The education and training industry used to be prosperous, but with the passage of time, 2023 seems to mark the end of the decade of the industry's first decade. As a veteran observer in the field of education and training, I believe that education and training may face great challenges in the future.
First of all, 2023 will usher in the loss of the demographic dividend. The gradual decline in the number of births has led to a decline in the number of kindergartens nationwide for the first time, and there are even kindergartens with zero enrollment. This change is not limited to kindergarten, but also extends to primary school. According to Mibasket Investment, children's art training institutions may be halved in the next 5 years. The decrease in the birth rate has not only led to a decline in enrollment, but will also gradually appear in the primary and junior high school stages after 5-7 years, bringing a serious impact on the education and training industry, which may lead to the emergence of a wave of closures.
Second, the tightening of regulatory policies has further narrowed the revenue space of education and training institutions. Academic training institutions have experienced the end of the rectification, from 1240,000 decreased to 4,932, and many places achieved zero. It is expected that driven by the time-limited price policy, it will be difficult for academic training institutions to maintain normal operations in areas other than county towns and prefecture-level cities. 2023 is also regarded as the last year of the transition period for non-academic training, and after the end of the transition period, it will enter a stage of strict inspection, and the impact on non-academic training institutions will become more and more significant.
Third, the rational choice of parents makes education and training face greater challenges. In the past 20 years of development, parents have gradually become more rational and have a thorough understanding of education and training policies. Parents are protected by the pre-payment system in the regulatory policy, through which they can refund their fees, suspend classes, and have the right to complain. This makes it more difficult for education and training institutions to operate.
On the whole, the challenges facing the education and training industry are not only temporary, but profound. Population decline, tightening regulations, and parents' rational choices will all affect the development of the education and training industry, putting it under unprecedented pressure. In these challenging times, education and training institutions need to prepare in advance for future changes in order to remain invincible in the highly competitive market.