According to the latest data, India's GDP grew by 7 year-on-year from July to September 20236%, much higher than the expectations of many economic analysts. This has once again made India one of the fastest-growing countries among the world's major economies. However, Japan** has raised questions about this data and argues that India's economic growth is largely dependent on the development of large companies, resulting in a high concentration of economic momentum and resources in a few large cities. This uneven development structure makes it difficult for large cities to build infrastructure, and at the same time pushes up the cost of public facilities such as housing, transportation, education and health care, which has a negative impact on the subsequent sustainable development. In addition, limited resources for development in rural areas and small and medium-sized cities, as well as high levels of corruption, further undermine entrepreneurship and employment opportunities.
However, we can think about these doubts from different angles in Japan. First, uneven development is normal in many developing economies. Rural areas and small and medium-sized cities are generally driven by less development than large cities, because they have more resources and opportunities. The leading development of some regions and industries can lead to growth in the national economy, and this phenomenon is common in catch-up economies. Therefore, India's high economic growth does not necessarily mean that it is uneven.
Second, Japan** is also debatable to question the lack of employment in India. Although the proportion of women in India's working population is relatively low, similar to Japanese society, there is a feudal concept of male superiority and inferiority. In fact, about 40 percent of housewives in Japan are not employed, reflecting the restrictions on women's employment in Japanese society. Therefore, Japan's suspicion of India seems somewhat inappropriate.
If we want to make reasonable doubts about India's GDP, we can analyze it from a more professional perspective. For example, we can refer to the National Economic Statistics Report published by the National Bureau of Statistics of India and note that India publishes data under two different statistical rules. One is the new statistical standard adopted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi after he came to power, called the "current growth rate". The other is the old statistical rule, which uses the method of aggregating the value added of various industries, i.e., the production method of GDP. There are some differences in the data obtained by these two statistical methods, which also reflects the complexity of India's GDP statistics and the possible statistical errors.
In addition, we can take a deeper look at and question the way India's GDP is calculated. In the field of agriculture, for example, there has been a change in the statistical methodology in India from the final yield to the consumption method. This has led to the inclusion of previously overlooked factors in GDP statistics, such as farm manure purchased by farmers. Such a change could lead to large discrepancies in statistics, which could affect the assessment of economic growth.
To sum up, Japan's questioning of India's GDP lacks professionalism and rigor to a certain extent, and the uneven development and employment issues they raise are one-sided to a certain extent. For India's economic development, we should pay more attention to the rationality and accuracy of statistical rules, as well as the structural adjustments and policy reforms behind economic growth. It is only on the basis of a comprehensive understanding and study of the relevant data that we can raise more targeted and rigorous questions about India's economic development.