Putin's recent characterization of the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a "civil war" has attracted widespread attention. What is the mystery behind this statement?We can analyze Putin's previous words and deeds, as well as his historical identification with Russia.
First of all, Putin has pointed out that the occurrence of a coup d'état in Ukraine will inevitably provoke a conflict with Russia, and this is precisely what the Americans have successfully achieved. This shows that Putin is critical of the political turmoil in Ukraine and sees it as the root cause of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. By characterizing the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a civil war, Putin is trying to highlight Ukraine's close ties and shared historical background with Russia. Putin's characterization that Russians and Ukrainians basically belong to the same ethnic group further emphasizes the peculiarity of Russian-Ukrainian relations and expresses Putin's desire for Russia and Ukraine to move towards unity and unanimity with the outside world.
Secondly, Putin has mentioned similar points in the past. He once said at the World Russian People's Council that Russia is returning to history and is getting stronger. According to this logic, 14 of the 15 countries that collapsed the Soviet Union, in addition to Russia, are likely to face similar problems as Ukraine. In particular, Belarus, as its closest neighbor, has also attracted Putin's attention for its choice to integrate into Russia. It can be seen from this that Putin has a clear strategic concept for the geopolitical development of Russia. He sees Russia as a great world power and hopes to restore the regions that historically belonged to Russia.
Based on the above views, we can see that behind Putin's characterization of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is his concern and hope for Ukraine, as well as the embodiment of his pride and ambition for Russia as a great power.
As the war progresses, Putin's perception and characterization of the Russian-Ukrainian war have undergone profound adjustments. At first, Putin repeatedly said that Russia was waging war to counter NATO's eastward expansion, not to restore the Soviet Union or occupy Ukrainian land. However, as the tide of war evolves, it seems that Putin's goal is not just to take the four eastern states of Ukraine, but perhaps even the entire territory of Ukraine. This adjustment reflects Putin's analysis of the war situation and changes in his strategic goals.
Putin recognizes that Ukraine's geopolitical importance is extremely high and of great importance for Russia. Therefore, he may decide to act more aggressively in the Russian-Ukrainian war to ensure that Russia takes the initiative in this war. This would not only mean taking the four states of eastern Ukraine, but could also involve a wider range of control and expansion. Putin's goal may be to completely annex Ukraine and reintegrate it into Russian territory.
No matter where the Russian-Ukrainian war ends up, Russia's rivalry with the Western world will continue. In the 30 years between the collapse of the Soviet Union and the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the friction between Russia and NATO was only a temporary truce. The fundamental lines of Russia and the Western world are different, and the contradictions and conflicts between the two cannot be eliminated. Russia will strive to restore its geopolitical turf and position, while the West will return to the Cold War-era line and devote itself to containing and suppressing Russia.
The intensification of Russia's confrontation with the Western world has provided more opportunities for China's strategic room for maneuver. With tensions between Russia and the Western world, China's strategic position in the international arena will become more prominent. China should seize this historic opportunity to make the best choice for its own country and actively participate in the game between Russia and the Western world.
Putin's characterization of the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a civil war shows his concern and hope for Ukraine, as well as his pride and ambition for Russia as a great power. With the development of the war, Putin's perception and characterization of the Russian-Ukrainian war have been profoundly adjusted, and his goal may not only be to take the four eastern states of Ukraine, but to completely annex Ukraine. In addition, Russia's confrontation with the Western world will continue, which gives China an opportunity for strategic room for maneuver.
In the current complex and volatile international situation, China should actively consider its own strategic position and choices. We should firmly safeguard China's core interests, strengthen exchanges and cooperation with other countries in the world, and promote the building of a fairer and more equitable international order. Only in this context can China play a better role in the international arena and achieve long-term peace and stability and sustainable development of the country.