The fire of skits ignited the capital market.
Recently, the producer of the popular short drama denied that the income exceeded 100 million in 8 days, and the topic rushed to the hot search. "Explosive drama making machine" Ningmeng Film and Television is "out of the circle" with the "Twenty-Nine" series with a C-end paid income of 10 million.
At the same time, the 2023 semi-annual report previously announced by Ningmeng Film and Television shows that its performance is not ideal.
Fuji Research According to the semi-annual report of Ningmeng Film and Television, it was found that in the first half of this year, Ningmeng Film and Television's revenue decreased by 12 year-on-year10%。At present, Ningmeng Film and Television is mainly facing problems such as declining revenue and over-reliance on copyrighted dramas, which is mainly due to the decline in revenue from Ningmeng Film and Television's copyrighted drama broadcasting rights businessAt the same time, under the tightening of policy supervision, the competition in the short drama industry continues to intensify, and the "explosive style making machine" seems to be out of order.
Ningmeng Film and Television is a Chinese drama company with rich copyright IP reserves, focusing on the creation of high-rated dramas, including "Thirty Only", "Little Farewell", "Little Joy" and so on.
As of December 5th, Hong Kong stocks**, Ningmeng Film and Television closed at 7HK$89 shares, corresponding to a total market capitalization of 284.4 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 26 yuan.)2 billion yuan);This compares to the market capitalization high of 115 in January this year3.5 billion Hong Kong dollars, and its market value has evaporated by 86HK$6.9 billion.
Fuji Research According to its semi-annual report, it was found that in the first half of this year, the revenue of Ningmeng Film and Television was 42.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1210%；For the same period, adjusted net profit was 13.9 billion yuan, an increase of 32 percent year-on-year0%。
In the same period, the income of Ningmeng Film and Television copyright broadcasting rights was 37.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1857%, and the current revenue accounted for 8934%。
Ningmeng Film and Television has successively launched high-quality copyright dramas such as "Thirty Only", "Little Joy", "Little Farewell", etc., so it is known as the "explosive style making machine" by the outside world.
In an old article in August ("Ningmeng Film and Television went public in Hong Kong this Wednesday, 8% of its income comes from copyright dramas"), we focused on Ningmeng Film and Television's three IPOs, and its road to relying on IP to continue its life is still full of unknowns.
Today, Ningmeng Film and Television is not only facing a decline in revenue, highly dependent on copyright dramas and other problems, but also facing the unsustainable question of the "explosive style making machine".
When policy supervision becomes stricter and the "involution" of the short drama industry intensifies, outside of "Twenty-Nine", can Ningmeng Film and Television find the next hit?As a result, Fuji Research has updated some of the data and charts from the August article, as follows:
The release price of Ningmeng Film and Television is 27HK$75 shares, the first ** IPO closed at 27HK$00 shares, down 27%。
Previously, it was submitted on April 8, 2022, and in the IPO public offering stage, Ningmeng Film and Television only received 081 times subscribed, the final number of offer shares allocated to the public offer was 122210,000 shares.
As a rising star, Ningmeng Film and Television is known as the "explosive drama maker", and it is similar to Noon Sunshine, Xinli Media, and Huace Film and Television (300133SZ), Yaoke Media, Ciwen Media (002343SZ) and is known as the "Big Six Film and Television Companies".
Although it is known as the "explosive style making machine", how many popular works will Ningmeng Film and Television have in the future is more like a "blind box" that has not yet been known.
On the occasion of its birth, Ningmeng Film and Television has its own halo.
The four co-founders are from the SMG department. Among them, Su Xiao has successively served as the deputy director of Dragon TV, the director and general manager of the film and television drama center of Shangshi Pictures;Zhou Yuan was the secretary of the board of directors of Shangshi Pictures;Chen Fei and Xu Xiaoou were the deputy general managers of Shangshi Pictures.
When he was in Shangshi Pictures, Su Xiao led classic TV series projects such as "Snail House", "Ups and Downs" and "Cliff".
According to the financial report, Su Xiao, Chen Fei, Xu Xiaoou, and Zhou Yuan are the four co-founders, with a total of 443%；According to the prospectus, Tencent, the second largest shareholder, has a shareholding ratio of 1897% to 1978%。
In addition, many actors and writers have also emerged in the equity structure of Ningmeng Film and Television. The prospectus discloses: Shanghai Fruit Investment Management Center (Shanghai Fruit) holds 3 shares of Ningmeng Pictures44%；Beijing Manfu Culture Communication *** also holds 039% equity.
Since its establishment in 2014, in just 9 years, Ningmeng Film and Television has jumped to the first echelon of film and television companies. Among its 15 copyright dramas, in addition to "Thirty Only", which exploded out of the circle, there are also real-life TV series such as "Little Farewell", "Little Joy", "Little Shede", and "Kyushu Ethereal Record", "Chosen Heaven" and other costume big IPs.
While constantly enriching the category of copyright dramas, Ningmeng Film and Television is also deeply engaged in the micro-short drama track, the well-produced micro-short drama "Twenty-Nine" broadcast on Douyin at the beginning of this year, and the second season of the follow-up short drama "Twenty-Nine".
Source: "Thirty Only", "Little Joy", "Kyushu Ethereal Record" and "Twenty-Nine" stills.
According to Frost & Sullivan, according to the Frost & Sullivan report, from 2019 to 2021, 6 of the 8 copyrighted dramas that have been broadcast by Ningmeng Film and Television are high-rated dramas, and the rate of high-rated dramas is as high as about 75%. Among the 3 dramas that have been broadcast in Ningmeng Pictures in 2021, 2 are high-quality dramas, with a boutique rate of about 667%。
Fuji Research found that the operating data of Ningmeng Film and Television is not stable. According to the financial report data, in the first half of 2020-2023, the operating income of Ningmeng Film and Television will be 142.6 billion yuan, 124.9 billion yuan, 95.1 billion yuan, 42.2 billion yuan, and its adjusted net profit was 24.3 billion yuan, 28 billion yuan, 14.2 billion yuan, 13.9 billion yuan.
Ningmeng Film and Television said in its financial report that the decrease in revenue in 2020 was caused by the decrease in revenue from copyright dramas. In 2020, its revenue from licensing of copyrighted drama broadcast rights fell by 26% year-on-year, mainly due to the higher average licensing fee and drama production fee for a costume drama in 2019.
In the first half of this year, the performance of Ningmeng Film and Television was dragged down by the decline in revenue from the broadcast rights business of copyright dramas. Compared with the same period last year, in the first half of this year, the number of copyright dramas broadcast by Ningmeng Film and Television in the first round decreased, with only one "Love Only", compared with two in the same period last year.
In the view of Fuji Research, due to the huge cost of production and distribution of copyright dramas, the performance of film and television companies fluctuates, which seems to have become a common feature of the industryNingmeng Film and Television also cannot escape the "curse" of the industry.
A studio's financial performance depends on contemporaneous episodic projects, and cost overruns can cause significant fluctuations in financial performance. In addition, the investment and revenue generated by different episodes are different.
According to the financial report data, in the first half of 2020-2023, the revenue of Huace Film and Television will be 373.2 billion yuan, 380.7 billion yuan, 247.5 billion yuan, 113.7 billion yuan;Ciwen Media's revenue was 67.4 billion yuan, 40.5 billion yuan, 46.6 billion yuan, 44 billion yuan;Straw Bear Entertainment's revenue was 95.2 billion yuan, 170.3 billion yuan, 98.1 billion yuan and 46.2 billion yuan, all in fluctuation.
From the perspective of gross profit margin, the performance of Ningmeng Film and Television is acceptable. The financial report shows that in the first half of 2020-2023, the gross profit of Ningmeng Pictures will be 54.5 billion yuan, 55.9 billion yuan, 37.4 billion yuan, 21 billion yuan, and its gross profit margin were. 7%。
In addition, there is a gap between the popularity of dramas produced by film and television companies and their revenue.
Fuji Research found that although the quality rate of Ningmeng Film and Television's dramas is higher than that of its peers, its overall revenue scale is still small compared with A-share peer listed companiesIn the past three years, Ningmeng Film and Television's revenue has continued to decline.
It is undeniable that from entrepreneurship to becoming a leader to being listed on the Hong Kong stock market, high-reputation dramas are the foundation of Ningmeng Film and Television, and it also determines its development ceiling.
However, the capital-intensive nature of drama production and distribution has put pressure on its net profit under the "curse" of the industry with fluctuating revenues, and it will face related risks if it is unable to grant the broadcast rights of dramas according to the distribution plan.
At present, there are three ways to monetize domestic ** content: content licensing, content marketing and content subscription. Ningmeng Film and Television is mainly engaged in content licensing and is in the middle of the industrial chain.
According to Huajing Intelligence Network, the scale of the domestic drama market in 2021 will be 90.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22%, which is expected to reach 99.6 billion yuan in 2025.
The revenue structure of Ningmeng Film and Television is relatively simple, and the licensing of copyright dramas contributes the vast majority of revenue. According to the financial report, from 2020 to the first half of 2023, the revenue from the broadcasting rights of Ningmeng film and television rights will be 120.7 billion yuan, 105.1 billion yuan, 88.9 billion yuan, 37.7 billion yuan, accounting for the total operating income. 34%。
Although Ningmeng Film and Television tried to diversify and expand, such as content marketing and other businesses, it still could not support the "other leg" of revenue. In the first half of this year, the revenue of Ningmeng Film and Television's other businesses was 5 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 400%, and the current revenue accounted for only 132%。
Dismantling the copyright income of Ningmeng Film and Television, its customers include Tencent, iQiyi and other head online ** platforms and major TV stations.
According to the financial report data, from 2020 to 2022, its top 5 customer revenue accounted for a high proportion. 0%；During the same period, the proportion of revenue from Tencent was as follows: 7%。
Fuji Research noticed that Ningmeng Film and Television has a high degree of dependence on Tencent. Tencent is not only the second largest shareholder of Ningmeng Pictures, but also its largest customer in 2018 and 2020, and its fifth and third largest customers in 2019 and 2021.
From 2020 to the first half of 2023, Ningmeng Film and Television and Tencent have cooperated in seven film and television dramas: "There Are Arbors in the South", "Fuyao", "Full-time Master", "Kyushu Ethereal Record", "Thirty Only", "Eternal Juechen" and "Love Only".
Backed by Tencent, it is also a friend and foe. Ningmeng Pictures once admitted in the prospectus that since Tencent Group and the Group are both engaged in the production of dramas, Tencent Group may have potential competition with them.
Or due to the delay in payment of online ** platforms, TV stations, etc., the accounts receivable of Ningmeng Film and Television remain high, and the liquidity is under pressure. From 2020 to the first half of 2023, the accounts receivable of Ningmeng Film and Television will be 25.6 billion yuan, 38.6 billion yuan, 35.6 billion yuan, 27.1 billion yuan, and its net profit in 2020 is only 06.3 billion yuan.
In the view of Fuji Research, at present, the number of well-known domestic online platforms is limited, and the right to speak is stronger with the blessing of high traffic, as a pioneer in the content participation of online platforms, Ningmeng Film and Television is still in the middle of the industry, if it can't get rid of the copyright drama authorization as soon as possible, it is inevitable to be shackled downstream.
In addition, backed by the big tree of "two shareholders" Tencent, Ningmeng Film and Television has been shaded and accompanied by risks. Relying too much on a single platform can be a constraint to its developmentIf the cooperation changes, it will directly affect its revenue.
The "film and television winter" shrouded by the epidemic has not completely passed, and the debt repayment pressure of Ningmeng Pictures remains high.
According to the financial report data, from 2020 to the first half of 2023, the net liabilities of Ningmeng Film and Television will be about 94.2 billion yuan, 132.2 billion yuan, 239 billion yuan, 25$2.9 billion.
Due to the fact that film and television dramas are often produced in large quantities and actors' salaries are often hundreds of millions of yuan, in the cold winter of film and television, the ability to control costs is scarce but especially important.
According to the prospectus, from 2020 to the first half of 2023, the sales cost of Ningmeng Film and Television will be 88 billion yuan, 69 billion yuan, 57.8 billion yuan, 21.2 billion yuan, accounting for total revenue. 24%。
On the other side of the coin, the rise of short ** has also had a huge impact on the long ** (movies, TV series) market.
After 12 consecutive years of losses, iQiyi, a major downstream customer of Ningmeng Film and Television and an online ** platform, will see the dawn of profitability in Q1 2023, with a net profit of 3 in Q1 20235.6 billion yuan;Youku was merged into Alida Entertainment, and the total loss in the past three years was as high as tens of billions of yuanTencent** has not disclosed any data separately recently.
At present, the entertainment policy is constantly tightening, and because the production cycle of film and television dramas is as long as 2-3 years, it is impossible to predict the risk of future policy changes;Secondly, whether the participating artists "collapsed" also brought uncertainty to the broadcast of the series.
In the view of Fuji Research, risk has always been a key word around the film and television industry, and it is difficult for Ningmeng Film and Television to stand alone;This is inseparable from the characteristics of the film and television industry, but ultimately depends on the business decisions of enterprises.
After all, a TV series must go through many links such as script, shooting, production, distribution, and marketing, and any mistake at any threshold may cause heavy losses.
Under the setback of industry growth and performance pressure, Ningmeng Film and Television is also seeking new growth points, and "micro-short dramas" and "going overseas" are the directions it wants to exert in the future.
In 2021, Ningmeng Film and Television established a subsidiary "Good Ability", and at the beginning of 2023, the short drama "Twenty-Nine" produced by "Good Ability" will be launched during the Spring Festival, with the highest ** volume of a single episode exceeding 1400 million times. In 2022, 8 short dramas produced by Ningmeng Film and Television will have a total ** volume of more than 500 million, of which 5 will meet the platform traffic sharing standard, and 2 will exceed 100 million times.
Source: freepik
In addition, in the first half of this year, Ningmeng Film and Television established an overseas business entity platform "Ningmeng International", which is mainly responsible for the overseas distribution of dramas, the production and distribution of overseas native content, and the commercialization of overseas IP-related operations.
Among them, "Xiaomin's Family" and "Love Only" have been broadcast on overseas platforms. At the same time, Ningmeng Film and Television has also set foot in overseas localized production and co-produced IP dramas with overseas teams. In the first half of this year, the Thai version of "Thirty Only" has officially started shooting in Bangkok and is currently being filmed.
With the tightening of network supervision, the "involution" of the industry has intensified, and problems such as the mixing of production content and the difficulty of breaking through the scale of account sharing have followed. If the risk is realized, will Ningmeng Film and Television, which has tight cash flow, have the ability to resist risks?
On the tuyere, pigs can take off.
In the past, the film and television industry was not short of money. In the past 20 years, coal mines, real estate, P2P and other funds have flowed into the industry to get rich overnight, and the film and television industry once had hot money, and countless "pigs" have taken advantage of the wind.
At present, Ningmeng Film and Television is mainly facing problems such as declining revenue and over-reliance on copyrighted dramas, which is mainly due to the decline in revenue from Ningmeng Film and Television's copyrighted drama broadcasting rights businessAt the same time, under the tightening of policy supervision, the competition in the short drama industry continues to intensify, and the "explosive style making machine" seems to be out of order.
When policy supervision becomes stricter and the "involution" of the short drama industry intensifies, outside of "Twenty-Nine", can Ningmeng Film and Television find the next hit?
Some references in this article:
1."Four Hot Money in the Film and Television Industry, From Coal Boss to BAT", New Drama Observation.
2."Who will become the "number one player" in the explosion of micro-short dramas that lead to nuggets of listed companies?》
3."Ningmeng Film and Television's net profit increased to 1 in the first half of the year3.1 billion yuan content marketing revenue increased by 150%", China**.com.
4."Short Drama Hurricane, Who is Making Money", Interface News.
5."Ningmeng Film and Television's half-year revenue fell by 12%, the copyright drama business lagged behind, and Su Xiao's going to sea caused controversy", Bullet Finance.
Author |Yi Xin Lu Cun
Typography | cathy
Executive Producer | yoda
Produced by |No two research