According to Wang Shi, the adjustment time of China's real estate market will not be less than 3-5 years. By comparing the bursting cycles of the real estate bubble in Japan and the United States, he believes that China also needs to go through a long adjustment process. At present, China's real estate market has been prosperous for 23 years, and once it enters the adjustment cycle, it needs to go through the process of de-bubble and deleveraging, and gradually return to residential attributes. Such adjustments are unlikely to be completed in the short term. In addition, many real estate companies are currently facing debt crises and unfinished buildings, and it will take time to solve these problems.
There are some people who disagree with the timing of the real estate market adjustment. They believe that despite some regulatory policies and downward pressures, China has a large population and urbanization, and the demand for the real estate market remains. As a result, they believe that the adjustment cycle may not be as long as it used to be, and that there may be a faster recovery and stabilization.
Wang Shi pointed out that some real estate companies that blindly expanded and had high debt ratios in the past may face mergers and acquisitions or even bankruptcy. Evergrande Real Estate, Country Garden and other large real estate companies have defaulted on their debts. According to the data, as of October 2023, more than 160 real estate companies have declared bankruptcy and closure.
Some people agree with the view that the real estate market will be reshuffled. They believe that the rapid development of the real estate industry in the past few years has led to the blind expansion of many real estate companies and the high debt ratio, and this unsustainable development model is facing a test. Factors such as intensified market competition, tightened financing environment and policy regulation will trigger market reshuffle and consolidation, which is conducive to the survival of the fittest and promotes the healthy development of the industry.
Wang Shi believes that unlike Japan and the United States, China's real estate market is a policy market. He believes that through the introduction of various rescue policies, the large fluctuations in the real estate market can be avoided and a soft landing can be achieved. In the future, the real estate market will gradually achieve healthy development in the form of "time for space" to minimize the impact on the domestic economy.
There are some people who are conservative about the optimism about the future development of the real estate market. They believe that the current real estate market is facing multiple challenges, such as financing pressure, inventory pressure and policy regulation. They believe that we should adhere to the determination of real estate market regulation, avoid overheating the market, and promote the healthy development of the real estate industry.
From the point of view of Wang Shi's ** and different opinions on China's real estate market, there is still uncertainty about the judgment of the real estate trend in the next few years. Although Wang Shi, as a well-known figure in the real estate industry, his views have often been consistent with the facts over the years, but we can't accept his ** in its entirety.
First, despite some challenges and adjustment cycles in China's real estate market, China, one of the world's most populous countries, continues to urbanize, and the demand for housing remains strong. This also provides some support for the stability and recovery of the real estate market.
Secondly, China has always attached great importance to the stability and development of the real estate market. **Through various regulatory policies and measures, we actively respond to market fluctuations and risks, and are committed to promoting the long-term healthy development of the real estate market. This provides a stable expectation and policy environment for the market.
Finally, the development of the real estate market is affected by a variety of factors, including the economic situation, policy environment, financial conditions, etc. Changes in these factors will have an important impact on the real estate market, so we need to consider various factors comprehensively to form an objective and comprehensive judgment and**.
In short, Wang Shi's ** provides a reference for the direction of the real estate market, but we cannot completely rely on his **. Market monitoring should be strengthened, market dynamics should be paid attention to, and investment strategies should be adjusted in a timely manner to cope with market changes. In the future development, the real estate market still has great potential and opportunities, but it is also necessary to be vigilant against market risks, strengthen risk management and rational investment.