Corn ** fell below one yuan, and the market ** will not improve.
Grains continue to move lower, and a drop below a dollar is inevitable.
In recent times, Shandong's grain ** across the country has shown a "linear" trend, among which, the northeast region has the largest decline, with a maximum drop of 50 yuan a day. For example, in Heilongjiang, the current average price of corn is approaching 1The "floor price" of 1 yuan per kilogram means that corn under one dollar has become inevitable. In this case, the fear of the grain hoarder will be completely aroused, and the corn ** will be impacted. There is less than half a month of New Year, and more than 50 days of Spring Festival, which has caused more pressure on the sales and sales of grain depositors. Due to the increasing pressure of supply, coupled with the lack of willingness of merchants to set up warehouses, therefore, deep processing enterprises continue to depress, while feed companies are purchasing. In this context, corn ** will continue to decline in the near future, and the "floor price" will be a basic **.
The impact of corn price reduction on farmers and feed enterprises.
While the declining corn has caused a lot of trouble for the industry as a whole, there are a few positives. First of all, when the ** of corn falls to the "floor price", businessmen will inevitably have the psychology of opening positions. Although businessmen are very careful now, as long as there is a profit of 100 yuan, there will definitely be more and more people who are willing to take risks. Secondly, the feed company, which has been watching the play for a long time, will definitely buy it at an astonishing speed when the corn ** touches the "floor". So, although the current grain ** is down, it is a good opportunity for businessmen and feed companies.
The role of reducing food prices on the trend of food prices after the Spring Festival.
Based on the current shipment situation, this year's shipment rate is likely to recover by more than 50% by the end of this year. Especially in North China, Shandong and other places, the shipment volume before the Spring Festival will play a positive role in promoting the later stage. Among them, North China, Shandong and other places are more likely to rise sharply, thereby promoting the price increase of corn in Northeast China. In previous reports, we have pointed out several times that despite the impact of holiday stockpiling, there is still a need to lower expectations for oil prices. However, in the current corn market, due to the existence of a large profit margin, it is inevitable that the market will rebound in the case of manufacturers preparing in advance. In fact, the profitability of the intensive production enterprises of agricultural products has been continuously improved, which has created conditions for the improvement of food products.
In addition, with the decrease in the purchase of grain reserves, the transaction price has gradually decreased, coupled with the inventory fluctuations of major granaries, the support for grain price increases has gradually weakened, thus forming an overwhelming "suppressive force". Overall, in the coming period, the corn market will continue to fluctuate**, gradually to the "floor price" around, however, grain holders still need to pay attention to the Spring Festival delivery situation, because when the Spring Festival shipments exceed 50%, next year's corn or will have a new round of rise.
Wheat** has fallen due to cereals, but there is room for growth.
It can be clearly felt that with the rapid decline of the grain market, and with it is accompanied by a follow-up **, which makes the psychological panic of the grain holders. Some people are even more pessimistic about the future trend, they say, only to 1When it is 4 yuan a catty, it will really start. However, due to the grain factor, the price of food has fallen, but this is also to be expected. Again, the editors stressed two views, one is that there is limited room for wheat prices to fall, and the other is that wheat prices will rise. At this point, it's up to you to decide how the game will be won.
Taking into account the policy factors, supply and demand factors, festival factors, warehouse construction cost factors, market surplus and other factors, it is believed that there is a relatively large upward trend in China's grain production at present. And in 2024, after the new wheat is listed, the ** of wheat may be reduced to 14 yuan kg, but at the moment it seems impossible. Although the state has now begun to distribute grain, the minimum purchase price is still at 15 yuan per kilogram, even if the trading volume drops sharply, there is no meaning of price reduction. This is clearly a sign of abundant supply.
To sum up, for the ** before the Spring Festival, we believe that during the Spring Festival, there is a very likely round of price increases, and it is even possible to fall back to 15 yuan jin;As the Chinese New Year approaches, it is likely to rise to 155 yuan per kilogram, there is a high probability of breaking through 16 yuan kg. This week, it is necessary to pay close attention to the situation of grain holders out of the warehouse, and if there is no significant increase, a slight increase in grain prices is inevitable. Although oil prices will continue to fluctuate, a second ** is unlikely. Although supply and demand are in the game, in the long run, sellers gradually gain the upper hand.