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Text|severn
Edit|Since the end of the Cold War and the United States became the strongest country in the world, there have been people speculating about when the United States will decline, but more than 30 years later, the United States is still strong.
However, there are still some people who are not optimistic about the United States and believe that its decline is inevitable, especially since the situation of the United States itself has become very bad in recent years.
The decay of the hegemonic dividend, the popular discontent caused by the long-term low instability, and the imminent Gracchus trap all show that the decline and ** of the United States has begun.
The dividends of US hegemony expire
Since the beginning of modern society, from Portugal, Spain, and the Netherlands to the United Kingdom, and then to the United States, these countries have all prospered with hegemony.
The difference is that in the past it relied on colonies, now it relies on finance.
As the only superpower in our time, the United States is naturally the world's largest financial colony.
Through investments, bonds, commodities, and a plethora of financial derivatives, the United States has reaped a large amount of hegemonic dividends from the world.
Take debt, for example.
As of August 2023, the U.S. has a total global debt of 327 trillion dollars.
For other countries, debt of this magnitude is undoubtedly a heavy burden.
But for the United States, debt is one of its means of invading the global economy.
Putin pointed out sharply:"The United States is a parasite of the world economy, and such a huge debt means that Americans are fed by the economies of other countries!”
Other countries, intimidated by US hegemony and dominated by the US dollar, are only allowed by the Americans to suck the blood of the global economy.
In 2002, the International Development Relief Non-Governmental Organization issued a report that 97% of the benefits generated by the international ** went to developed and middle-income countries, and only 3% of the benefits were obtained by developing countries and poor countries.
As the leader of the WTO, the United States is undoubtedly the biggest beneficiary of the world.
In the past, a $4 shirt produced in China could be sold for $40 at Walmart in the United States, and Chinese manufacturers could only get a very small percentage of the profits, but contributed tens of dollars of GDP to the United States.
According to a study conducted in the West, between 1998 and 2003, baby clothing made in China alone generated $400 million in GDP for the United States.
As a result of the purchase of low-cost export goods from China, the living standards of low-income people in the United States have increased by about 10 percent.
In other words, it is the hard-earned money of the Chinese that improves the living standards of Americans.
Of course, this was only 20 years ago.
In recent years, under the impact of the multipolar trend in the world, US hegemony has shown a trend of decline, and the dividends brought by hegemony are also on the verge of an expiration date.
Especially since the global financial crisis in 2008, all major countries in the world have been affected to varying degrees.
In contrast, the US dollar and the euro area have been hit the hardest, while rising emerging countries such as China and India have suffered less damage.
The financial crisis has not only further accelerated the process of power dispersion and transfer in the international system, but also accelerated the collective decline of Western countries and the rise of emerging economies in the Third World.
This is the first time since the formation of the modern international system that international power has shifted from north to south and from west to east.
Among them, the most obvious is the accelerated decline of US hegemony, especially the decline of US dollar hegemony.
The most significant manifestation of the dollar's decline in status is the decline in the influence of the United States in international economic organizations.
Take, for example, the International Monetary Organization.
On November 5, 2010, the organization adopted a new round of SDR share reform.
The weight of the dollar fell from 44% to 419%, and the weight of the yen will be reduced from 11% to 94%, and the share of the renminbi is from 372% to 639%。
In addition, the withdrawal weights of major emerging economies have increased to varying degrees.
This shows that the dollar's dominant position in the international financial community has shown a downward trend.
The U.S. dollar has always been the cornerstone of U.S. financial hegemony, and the decline of the U.S. dollar's status will inevitably lead to a reduction in the U.S. position in the international financial order, and the foundation of financial hegemony will be eroded by international organizations created by other actors.
All this indicates that the dividends of US hegemony have expired and that the situation of decline is imminent.
But Americans don't seem to be aware of this, and instead go further and further down the path of self-decline.
Deliver turmoil to the world
The most obvious manifestation of the United States' "self-inflicted evil" is that it has gone against the trend of global peace and development and insisted on sending turmoil, or arms and wars to the whole world.
Between 2017 and 2021, the value of arms transactions worldwide decreased by 4 compared to 2012-20166%, but in the same period, the export of US arms increased by as much as 14%, and the proportion of the global arms market also rose from 32% to 39%.
The United States has bluntly admitted that transfer and national defense are important tools of US foreign policy, and said that when the United States sells foreign arms, it will consider a variety of factors such as politics, military, economics and end-use.
The West pointed out that the United States established a base for arms sales in the two world wars, and then during the Cold War, it sent large-scale arms to the Western camp on the grounds of resisting communism.
Since the beginning of the 21st century, the outbreak of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq has ushered in an unprecedented period of prosperity for the US industry, which made a fortune in arms sales.
Since 2018, all of the world's top five military enterprises have settled in the United States.
In particular, Lockheed firmly occupies more than 10% of the world's total arms sales with tens of billions of dollars in annual arms sales!
The international community generally believes that the sustainable development of American industrial enterprises is inseparable from the support of the United States.
Over the past 20 years, in order to influence national defense policy and enable the arms they manufacture to enter the international market, US industrial enterprises have donated as much as $2.5 billion in "lobbying" expenses to their personnel alone.
The result of such a great deal of effort is the strong support of the previous leaders for the development of the military industry.
Some ** "bigwigs" even came to military enterprises in person after leaving their posts and used their network resources to influence ** foreign policy.
While seeking foreign arms sales for enterprises, they also make a lot of money.
And the direct consequence of the collusion between the military-industrial enterprises and politicians is the continuous war.
It is no exaggeration to say that there are wars in the world, and there are Americans.
Even if the United States is not directly involved, the United States will never be indispensable on the battlefield.
The tension between Russia and Ukraine in 2022 is the result of the United States' push for NATO expansion.
After the outbreak of war between the two countries, the US ** industrial companies were like sharks smelling blood, and the stock prices of various companies soared.
An American investor** issued an article saying: "The outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine means that the arms sales market may usher in expansion." ”
An executive of a state-of-the-art company does not hide his greed:"War is the greatest opportunity for overseas arms sales. ”
The U.S. "Contemporary" reported that a U.S. think tank began to incite contradictions between the two sides a few months before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and called on the United States to step up action and carry out military preparations.
And the funders behind this think tank are none other than the major military enterprises in the United States.
The outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in October this year is also inseparable from the United States.
While the Palestinian people were besieged in the Gaza Strip and ravaged by war, the ruthless American capitalists were the first to think about how to send more arms to the Middle East.
Naturally, this move has aroused the spurning of people all over the world, and even in the United States, demonstrations in support of Palestine and against the United States' instigation of war have repeatedly erupted.
Not long ago, after the expiration of the four-day truce in Gaza, the American people were still dissatisfied, and thousands of marchers walked onto the Manhattan Bridge, blocked traffic, and demanded that the White House mediate the war and save the lives of the Palestinian people.
This shows that regardless of whether the demands and wishes of the American people can be fulfilled or not, the decline and decline within the United States are inevitable.
Gracchus Reform Trap
Finally, the Gracchus reform trap that the United States is on the verge of becoming the last straw that overwhelms the United States.
The Gracchus Reform refers to the land-centered reform implemented by the Gracchus brothers in Rome at the beginning of the 2nd century BC.
In 133 B.C., his elder brother Tibilus Gracchus was elected tribune and introduced an agrarian reform bill that made every Roman citizen eligible for land, which was hereditary, rent-free, and could not be sold or transferred.
Tibilus's land bill seemed very reasonable and in accordance with the legal process, which would allow more Roman people to obtain the most important land, promote the employment of the Roman vagrants, and maintain social balance and stability.
At the same time, however, the reform bill touched on the core interests of the Roman Senate.
As a result, the implementation of the bill encountered many practical difficulties, the senate refused to provide funds, and the funds to supervise the implementation of the bill were pitiful.
Gracchus Brothers.
And the Senate only agreed to give the land to the poor people, but did not give them some money to buy seeds and farm tools.
Tybilio's land reform was helplessly hovered in mid-air.
In the summer of 133 B.C.E., Tibilus attempted to circumvent the Senate, free the treasury funds, and delegate the handling of state affairs to the Citizens' Assembly.
This move was not just about the interests of the Senate, but about the ownership of Roman rule.
Eventually, the powerful Senate took the plunge and violently eliminated Tibilus.
Ten years later, his younger brother Gaio Gracchus, with the support of the Roman commoners, served two terms as tribune.
He took over the banner of his brother's land reform and expanded the scope of reform to include the judiciary, citizenship, and army formation.
Unfortunately, Gaio still did not escape the Senate, and was executed on Mount Alventine in 131 BC, and the Gracchus brothers failed in their reforms.
Although it has been more than 2,000 years since the Gracchus reform, it is a typical case of the failure of the reform of the Western historical empire, and then its collapse.
Reforms that conform to the trend of the times collide with conservative vested interest groups, resulting in the country repeatedly missing the historical opportunity of domestic reform and moving forward, and in the end it can only regret to be out of the game.
The United States today is facing the same problems as the Roman Empire.
At a time when the countries of the world are in a state of strategic nuclear equilibrium, a world war is almost impossible, and the most likely factors that can lead to the decline of empires are internal stagnation and chaos and corruption.
Since the information revolution in the 60s of the 20th century, the long-wave economic cycle of the old era has come to an end, and a new round of long-wave economic cycle spawned by emerging technologies has begun.
Coupled with the turbulent domestic situation, the United States has reached a critical juncture in its historical development.
If the "Gracchus reform" cannot be carried out smoothly, it may be inevitable that the United States will be left behind.
Conclusion
The declining dividends of hegemony, the discord between the people caused by the turbulent situation, and the imminent trap of Gracchus reform are the three major problems that the United States is facing.
If any problem is not handled properly, this behemoth may never return on the road of **.
From this perspective, Putin's predictions and warnings seem to be reasonable.
References
Yang Duogui, Zhou Zhitian. The Dividend of Hegemony: The Source of America's Unearned Gains[J].Hongqi Manuscripts,2015(03):33-35
Cheng Shijie, Wang Wenwen, Chen Xin, etc. How much turmoil does the United States export to the world[n].Global Times, 2021-07-07(007).
Cai Kaiyu. A Review of the Reform of the Gracchus Brothers[J].Legal Expo,2017(11):191-192