Although Chinese Insurance premiums have maintained growth, due to short-term factors, the profit growth rate in 2023 will be low, and with the disappearance of short-term effects, it is expected that the year-on-year profit growth rate of Chinese Insurance in 2024 may return to normal levels.
The special author of this journal is Fang Fei.
According to the third quarter report of 2023 released by Chinese People's Insurance, the operating income in the third quarter was 41866.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43%；Achieved net profit attributable to the parent company of 19.4 billion yuan, down 155%。
In the first three quarters, Chinese Insurance achieved property insurance revenue of 34603.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86%, and underwriting profit declined to 5737.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39%, due to the increase in the company's overall COR;The premium income of motor insurance and non-motor insurance increased year-on-year respectively65%。In terms of auto insurance, it benefited from the auto market** to drive new car sales and support the growth of premiumsIn terms of non-motor insurance, the proportion of premiums increased slightly by 1%, and the product structure continued to be upgraded. Among the non-motor insurance, the premium income of agricultural insurance, accidental injury and health insurance, and other insurance types increased year-on-year respectively4%。
In the first three quarters, PICC Life Insurance achieved 132 insurance service revenues1.6 billion yuan, down 131%；The value of new business in the first half of the year was 24900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 668%；PICC Health achieved 191 income from insurance services1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 165%。
In the first three quarters, Chinese Insurance achieved 128 investment income and fair value change profit and loss0.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7166%。
Judging from the latest October data, although the growth rate of PICC property insurance premiums in October fell month-on-month, it is still expected to maintain single-digit growth in 2023. In October, the company's property insurance business achieved 302 original insurance premium income3.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%, of which the growth rate of auto insurance is 63%, and the growth rate of non-motor insurance was -34%, the growth rate of auto insurance continued to improve, and the growth rate of non-auto insurance turned negative month-on-month.
For auto insurance, the continuous increase in the auto market in October drove the release of consumer demand for car purchases, which in turn promoted a significant improvement in new car sales and formed a strong support for the growth rate of auto insurance premiums (retail sales of passenger cars in the narrow sense increased by 10 percent year-on-year in October2%）。For non-auto insurance, the premium growth rate of liability insurance, corporate property insurance, and freight insurance continued to grow positively in October, while the premium growth rate of agricultural insurance and health insurance turned negative month-on-month, which was the main reason for the pressure on the growth rate of non-auto insurance in October.
From the perspective of COR, the frequency of natural disasters in October has significantly improved compared with the third quarter, and it is expected that under the combined effect of factors such as the strengthening of regulatory control over auto insurance costs, the company's continuous strengthening of risk management and control, and sufficient withholding reserves, Chinese Insurance is expected to achieve the higher target of "97% for auto insurance and 100% for non-auto insurance" set at the beginning of the year.
On the other hand, the life insurance business continued to adjust in October, but it is a fact that the NBV growth for the whole year is positive. For the life insurance business, in October, PICC's life insurance business fell by 8 year-on-year4%, of which, the first-year premium of long-term insurance fell by 80% year-on-year6%, and the month-on-month decline continued to expand (-543%), which is expected to be due to weak sales of new orders due to product switching. For the health insurance business, the company's health insurance business fell by 7% year-on-year in October6%, of which the first-year premium of long-term insurance fell by 38% year-on-year7%, which is in line with the trend of life insurance business.
Overall, Chinese's life insurance business is still in a phased recuperation period, but the company will achieve NBV38 in the first half of 20234.5 billion yuan, which has exceeded 37 in the whole year of 2022At the level of 0.4 billion yuan, it is a foregone conclusion to achieve positive growth in NBV throughout the year.
In the first 10 months, Chinese Insurance achieved a cumulative original insurance premium income of 57591.8 billion yuan, a new high in the same period, a year-on-year increase of 779%；Among them, life insurance 9452.6 billion yuan, property insurance 43980.7 billion yuan, health insurance 4158.5 billion yuan.
Specifically, in the first 10 months, PICC property insurance premiums increased by 72%, mainly due to the year-on-year increase of 5% in motor vehicle insurance and agricultural insurance5% and 149%, contributing 1205.5 billion and 70800 million yuan increment;PICC life insurance premiums increased by 99%, mainly due to the year-on-year increase of 36 in the first year of long-term insurance and the renewal of long-term insurance9% and 59%, contributing 641.1 billion and 254.3 billion yuan increment. PICC's health insurance premiums increased by 9%, mainly due to the year-on-year increase of 38% in the first year of long-term insurance and short-term insurance7% and 68%, contributing 112.6 billion and 117.2 billion yuan increment.
According to the analysis of China Post**, although the premium income of Chinese Insurance has maintained growth, it is expected that the profit growth rate in 2023 will be low, mainly due to the following three reasons: First, affected by the catastrophe factor, the economic loss caused by natural disasters in China in 2023 will hit the highest level in the past three years, and affected by this, the net loss of Chinese Insurance in the first nine months of the catastrophe increased by 61 percent year-on-year8%；Second, with the end of the epidemic, the intensity of social traffic travel has rebounded, and the accident rate will gradually increase in 2023The third is the implementation of the "New Financial Instrument Standards" to superimpose the impact of capital market fluctuations on current investment returns. However, in the long run, these factors only have a short-term effect, and it is expected that the year-on-year profit growth rate of Chinese Insurance Company in 2024 may return to normal levels.