ST Hongda's share price fell below 1 yuan, sounding the delisting alarm at face value, and Hongda's convertible bonds also fell to around 75 yuan, 7 from the face value5% off, bond properties are threatened. It should be noted that for ST Hongda, which is at risk of delisting, the 75 yuan Hongda convertible bond may not be cheap, and investors can refer to the valuation method of corporate bonds for investment judgment, but this kind of bond is not suitable for blindness.
ST Hongda's share price fell below 1 yuan, which is by no means a good thing for investors who hold Hongda convertible bonds. There is a major premise for many concepts such as the hedging function, the first attribute, the bond attribute, and the conversion premium rate of convertible bonds, that is, if the company does not have problems, investors can hold bonds, and finally can expect that the company can perform in accordance with the agreement of the convertible bonds.
If there is a risk of delisting of a listed company, even if the stock price is low, when the corporate bonds default, how high the value of pure debt is nothing, and the transfer of shares can only get the first that has been delisted, and it is a very uncomfortable choice for investors to turn or not.
As ST Hongda's share price fell below 1 yuan, the face value of the delisting alarm sounded, Hongda convertible bonds also fell sharply, and the trading ** fell to 60 on December 2525 yuan, the latest ** to about 75 yuan, so how should Hongda convertible bonds be valued now?ST Hongda's lowest share price is 084 yuan, currently 092 yuan, the latest stock price is blocked on the price limit, and there are obviously funds trying to return to the stock price of 1 yuan, so that ST Hongda can get rid of the risk of delisting.
From an investor's point of view, they certainly don't want ST Hongda to be delisted. However, if ST Hongda's performance and fundamentals fail to meet investors' expectations, then the company still has the possibility of delisting at par value in the future. Theoretically speaking, the ** of Hongda's convertible bonds reflects the probability of delisting expected by investors.
If ST Hongda is exempt from delisting, then its convertible bonds are worth 100 yuan, and if ST Hongda is delisted, the convertible bonds are worth 20 yuan, then the 60 yuan convertible bonds** express that ST Hongda has a 50% possibility of delisting. And in ST Hongda 0When the 88 yuan stock price closed the fall limit, investors believed that the probability of its delisting was about half of the likelihood. And when December 26 ST Hongda from the lowest 084 yuan** to 092 yuan and blocked the price limit, investors saw the hope of getting rid of the risk of delisting, at this time Hongda convertible bonds from around 60 yuan ** to 75 yuan above, indicating that investors expect ST Hongda's delisting probability to be reduced to 3125%。
Of course, the expected probability is a very subjective judgment in itself, although the final result is either delisting or avoiding delisting, but in this process, investors' expectations will continue to change. If ST Hongda's share price successfully returns to above 1 yuan, then Hongda's ** convertible bond may return to around 100 yuan, but if you want to be truly exempt from delisting, the company's performance must return to a normal level, only the stock price can be supported by performance, in order to completely stay away from the risk of delisting, and the convertible bond ** can also be valued according to the normal valuation logic.
However, for investors, for convertible bonds with delisting risks in the underlying stock, it is not suitable to blindly ** before the delisting risk is not completely eliminated, after all, once delisted, the ** of convertible bonds may still plummet.
Beijing Business Daily commentator Zhou Kejing.