**: Giant Elephant Gold
Non-farm payrolls Yesterday, the U.S. job market reappeared in the evening after experiencing a weaker-than-expected U.S. October JOLTS job opening. According to the latest data, ADP employment in the United States1 increased by 10 in November30,000, the market expectation was 130,000, and the ADP was revised down to 1060,000 instead of the previously reported 1130,000 people. On the wage front, wages rose 5% year-on-year in November, accompanied by modest job growth6%, which is the smallest increase since September '21. The further weakening of the labor market gave momentum to the continued downward trend of gold price bulls, and after the release of the evening data, ** briefly rose.
In addition, according to the latest data from the World Association, global ETF outflows slowed significantly in November, with geopolitical risks and investors driving gold prices, but this year, total global ETF holdings fell by 7%, while total assets under management increased by 5% in the case of gold prices. The positive performance of global central banks this year has played a supportive role in gold prices. At the same time, central banks will use ** as an alternative reserve currency performance is more obvious. As the Fed 2 is about to enter its interest rate cut cycle, the market remains bullish on gold prices. In the evening, the market will also experience the impact of the US jobless claims for the week to December 2 and the US wholesale sales monthly data for October3, and the end of the triangle will also choose the direction again, so it is important to pay attention to before the non-farm payrolls data.
Yesterday, the longs and shorts maintained a range, and the bears failed to break through the new low again, and then entered the process of choosing the direction of the longs and bears. From the trend point of view, since the high **, the bears ** trend appeared behind the disk, the bulls reappeared**, from yesterday's ** effect, the bears are still very strong, and a triangle is currently formed, and the day will choose to break through the end. From the point of view of indicators, on the 30-minute period, the MACD indicator fast and slow lines Diff and DEA are running near the 0 axis, and the longs and bears are temporarily in balance.
Yesterday, **bulls** to 24Blocked near 350, after which the bears continued to the downside and made new lows again, with stronger momentum. Judging from the trend, the bearish trend is still ongoing, and it is showing a five-wave trend, which has entered the last wave, and is about to reach the previous bullish rising point, where there will be some support, easy to produce. From the indicator point of view, the 1-hour MACD indicator fast and slow line Diff and DEA are running below the 0 axis, and after experiencing a divergence, it is possible to form a secondary divergence.
On the daily cycle chart of the U.S. dollar index, after the recent bulls formed a strong bottom parting structure at a low level, the bulls continued to rise with MA5, and MA5 and MA10 have appeared golden crosses, and the bulls are rising along the five-day ** and 10**, **showing the divergence of bulls, indicating that the current bulls ** are running better. In the one-hour structure, there is a divergence in the continuous upward movement, and there is a certain need for adjustment, so it may be the phenomenon of a five-day retracement of the daily chart.
*ETF – SPDR Gold Trust Holdings Report.
The above views and suggestions are for reference only. 】