1. Chen Guo of China Securities Construction Investment: In 2024, A-shares may present a small bull market and will enter a bear-bull conversion period in the short term.
Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of China Securities Construction Investment**, predicts that A-shares are expected to show a small bull market in 2024 and will enter a bear-bull transition period in the short term. "The current implied risk premium of A-shares exceeds the 90% percentile in the past eight years, and China** is a low-level asset in both RMB asset allocation and global major equity market allocation. Chen Guo believes that A-shares have the conditions for bear-bull conversion. For the strategic idea of the bear-bull transition period, Chen Guo suggested that it is necessary to gradually shift from defense to offense, and call option thinking can be considered in the allocation. Focus on three clues: first, the direction of the reversal of the industrial cycle + dilemma, such as intelligent driving, AI, data, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery; Second, there are valuation repair opportunities under the pro-cyclical pessimistic consensus expectation, such as real estate, non-ferrous metals, consumer building materials, and insurance sectors; The third is to start from the call option thinking and choose the offensive attribute in the high dividend.
What I want to say is, can you stop shouting a bull market, it's easy to attract scolding, every year someone shouts a bull market in A shares, in fact, it falls every year, don't want it, there will be no bull market in A shares, remember to remember!
Second, foreign capital has run away again! Domestic capital smashed A-shares again!
On Tuesday, there was a net outflow of 75 percent from foreign capital (northbound funds).4.2 billion, the main capital is the outflow of domestic capital of 40.7 billion, it has been 21 consecutive days of outflow, domestic capital is too ruthless, and smashed so many A shares, I don't want A shares at all, this is, otherwise I won't play like this, the current ** is very simple, domestic capital is not to say, every day is running, as long as foreign capital continues to flow out, A shares will not stop falling, foreign capital is the vane, foreign capital sold Wuliangye, Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai were net sold 68.6 billion yuan, 34.8 billion yuan, 20.6 billion yuan; Bought Kunlun Wanwei contrarian net **38.2 billion yuan, that is to say, foreign capital bought the game sector and sold the liquor and new energy vehicle sector.
3. On Tuesday, the northbound flight was nearly 8 billion, A-shares fell by 50 points, and the 3,000-point defense battle was temporarily announced! Tuesday's ** really cast a layer of gray on everyone's hearts. Once 3000 points are announced, there will inevitably be panic, and this is also the purpose of the main force, in order to undertake this part of the escape chips, and after the 3000 points fall below, Guo Jia's team, big funds and big institutions are all **, all in the layout, plus 3000 points to 2923 This area is the cost area of the previous main force, and this position is not allowed to fall below the main force, so the bottom will appear soon, and ** will be pushed down again to turn around.
Fourth, the national team's move may be related to some potential policy changes. These times, the released economic data is not optimistic, the data of the real economy has been less than expected for two consecutive months, and the PMI index has fallen below 50 again, entering the contraction range. Real estate investment as a percentage of GDP has also fallen below 6%, which is lower than in Japan after the housing bubble burst.
These data show that China's economic growth is facing greater downward pressure, and some stimulus policies are needed to stabilize the economy. However, the current stimulus seems to have entered a window period, with no new policies introduced and no clear policy expectations. This leads to uncertainty in the market, a lack of investor confidence, and increased volatility in the market. The national team's move may be to give the market a signal that the attitude of the top management towards the market is stable, and it will not cause major turmoil in the market, and it will also pave the way for the introduction of policies in the later stage.
Fifth, because Moody's suddenly downgraded our sovereign rating and dealt a ruthless blow to us, foreign capital frantically fled 7.5 billion yuan, Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, CATL and other heavyweight stocks have all reached new lows in the near future, and the bears have completely broken through the 3,000-point mark of the bulls' defense line, resulting in the formation of a double bottoming situation. **Since 2924 points, the highest point is 3090 points, and it has retraced 118 points or 71%, which is basically in place, and there is not much room for follow-up, and eventually** will regain the 3000-point mark after building a double bottom.
Looking forward to today, excluding the impact of sudden major news, the main operating range is 2970-3000 points, the limit operating range is 2960-3010 points, and the maximum amplitude is 50 points. Considering that Hong Kong stocks and A50 futures indices have stabilized and rebounded slightly after A-shares**, it is expected that when they open slightly higher, they will then fall moderately to scare off small scatters, and then gradually stabilize the trend.