More than ten years ago, Uncle Benshan and his apprentices performed a skit on the stage of the Spring Festival Gala called "Donation".
A simple farmer uncle met a single mother whose children couldn't afford to go to school, and originally only wanted to donate 3,000, but with a trembling hand, he pressed more zero, and 30,000 in the card were donated.
However, after all, it is "a land contract, two partnerships, except for the wife, regardless of you and me"-
There is still 15,000 saved by the in-laws in the card, but the single-son in-laws are waiting for the money tomorrow....
The question is: how can I get the money back from the donation?
Facing the scene, Uncle Benshan issued a soul torture question: Want money and face?
The single's in-laws said bluntly: I want a wife!
Time has passed, I never expected that such a thing as "asking for the money given out" could come out in a realistic version, and it was also on the hot search.
The difference is that the protagonist has changed from a simple peasant uncle to a bank that is not bad for money.
It's a bit unbelievable...
On the evening of December 28, China Merchants Bank issued an announcement on the resolution of the board of supervisors, which was deliberated and approved"Proposal on the Recourse and Clawback of Performance Remuneration of China Merchants Bank in 2022".
Don't look at the words in the announcement to stab the thief high-end, to put it simply, the bank wants to defend the rights of its employees and ask for salaries!
This time, a total of 2,876 employees were reclaimed and clawed by the implementation of performance-based compensation, accounting for 2 percent of the total number of employees55%；
A total of 58.24 million yuan was recovered from performance compensation, and about 20,300 yuan was recovered per person.
As soon as the news came out, half of the financial circle and real estate circle exploded directly!
We can see a lot of things about employees asking for wages from employers, and this time the employer is asking for wages from employees in reverse
It's definitely a knife to the butt - it's an eye-opener!
Besides, more than 58 million is really not a small amount of money, enough to tear onions and throw coins more than 700 times in the live broadcast room;
Even if the 20,000 yuan spread to everyone's head is not old or young, how many people don't have a year-end bonus of 20,000, please raise your hand in the comment area....
Sure enough, China Merchants Bank to the staff"Reverse bargaining".As soon as the incident came out, the painting style in the comment area instantly changed to the following-
That's it, don't you suspect that China Merchants Bank is doing this "dead friends do not die poor", the announcement is clear:
In order to alleviate various operational and management risks, according to regulatory requirements and operational management needs, a relevant mechanism for deferred payment of remuneration and recourse and clawback of performance-based remuneration has been established.
To be honest, the reality is simply too cruel for the bank, so I'd better get a wave of blood back from my own people first!
Love to complain, love to leave and leave, anyway, in front of the situation, you are gone, and some people are willing to drum up in the bank.
Besides, for the bank, the matter of reverse salary negotiation is not the first time that a new daughter-in-law has entered the cave room.
This year, Bohai Bank reclaimed and deducted 17.6 million yuan in the performance pay of 370 people in 2022, and the average person was recovered by 4760,000 yuan, the total number is not as high as that of China Merchants Bank, but it is more painful per capita than that of China Merchants Bank;
The total amount of performance recourse rebates of Jiujiang Bank in 2022 is 1.63 million yuan, although the total number is not much, but the specific number of people involved is not disclosed, which is difficult to evaluate
During the merger and reorganization of five urban commercial banks in Shanxi, 61 senior executives and key positions were reclaimed and deducted 33.59 million yuan in performance compensation, which is more than 550,000 yuan per capita
Although it is a bit counter-intuitive, the reverse salary of the bank is definitely in accordance with the law and regulations
As early as 2010, the former China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) issued the Guidelines for the Supervision of Prudent Remuneration of Commercial Banks, which clarified that commercial banks should formulate provisions on deferred recourse and clawback of performance-based remuneration
In February 2021, the General Office of the former China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued the Guiding Opinions on Establishing and Improving the Recourse Clawback Mechanism for Performance-based Remuneration of Banking and Insurance Institutions.
The "Guiding Opinions" specify that under eight circumstances, the performance-based remuneration and other incentive remuneration of senior managers and key positions of banking and insurance institutions shall be recovered.
For example, the occurrence of financial statement restatement, the falsification of performance appraisal results, the serious failure to meet the standards of important regulatory indicators, the occurrence of major risk events, etc. are all listed here.
As of late March 2023, more than 95% of institutions have developed and implemented performance-based pay deferred payment and recourse clawback systems.
The bricks of the bank workers are moved: sincere fear, trembling...
Seeing that the landlord's family has no surplus food, the only thought of the bank now is that everyone can happily pay back the extra salary.
But eighty percent of the bank employees who are asked for wages don't think so: I'm still happy....I promise not to cry, okay?
So, what kind of moth is the bank making of its own employees?
On the surface, it is the banking industry that is facing pressure and challenges in its own operating efficiency.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the total domestic and foreign currency assets of China's banking financial institutions totaled 4098 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 95%；
The balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks was 32 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.4 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter, and the non-performing loan ratio was 161%。
During the same period, commercial banks achieved a cumulative net profit of 19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%；
In the first three quarters of last year, the net interest margin of China's banking industry was 207%, net interest margin margin 219%, down 23 basis points and 22 basis points year-on-year, respectively.
The higher the data of the above two indicators, the better the profitability of the banking industry.
By November, new loans were 109 trillion yuan, a seasonal increase of 351.6 billion yuan month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 136.8 billion yuan;
The growth rate of loan balance at the end of the month decreased by 01 percentage point to 108%, which was lower than market expectations.
As of early January 2024,We have set some of the lowest interest rates and spreads since our founding.
What will happen to the overall profitability of the banking sector in the short to medium term?It seems to have been revealed.
Judging from the situation of China Merchants Bank, it is indeed not optimistic
On the one hand, the balance of credit card non-performing loans of China Merchants Bank has reached 156 by the end of 2022500 million:
This represents a year-on-year increase of 190.4 billion, with a defective rate of 177%, which is at an all-time high.
On the other hand, the capital market in 2023 will also not give China Merchants Bank face-
On the last trading day of last year, the share price of China Merchants Bank fell by 48% at its peak, properly halved
So far, the total market value of China Merchants Bank is 701.6 billion, and it has already fallen out of the "trillion club".
There may be Lao Tie who wants to ask: Even if the salary is recovered, it is only more than 50 million, and the transaction scale of China Merchants ** is as much as 1.8 billion in one day, isn't it a drop in the bucket?
You really can't count it like that
Salary recovery is based on the performance indicators of the bankers, especially the bad debts.
Legally and in accordance with the rules and regulations to recover the corresponding salary, not only can the bank losses be recovered as much as possible;
It can also enable bank employees to be more cautious and meticulous in approving loans in the future, and further restrain the growth of non-performing loans.
At a deeper level, the contraction of credit based on the real estate sector is likely to be the real problem.
Judging from the financing situation of 80 typical real estate companies——
In 2021, the total amount of financing will be 1,260.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24%, which is the first negative growth in this value
The total amount of financing in 2022 will be 826.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, and the annual value will only be 2 3 in 2021
By 2023, the total amount of financing will be 569.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 28%, and the decline has slowed down, but the overall situation is still uncertain.
As of the end of the third quarter of 2023, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 5319 trillion, down 02%；
Its growth rate decreased by 1 from the end of the previous year7 percentage points, lower than the average growth rate of various loans by 111 percentage point.
During the same period, the balance of personal housing loans was 3842 trillion, down 1 percent year-on-year2%, the growth rate was 2 lower than the end of the previous year4 percentage points.
To put it bluntly: loan projects involving the real estate industry have become a drag on the profitability of the entire bank.
In terms of the proportion of credit, credit financing involving real estate seems to account for only 20-35% of the overall financing scale of the banking industry, which does not seem to be as high as imagined.
But, but, but-
Only 7 percent of the wealth of our residents is concentrated in real estate, and about 1 4 percent of employment is related to it
In addition, it has also indirectly driven the financing scale and consumption scale of hundreds of core industries.
In this cycle, it is only a matter of time before the chain of credit contraction is transmitted to other areas.
This can only be avoided if the property market is re-established.
Because real estate is a pillar industry stamped by the government, the credit scale and transmission effect based on the real estate industry are irreplaceable.
So, will the real estate industry continue to be a drag in 2024?
Truth be told, it is indeed difficult to fully restore to the level before the mask, but it will definitely be significantly better than the past two years
The decline in new home sales will narrow in 2024, and demand will be restored to a certain extent.
The vast majority of the country's major first- and second-tier cities are in a net inflow of population, which is determined by employment fundamentals
Therefore, it can be regarded as a constant amount of real estate in the corresponding city**.
In the current situation, the improvement demand will still show resilience, and the rigid demand will be steadily restored over time.
This means that credit based on the upstream and downstream of the real estate industry will also be repatriated accordingly.
Of course, some of this is due to the low base effect in 2023, but overall, the situation is likely to be a high probability event compared to the past two years for two reasons:
First of all, from January to November 2023, the total amount of land acquired by real estate enterprises nationwide will be 1,085.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 66%。
This means that the operating rate and scale in 2024 will also be correspondingly narrowed.
** End contraction, superimposed on the two-year bottoming period, objectively helps the new housing market and the second-hand housing market to accelerate the de-escalation.
In addition, many first- and second-tier core cities have opened the "double limit", and the ceiling of housing prices and land prices is no longer restricted
This means that the second market is likely to accelerate the formation of an interactive effect, thereby enhancing the confidence of the market.
In this way, it undoubtedly provides a material basis for the narrowing of the bad debt ratio and the expansion of net profit in the banking industry.
In addition, as early as late July 2023, the high-level review and adoption of the "Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Transformation of Urban Villages in Super Mega Cities".
By 2024, the corresponding shed improvement process will also enter a critical period
More funding is on the horizon and more demand will be released.
In the context of the narrowing of new inventories, the demand side and the supply side are likely to usher in resonance.
This is an important basis for the bottoming out and accelerated recovery of the property market in 2024.
According to the agency's estimates, this round of urban village transformation may pull 07-1.The investment in fixed assets of 5 trillion yuan and the average annual increment will boost real estate investment by about 5-6 percentage points.
Overall, the real estate industry is likely to accelerate marginal improvement in 2024, and the actual perception of the real estate industry is likely to be better than in the past two years.
In addition, the current loan interest rate has fallen to a historical low, and the threshold for home ownership in major core cities has been lowered lower than in the previous year
It is absolutely unprecedentedly friendly for real rigid needs and improvement needs.
In this case,Once both the market bottom and the sentiment bottom come, the real estate market will be just around the corner.
Stable assets are the most reliable and long-term means to dilute debt pressure and bad debt pressure.