"Electric Eel Finance" article Li Wanjun.
There is a famous quote from Warren Buffett circulating in the capital market: "Be afraid when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful". However, it is not easy to face it calmly when you are immersed in the scene, and some listed companies in the current A** field are in the process of re-increasing their capital, and they must have a first-hand experience of the reaction to investment.
On December 22, the price of Xinbo shares was 3247 yuan, up 053%, which seems to have stopped the recent trend of bottoming out again. "Electric Eel Finance" paid attention to the fact that it has been half a year since the additional issuance of Xinbo shares in 2023, and the fundraising scale has been reduced twice, from 134.5 billion yuan to 8800 million yuan. Recently, the company's actual controller subscribed for the 2022 additional shares, which have been lifted, but the additional issue price (445 yuan) and the current stock price is sharply inverted, if the other 15 investors who subscribed at the same time still hold shares, it will be a blood loss.
Fortunately, the fundamentals of Xinbo shares are good, not only the performance maintains high growth, but also the main business is progressing smoothly, and the good news continues to be spread in terms of production capacity, shipments, and new customer cooperation.
In 2022, the additional issue price will be inverted by 267% of the actual controller's subscription of shares has just been lifted.
On December 15, 2023, Xinbo shares disclosed the "Suggestive Announcement on the Listing and Circulation of Some Restricted Shares in the Non-public Offering", and the shareholder who applied for the lifting of the share restriction was Tang Kaijian, the actual controller of the company, and the number of shares released from the restriction was 33707.86 million shares, accounting for 229%, and the listing and circulation date is December 18, 2023 (Monday).
Electric Eel Finance and Economics found that the previous additional issuance of Xinbo shares was quite successful, and the additional offering price was much higher than the low price, and the actual controller and 15 other investors participated in the subscription.
According to the issuance report, the issue price of the previous additional issuance of Xinbo shares is not lower than the average trading price of the company in the first 20 trading days before the first day of the pricing benchmark date, that is, not less than 3450 yuan shares, according to the investor's subscription ** and the "subscription invitation", the determination of the issuance ** is 4450 yuan shares, premium 2899%, compared to the average price of 43 in the first 20 trading days before the first day of the issuance period$12 share premium 320%。
The total amount of funds raised was 78 billion yuan, net proceeds after deducting expenses related to the issuance of 76.9 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that the previous additional issuance was implemented very quickly. On April 8, 2022, it was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission;On May 26, 2022, the raised funds arrived;On June 16, 2022, the additional ** was listed.
However, judging from the stock price trend, the shareholders who participated in the previous additional issuance will not be very happy.
According to the issuance plan, Tang Kaijian subscribed for shares with a lock-up period of 18 months, and the other 15 investors subscribed for shares with a lock-up period of 6 months. According to this calculation, the release period of other investors' shares is in December 2022, and the share price of Xinbo shares at that time is between 40 yuan and 50 yuan, and has been declining since then.
In 2023, the dividend plan of Xinbo shares is "10 shares and 2 yuan", and the ex-rights date is April 24, 2023, which has little impact on the holding costs of investors participating in the additional issuance.
Considering the cost of capital, the best scenario for investors who participated in the previous additional issuance is not to lose money, and if they hold shares until now, they will lose 267%, a loss of nearly 30%.
When the additional issuance is in progress in 2023: the fundraising scale will be reduced twice.
With the development of the main business and the situation of short supply, Xinbo shares will be issued again in 2023, and the appetite will be greater.
On January 5, 2023, Xinbo Co., Ltd. disclosed the "2023 Non-public Issuance of A Shares" Plan, planning to raise 134.5 billion yuan, the number of shares issued does not exceed 36 million shares, invested in projects with an annual output of 600,000 tons of recycled aluminum, digital construction projects, and replenishment of working capital.
With the implementation of the registration system, on February 21, Xinbo shares revised the issuance plan, and the scale of fundraising has not changed.
On June 26, Xinbo shares disclosed that the application for the issuance of ** to specific objects was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for registration, which is valid for 12 months.
For the first time, the fundraising scale was reduced by 50 million yuan.
On September 14, Xinbo disclosed the registration draft of the prospectus for the updated version of the 2023 semi-annual report, and the fundraising scale was increased from 134.5 billion yuan was lowered to 129.5 billion yuan, the main reduction is the scale of "supplementary liquidity", which has been reduced by 50 million yuan.
The second reduction in the size of fundraising 41.5 billion yuan.
On December 19, Xinbo shares disclosed that the company would adjust the company's plan for issuing A shares to specific objects in 2023 and reduce the amount of funds raised by 41.5 billion yuan, and the total amount of funds raised after the reduction does not exceed 8800 million yuan, combined with the proportion of the original raised funds in the total investment of the project, according to the specific funding arrangements and the actual investment of the project, the investment of the raised funds of each project will be reduced accordingly.
Good news is frequent, but the stock price "iron falls" opportunity or challenge?
After the disclosure of the additional issuance plan in 2023, the share price of Xinbo shares has risen for a short time, but the trend after that is all the way.
As of now, that is, as of December 22, the average price of Xinbo shares in the last 20 trading days is 3378 yuan, calculated at an 80% discount, if the additional issuance at this time, the low price of the issue price is 27024 yuan, according to the issuance size of 8800 million yuan, the number of shares issued is 3256360,000 shares.
Such an issue price and the number of shares issued must be something that the company's shareholders of record do not want. If calculated according to the issuance plan at the beginning of the year, the fundraising is 134.5 billion yuan, the issued shares do not exceed 36 million shares, the issue price is 3736 yuan, according to this calculation, the average price of the 20 trading days before the issuance benchmark date is 46$7.
With the changes in the market, the expectation of additional issuance is no longer the same.
However, the fundamentals of Xinbo shares are good. In the first three quarters of this year, Xinbo shares operating income, net profit and non-net profit increased year-on-year respectively. 48% and 7937%。
Xinbo shares also through announcements, interactive platforms and opportunities to communicate with investors.
According to the recent research express information, Xinbo shares are expected to increase shipments in the fourth quarter by 18-22%. On November 27, Xinbo shares said on the investor interactive platform that the company actively explores mainstream head customers in the field of new energy vehicles, and has obtained the development of some OEMs (direct customers) of designated projects or enterprises, and some projects have been supplied in batches.
The previous fundraising project is progressing smoothly. According to reports, the first phase of the 100,000-ton new energy auto parts project of Xinbo Co., Ltd. has been put into operation, and the second phase of the project is expected to be completed by the end of 2023, mainly including battery trays, threshold beams, bumpers, luggage racks and other products.
Electric Eel Finance will pay close attention to the progress of Xinbo's additional issuance in 2023 and the dynamics of its main business.
Electric Eel Express