In the first half of next year, Russia will usher in a new one*** However, so far, not only has the incumbent ** Putin not made it clear whether he will run, but also there are no other powerful candidates, and it seems that everyone does not want to take the risk of challenging Putin.
Against this background, Putin took the initiative to meet with Yavlinsky, the leader of the Yabolu party, a small opposition party, and mainly discussed the issue of a ceasefire on the Russian-Ukrainian border. The Yabolu Party has been a hardline anti-war stance, advocating that Russia should immediately and unconditionally withdraw its troops from Ukraine. Yavlinsky also announced that if he can get 10 million signatures from his supporters, he will participate in next year's **.
Putin met with Yavlinsky, the leader of the Yabolu party
However, it is almost impossible to achieve this goal. The Yabolu Party was ostracized by mainstream Russian public opinion because of its radical anti-war stance. A recent poll shows who will you support if Putin does not participate in next year's **?As a result, Yavlinsky, as the representative of the Yabolu party, was the least popular candidate, with 80 percent saying they would not vote for him, even lower than Navalny, the current imprisoned leader of Russia's anti-establishment party – a party that could be said to be the target of public criticism.
If Putin doesn't participate, who will you choose to be **?Blue) who must not be chosen?(red)].
It can be seen that if Putin does not run, then next year's Russia ** will be an election without suspense, and whoever is well-known may win. And the most popular candidate is Sergei Lavrov (52%), followed by Prime Minister Mishustin (46%), and the third is Belarusian Lukashenko (41%) — that's right, Lukashenko. Next are Chechen leader Kadyrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
**Long Lavrov is the most popular candidate].
So why did Putin meet with an influential opposition leader?There may be deep political considerations behind this.
First of all, through this meeting, Putin showed his confidence and calmness in the world. Although the meeting was not open or a formal debate, one can imagine the contrast between the two: in front of Putin, no candidate has a chance of winning, and Yavlinsky is even more vulnerable.
Yabolu party leader Yavlinsky].
As Kremlin spokesman and Putin's confidant Dmitry Peskov once said: "If Putin participates in next year's **, then no one will be able to compete with him." This is straightforward, but it is also true.
Secondly, through this meeting, Putin showed his tolerance and respect for the opposition. It should be noted that Yavlinsky, although in opposition, is not an "anti-establishment" like Navalny, and the Yabolu party describes itself as a "left-wing non-institutional opposition". That is, the Yabolu party does not oppose the existing political system in Russia, but only disagrees with the Kremlin on some issues, which also makes a meeting between Putin and Yavlinsky possible.
On Ukraine, while the Yabolu Party's views are unlikely to change Russia's policy, Putin has listened to them, reflecting the Kremlin's openness and pluralism.
To sum up, the reason why Putin took the time to meet with such an underappreciated opposition figure is, on the one hand, to show his confidence and calmness in the opposition, and on the other hand, to show his tolerance and respect for the opposition, and to encourage more potential candidates to participate in the opposition, rather than cowering. While the outcome of next year's ** is likely to be Putin's victory, other candidates can also take the opportunity to increase their visibility and influence and prepare for the future.
Putin is likely to participate and win next year's **].
From a broader perspective, Putin is now taking time out to meet with the opposition and prepare for **, which also reflects the current abatement of external pressure on Russia. The Ukrainian offensive, although still ongoing, is slow and ineffective, while Russia has launched a massive counterattack in the direction of Ajieyivka, putting enormous pressure on Ukraine.
At the same time, the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has also largely distracted the attention of the United States, although the United States claims to be able to "support both Israel and Ukraine", but everyone knows that if there is really a choice between the two, Biden will definitely give priority to Israel, let alone the Republican Party.
Winter is approaching, and all signs indicate that Russia is currently in a stage where the domestic situation is relatively stable and external pressure is relatively small. And for Putin, this also provides a valuable window of time for him to deal with ** affairs and prepare for next year**.