According to a number of ** reports, in the Black Sea port, Ukraine successfully sank the Russian "Toad"-class landing ship "Novocherkassk". The attack was carried out by Su-24 fighter-bombers carrying the "Storm Shadow" and "Scarp" missiles supplied by Britain and France. The strike, similar to the previous attack on the Sevastopol shipyard, was aimed at large targets moored inside the port. Due to the relative age and fragile structure of the ship, the air defense cannot play a role, and once this attack method hits, the probability of the ship sinking is extremely high. The Russian side admits the damage, but has not yet disclosed the exact damage, which, in our judgment, may be comparable to the previously sunken Alligator-class landing ship in Novorossiysk.
In the face of the "Storm Shadow" missiles and "Scarp" missiles provided by Britain and France, Russia's current defense and early warning capabilities are clearly seriously insufficient. Ultra-low-altitude flights make it difficult to dodge missiles and warplanes in air defense blind spots, so Russia faces challenges in this regard. It is worth noting that the timing of this crackdown is very special. Western countries, especially the United States, have almost cut off aid to Ukraine. And how will Ukraine get Western aid?Ground operations have failed repeatedly, and the United States believes that it is difficult to turn the tide of the war through **, and the situation is very chaotic. Russia, on the other hand, took the initiative to launch a full-front attack. There is a widespread belief in Western countries that the war is irreversible and that future aid is almost pointless.
In the current situation, Ukraine is still able to launch a certain degree of military operations in the Black Sea region with only the limited equipment of Su-24 aircraft and "Storm Shadow" and "Scarp" missiles, and even affect large targets, which may remind Western countries that Ukraine still has a certain combat capability, and then prompt it to provide more support. However, the $300 million in aid to Ukraine approved by the US Congress is clearly far from enough. Aid for high-end ** equipment has also been basically interrupted, and the EU's aid of 50 to 60 billion euros to Ukraine has also reached an impasse. In this case, what strategy should Ukraine adopt to raise funds?How can Western countries be induced to fulfil their commitments?Shouting out is not the most effective way to do it, as not many people will listen.
Despite Zelensky's lengthy talks with Biden, only $300 million in aid was promised in the end. And the 50 billion euros in aid from EU countries to Ukraine is also difficult to achieve because of major obstacles. If Ukraine wants to give hope to Western countries and prove to the United States that it still has combat capability, it can consider striking large targets in ports through missile attacks, and even achieve certain results. In this way, Western countries may believe that there is still a glimmer of hope for Ukraine and maintain some initiative in the conflict with Russia. However, such contingencies cannot become the norm, naval combat operations have high technical requirements, although strong military capabilities are not required, but as long as the blind spots of the other side and the weakness of air defense ** can be skillfully exploited, it is possible to achieve results.
It is worth noting that the Scarp missiles are supplied by the West, not made by Ukraine. Therefore, this type of blow will only work at certain times and will have a certain shock effect. However, it still seems very difficult to reverse the situation. The overall situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict cannot be changed by relying on one or two missiles, but it is possible to succeed by relying on overall rather than local advantages. Although the raid was unexpected, its impact was relatively limited in terms of Russia's overall strategic posture in Ukraine. This operation showed more of Ukraine's fighting spirit and capabilities, sending a positive signal to Western countries.
If Western countries continue to provide similar equipment and achieve results, it will force Biden and the European Union to accelerate the translation of commitments into practical assistance to ensure that Ukraine can receive sufficient funds and ammunition to support sustained combat operations in the future, and make a greater contribution to weakening Russia's influence in the United States and the West.