China's economic recovery performance was mixed, with industrial production up 6 percent year-on-year in November6%, the strongest increase since September last year;The real estate sector continued to be weak, and the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected.
China's National Bureau of Statistics released data on November national economic performance data released on Friday (December 15), showing that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6 percent year-on-year in November6%, 2 percentage points faster than the previous month;Month-on-month growth of 087%。The high growth rate was mainly due to the low base in the same period during the epidemic last year, but it was also significantly higher than 57% of the market** average.
The total value of imports and exports of goods in November increased by 12%, 03 percentage points;Among them, exports increased by 17%, ending a six-month streak of declines.
However, China's overall economic recovery has been slow and the growth rate has been uneven in various sectors, with the continued contraction of real estate being the most prominent.
From January to November, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) increased by 29%, unchanged from the first 10 months of the year. Infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment increased by 5 percent year-on-year, respectively8% and 63%, but real estate development investment fell 94%；The area of commercial housing sales decreased by 8%, and the sales of commercial housing decreased by 52%, and the area of new housing starts fell by 212%。
In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 10% year-on-year1%, 2 percent faster than the previous month5 percentage points, but down 006%, a year-on-year increase of 125%**.
China's employment situation has not improved, with the national surveyed urban unemployment rate at 5% in November, remaining at 5% for three consecutive months.
This week's CPC's economic work conference has pointed out that factors such as insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and still many hidden risks are China's current major economic difficulties and challenges.
Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, chief economist and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, said at a press conference on Friday that the national economy continued to rebound in November as various macroeconomic policies took effect. "However, it should also be noted that there are still many external instability and uncertainties, domestic demand is still insufficient, and the foundation for economic recovery still needs to be consolidated. ”
Liu Aihua said that China's consumption will gradually shift from post-epidemic recovery to continuous expansion, and the problem of insufficient effective demand in the current economic operation is expected to be gradually alleviated, and the low-level operation will also be improved, and there will be no deflation.
Fu Fangjian, an associate professor at the Lee Kong Chian Business School of Singapore Management University, judged in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao that although the year-on-year data of industrial added value is not very representative, it still increased by two percentage points compared with the growth rate in October, "which shows that the recovery momentum of industry is very good."
Fu Fangjian said that the rebound in industrial activities is more obvious, fixed asset investment is generally flat in the real estate sector continues to decline, and the consumption sector also maintains a rebound trendThese signs reflect the initial effects of China's official incentives since the middle of the year and the frequent signals to focus on the economy. As long as the current policy direction does not change, the positive trend is expected to continue into next year.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, pointed out that China's national real estate development investment index has seen a widening decline, indicating that financial pressure and business confidence and other problems still plague this indicator, and the current recovery foundation is not solid.