【Author's Profile】Songuo comes from a private equity champion team, with a cumulative scale of 10 figures. With 13 years of investment experience, he is good at ** and restructuring, and is now the manager of Sunshine Private Equity.
This weekend, everyone seems to be Xi to being calm, talking about ** opportunities and risks, there are, but not much!Different from the policy shouting hard in the first month, now the policy is not talking, is it going to be abandoned?
Personally, I don't think so, but it is indeed a vacuum period at present, and we all know that to enhance the activity of the capital market, the small-scale meeting at the end of July this year should be the highest level of shouting. The next meeting of the same level should be held in late January, so that the current time period is indeed very embarrassing, and there are indeed many fewer policy shouts.
However, last Friday, the news of the central enterprises began to ferment, this time it is only to do not say, let's wait and see how the effect is
Let's first take you to sort out the news of the weekend:
1. Guoxin Investment ** Central Enterprise ETF and will continue to do so
The news is good for the whole**, everyone is talking about this Guoxin investment, and the upward penetration is 100% controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision Commission, I am no stranger to this company, in the second quarter of 2023, the company bought a listed company called Harbin Huatong, as shown in the figure below, although I didn't buy much, but I just came in in the third quarter, and I just researched and confirmed before coming in, this state-owned listed company in the new capital and related private placement of the new pattern of the new pattern of the country** At that time, the total scale should be within 100 billion, and I don't know if there has been a capital increase recently.
It should be noted that unlike Xinhua and Chinese Life to establish a 50 billion private placement **, Guoxin's private placement and Guoxin Capital, did not announce the total amount of ** and the total amount of the plan **, it seems that it should not be the main body of leveling **, so it also makes sense, this time it should be a wave of central enterprises and state-owned capital **, in addition to Huijin, securities companies, insurance companies, bank wealth management subsidiaries, this time and the state-owned capital company of central enterprises, especially the latter, it is difficult to imagine that central enterprises actually began to buy ** , this is obviously taking the lead in demonstrating, and the signal released is self-evident.
However, it should be pointed out that the bottom of the market and the bottom of the policy cannot be equated, the most obvious is the real estate market, the policy control has lasted for more than ten years, but it has really begun to bear fruit, and housing prices have begun to weaken from 2022, which shows how strong the market power is.
2. At the weekend lithium battery horror moment, the United States IRA passed on the new bearish
On December 1, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued guidance on the interpretation of "Sensitive Foreign Entities (FEOCs)", which will be officially released on December 4. The purpose of this guidance is to implement the IRA requirements, starting in 2024, EVs eligible for the tax credit must not contain any battery components manufactured or assembled by the FEOC, and from 2025 onwards, EVs eligible for the tax credit must not contain any critical minerals extracted, processed or ** by the FEOC.
An entity is considered a FEOC if it is owned, controlled by, or governed by China, Russia, North Korea, or Iran.
The news is bearish for battery stocks and lithium battery industry chain, this time the FEOC is obviously strict, not only the 25% share ceiling, considering the domestic battery overcapacity, lithium batteries will become the second photovoltaicThe secondary market will "run" first, and then say, pity the big institutions here, they can't run now, they can only use time for space.
3. There will be many blockbuster data and events next week, on Wednesday and Friday, the United States will announce the number of employment in November, and on Saturday we will release the CPI for November, and may release M2 data
The news is neutral, just like last week's PMI data, the market was cautious before the announcement, and the market disappeared after the announcement, but fortunately, they are concentrated in the second half of the week, so theoretically, the atmosphere of the first half of the week is better.
On the whole, the weekend track leading lithium battery is bearish, because the CATL era is the benchmark of track popularity, it is expected that the pressure on the track stocks and the gem is greater, and the short term should not be easy to ** lithium battery, when the involution and overcapacity come, the Davis double kill of the stock price is very terrible, maybe the new shareholders do not understand, but when you look at the stock price of the former photovoltaic brother (as shown in the figure below), you know what it means to be afraid.
About ** and hot spots
* Every day to fight the defense war, as shown in the figure below, the week ** just do the kneading up and down, according to the theory of technical analysis, the first half of next week is bound to rise **, the weekend state-owned capital ** news fermentation, the market has the conditions for sustained, the first target exceeded last week's high of 3089 points.
However, it should be pointed out that this kind of ** will not go up will quickly smash the market, if the first half of the week can not change as scheduled, ** is likely to quickly break 3000 points, considering the urine of the market, it is expected that next week will be higher and lower mainly, so that next week we can still play a defensive war.
In terms of hot spots, last week, the AI application side began to rise, mainly because PIKA is out of the circle, one of the founders is the daughter of Xinyada time and space people, this netizen jokingly called the concept of daughter, in fact, strictly speaking, this technology is called AIGC, which is an original ** automatically generated by AI**, of course, PIKA is more bullish, **The content is richer and fuller, There are actually many companies like A-shares, of course, including giants, etc., are engaged in it, but who does it better and better
Therefore, the logic of the current market is on the AI application side, the applications that can be seen, and the applications that can generate profits, are expected to revolve around this main line next week.