If you ask on a search engine: Does 20 days work?
You will see the following headings on the front page:
20th**Advantage**: Trend**, make money steadily.
20 days ** tactics, a line to know the sale, the simpler the more effective the method.
The 20-day**, also known as the universal line, reflects the trend of the medium-term trend.
And, and so on:
The meaning of the 20-day** is that the cycle is neither short nor long, so it can more truly reflect the closest trend of the stock price. It can not only avoid the shortcomings of too frequent transactions, too many mistakes, and too high transaction costs according to 10 days, but also make up for the shortcomings of long-term ...... that lags too late
What is it really like?We test these claims with the intersection of the price (equivalent to 1 day) and the 20 day as a timing signal.
Figure: Kweichow Moutai MA (1,20) trading system.
The figure above shows the signals of all MA (1,20) of Kweichow Moutai from 2016 1 4 to 2019 9 27. During the period, Kweichow Moutai rose by 4747%, but if you use the 20-day strategy to operate Kweichow Moutai, there will only be 21487% of the gains.
In a similar situation, Gree Electric had a 198 during this period95%, but after cutting ** with MA (1,20), you can only get 9559% gain.
Previously, we popularized a statistical result, which is a timing operation for those historically super strong stocks, using the double ** golden cross and death cross of EMA5 and EMA50 to build signals.
For example, Gujing Gongjiu on the list of gainers, ** and hold (buy&hold) can achieve 214 times the return (2006.).1~2023.3), only 86 times the income after the double ** timing;Changchun High-tech has recorded a 103-fold return in the past 17 years, but the profitability has shrunk by 2 3 after using double **.
The conclusion is clear:For the big stocks in history, the result of simply holding it will be better, ** choosing the time will hurt the returns!
However, if the weakest ** is picked during the same period (2016 1 4 to 2019 9 27), and we can only trade these instruments:
Tianyu Digital Technology (formerly known as Tianshen Entertainment) fell -90 during that time43%, while the yield of operating with the 20-day strategy is -5108%；Eagle Farming (now delisted) ** change is -9653%, the gain from the 20-day ** operation is -5270%。
Visible,For the long-term **, the use of ** timing can greatly reduce the loss, so that the loss ratio is much lower than the ** own decline.
According to our statistics, in the past 17 years, about 30% of A-shares have been broken, and 73 have used double timing on those that have finally trendedThere is a 76% probability that they will outperform these own gains.
To put it simply, whether you can make a big profit depends on the market performance of the target itself, and the system cannot directly create income, but it is a loss of income. However, the defensive characteristics of ** are outstanding, and you can effectively reduce losses when you choose weak stocks.
According to the test, we add two more features of the system:
1) As far as the single and ** signals are concerned, the profit and loss ratio and win rate of the 20-day ** are not very good, and the situation on the 60th will be much better. Because the win rate of ** strategy is between 30% and 40%, but the profit and loss ratio of medium and long ** signals is much larger than that of short **.
2) On the software, you may see SMA, EMA, WMA, DEMA, TEMA, etc., which are essentially smoothing the data. When we use different types of algorithms to generate crossover signals (parameters of 5 days and 40 days, respectively), there is no significant difference in the Shanghai Composite Index.
The "Decisive Chapter" of the ancient Chinese soldier Guiguzi has a cloud: the past of the degree, the experience of the future, the participation of the plain, but the decision. The same is true for the process of trading decisions, the first thing to do is to live with the past.