With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement that "interest rate cuts have entered the horizon", the Fed's interest rate hike cycle has basically come to an end, and interest rate cuts no longer seem far away. 
This is undoubtedly good news for the global economy, after all, in the past year and a half, the world has been tossed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Now that Powell has finally relented and the tightening cycle is coming to an end, this is undoubtedly a relief for the world. As far as China itself is concerned, the policy window for stimulating the economy has gradually opened, and we no longer have to be constrained by the external environment as before. Therefore, after this first-class economic work conference, a series of policies will be introduced to boost the stabilization and rebound of the economy. However, among all the policies, what everyone wants to see the most is undoubtedly an across-the-board interest rate cut. After all, this is the most direct, comprehensive, and effective measure. Before the Fed raised interest rates frantically, the interest rate gap between China and the United States widened, and the RMB exchange rate depreciated and the outflow of funds arbitraged, we couldn't cut interest rates even if we wanted to. Now that the Fed can't play anymore, since that's the case, then we have room to cut interest rates. 
However, in the past December, the central bank did not cut interest rates across the board, but only increased MLF and lowered deposit rates. So, will interest rates really be cut next?Yun Shijun's judgment is that there may be a little bit of RRR cuts, and there may be some adjustments to LPR, but before the Fed really starts to cut interest rates, I am afraid that we are unlikely to cut interest rates across the board. Even in the early days when the Fed began to cut interest rates, China may not have followed suit. In this way, some people must disagree - after all, the previous comprehensive interest rate cut was nothing more than fear of affecting the exchange rate and triggering capital flight. Now that the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts have increased significantly, the RMB exchange rate has also rebounded by 2,000 basis points, and there is still upward pressure next. And that makes sense. And judging from the current situation in China, if the economy wants to recover, interest rate cuts are indeed the best way. So why do I still think a full-fledged rate cut is unlikely?It is mainly from the dual perspectives of the global economic cycle and the financial war between China and the United States: first: the Fed's interest rate cut has not been finally confirmed. Indeed, Powell has relented on the issue of interest rate cuts. But just half a month before this statement, he had been sticking to hawkish rhetoric, saying that high interest rates would be maintained for a long time, and even did not rule out continuing to raise interest rates. And some of the U.S. economic data at the time, such as the 19 percent increase in non-farm payrolls in November90,000 people, exceeding expectations;Unemployment rate 37%, which was lower than expected, such as in the third quarter, also provided support for Powell's strong statement. 
At the beginning of the month, the eagle was still released, and the pigeon began to turn in the middle of the month, and it was only half a month, and there was no major incident during this period, and Powell's attitude came to a 180-degree turn, which is actually very confusing. Why did Powell make this shift?There are many opinions in the market on this point, and some speculate that the real situation of the US economy may already be very serious, and if it continues like this, there will soon be a big problem - so Powell will not be able to hold on even if he wants to. There are also conspiracy theories that the Fed may want to play a look back and fool the world first-especially China, thinking that the tightening cycle is over, and then quickly cut interest rates to save the market - after all, everyone has had a hard time this year, and after creating a fait accompli, then look back and dig out, and blow us up - after all, whether the US economy has a big problem, whether it really can't hold on and is about to explode, this is just speculation, the most real underlying data, now only the core ruling group of the United States knows. If the Americans really take advantage of this and play a drag-knife trick, fooling us into lowering the interest rate first, playing the cards, and then it will not move, or even raise interest rates again, then everyone will really be blind. These speculations are all possible. In addition to speculation, there are two other worries that cannot be ruled out: one is that inflation has rebounded, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates a second time - that is, the Fed really can't hold on and wants to cut interest rates. But the problem is that Americans want it, not everyone else. For example, Russia, what it wants most now is to pull up inflation in the United States again, force the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates at a high level, and finally detonate a big firework with various problems, and completely pull the dollar off the altar - OPEC+'s efforts to pull oil prices, Russia's increasing strength on the battlefield of Russia and Ukraine, the continuation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the new outbreak of Yemen's Houthi armed blocking of shipping, behind these events, it seems that they have nothing to do with Russia's financial offensive against the United States. There's no way around it. After all, the United States is not what it used to be, and many fields are not something it can live in if it wants to. Although the Americans regard China as their number one competitor, after all, China still wants to play globalization and do business with the whole world, so although it also fights with the United States, and also wants to weaken the influence of the United States and weaken the dollar, it really doesn't want to play too much, and it doesn't want to pull the United States down so quickly - after all, the global economic system of the United States is being abolished too quickly, China can't catch it at once, and after the world is in chaos, China's business in the world is not easy to do. But Russia is different. Anyway, it has been forced by the United States to Liangshan, and now the economy is also fully beautified, so it doesn't care whether the United States collapses or not - it is better to collapse, and it is more suitable for it to take advantage of the fire. Now that Russia is still working in many directions, it is not yet known whether the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise interest rates twice due to various unexpected inflation spikes and other issues. It is really forced to raise interest rates for the second time - even if it is forced, the United States itself will be on a dead end, but we will not be able to escape the fish in the pond in the short term. Therefore, at a time when the situation is still unclear, it is still not safe to cut interest rates rashly. Another concern is the imminent economic crisis – the culmination of a major change unseen in a century. 
In recent years, the United States has completely relied on printing money and releasing water to maintain its economy, creating huge bubbles and huge debts. Although the United States has been shouting for a soft landing, judging from the current situation, it may be very difficult for the United States to make a soft landing due to the unfavorable harvest. Even if interest rate cuts can stabilize the economy for a while, according to historical experience, crashes have always erupted after the start of interest rate cuts - given that the hole in the United States is so big this time, let alone a hard landing, even if it is a soft landing, a wave of economic crisis is inevitable - and if it is a hard landing, it is the Great Depression. This poses a huge constraint on our current interest rate cuts. After all, there are so many cards in the policy reserve, if we release the king and the bomb now, and wait until the economic crisis or even the Great Depression breaks out in full swing, we will not have enough bullets in our hands - it will become the Americans' own sin, and we will have to be buried with it. And if we can temporarily resist the impulse now, keep as much as possible the trump card of interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, rely on economic restructuring and industrial upgrading, as well as limited fiscal means to stimulate, we will complete the task of stabilizing and rebounding this wave of economy, so that we will not only consolidate the economic chassis, but also leave enough to deal with the very likely to come to the end- At the same time, it is also the biggest impact bullet, so as to ensure that our economic recovery can be effectively sustained, and even after the explosion of the United States, stand up to lead the global economic recovery, and in the process expand the economic sphere of influence to the greatest extent, and build a strong Chinese ecosystem. This is analyzed from a macro perspective. From the strategic perspective of the Sino-US financial war, if China cuts interest rates now, although it is conducive to the current economic stability and consolidating our chassis and foundation, it may also help the United States - or even the United States will benefit more. 
Why do you say that?Given the influence of China's economy and the high correlation between the Chinese and US economies, the United States can actually benefit from China's interest rate cuts and strong economic stimulus, and the benefits are not small. This means that China's interest rate cut now is actually helping the United States alleviate some of its economic troubles. Of course, many people may think that the economies of China and the United States are highly interconnected anyway, and the two sides usually rub against each other. So let's solve our own troubles by ourselves. This is not the case. As everyone knows, the essence of this Sino-US financial war is that the two sides are holding each other to see who can't hold on first. If we cut interest rates now this time, it will consume our own bullets – and the core bullets. This kind of attrition not only means that we have fewer cards available later, but also sends a message to the United States that China will not be able to hold back first. That's a hassle. Originally, the sudden turn of Powell's remarks - if it is not a conspiracy theory, it is very likely that the United States feels that it will not be able to hold back first, so it will stop losses in advance. But as long as the United States thinks that China can't hold it back, especially if it can't hold it before itself, then the attitude of the Americans will immediately change - as long as it can defeat China in one fell swoop, this ** is really too big!In this way, it is possible that the interest rate that was supposed to be cut may not be lowered - everyone wait, bear with it, anyway, our family has a big business, even if we sweep the bottom of the warehouse and find some residual grain, we can always hold on for a while - not to mention that China's strong economic stimulus will also bring back some blood to the United States, so that it has the capital to live on for a while. If this kind of result really happens, the Fed should cut interest rates, but because we have to move and change to no interest rate cuts, it will not only offset the effect of our economic stimulation and waste the few bargaining chips in our hands to cut interest rates, but also have a serious adverse impact on the outcome of the Sino-US financial war. Of course, if it is really forced to the edge of the cliff and the economy collapses without making a big move, then even if it is poisonous wine, it can only be drunk - just like this time Powell's attitude turned, if it is not a conspiracy theory, but it is true that the United States will not be able to hold on without cutting interest rates in advance, then this is the typical lesser of two evils. 
But the problem is that China's economy is not up to this. Although this year is difficult, it still seems to be at the bottom, but from the power generation and other data, after a year of structural adjustment and upgrading, the economy has stabilized and rebounded, but it has not yet been transmitted to the level that the public can generally perceive. Since the situation is not so bad, then we should naturally not play all the hole cards in our hands, but keep as much as we can, even if we try to warm up a little slower, but also to stabilize the chassis. As long as we do this, we will be able to remain calm and calm in this Sino-US financial war, in this turning point in the global economic cycle, and in this great change unseen in a century. 100 help plan