Author |Li Chengdong.
Dong Ge Notes Issue 113:
When you make money, you are a value investor, and if you lose money, it is called recognizing the reality, or you have to return to the speculative route of the first operation.
It's just a trick to make money - follow the right person!It is very important to follow the right person, and the person who makes money with him will definitely make money. It doesn't take a lot of tricks to make money.
From a global perspective, China's e-commerce penetration rate is the highest. Even the United States is much lower than China, not to mention the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Europe as a whole.
One is that, compared with domestic, there are many rules for foreign cross-border exports, retail and other consumer industries, which are very strict. On the other hand, in essence, there are more rules, which limits the opportunities for latecomers to enter. For example, in Europe, there will be rules such as restricted goods**, discounts, discounts, etc. For example, tagging users and obtaining user data are illegal and subject to fines. For example, there was an incident in France where an employee was fined for collecting his or her religion.
Poor country mentality and rich country mentality
I've heard of the poor man's thinking and the rich man's thinking before, the poor man's mindset is to desperately save money, and the rich man's mindset is to try his best to borrow money and spend money to make money.
With inflation, the poor are getting poorer and the rich are getting richer.
Brother Nadong, today let's talk about the thinking of poor countries and rich countries.
Poor countries are desperately trying to keep their exchange rates down, maintain their cost advantages, maintain exports, and save money. Rich countries are desperately trying to pull up their exchange rates, import goods at low cost, and maintain a high level of domestic inflation and high standards, while poor countries accumulate foreign exchange reserves, buy rich country government bonds, and lend money to rich countries.
The thinking of a poor country is to maintain the income of selling labor in low-end industries and low-end countries to compete for three melons and two dates, and the thinking of a rich country is to upgrade high-end industries, do knowledge innovation, do materials, do channels, do brands, and compete with developed countries for high-end industries.
Can poor countries be comfortable lying at the low end all the time, no, every ten years rich countries engage in a wave of financial crises, cut a wave of leeks, and attract the wealth of the rich in poor countries. Infinite loop, how can poor countries turn over?
De-globalization, China's globalization has just begun
Why is it said that the United States is de-globalized, and the globalization of the Chinese has just begun?
Dong Ge had dinner and chatted with a friend who had wandered around overseas, and Southeast Asia also has a chain of contempt, most of which are also made by Chinese. P2P cash loans belong to the upper middle, ** and offline casinos belong to the medium, and northern Myanmar wire fraud belongs to the lowest.
It is not so much electric fraud as it is the tying of votes and squeezing, the means are barbaric, the technical content is low, the income is not high, and the reputation is particularly poor.
The largest online gambling company in a certain country in Southeast Asia, with an annual profit of tens of billions, makes too much money from Chinese, and does not dare to return to China. I made too much money, and now I buy all kinds of operating assets and launder the money.
The problem of capital in and out of the Indian market is very large, so it has also brought a huge profit business, that is, underground money banks, and the middle channel collects 10%.
It is still difficult to make money in Southeast Asian e-commerce, and the people in Southeast Asia are still too poor, and in recent years, companies that sell water have made a fortune, underground money banks, money laundering (casinos), logistics, marketing, etc.
It is also a developing country market, and it is actually easier to make money in the Middle East and Africa markets. But it is not about e-commerce and the Internet, but about production, offline retail and branding.
We know that Transsion is the king of Africa, selling mobile phones. Yesterday, I learned for the first time that there are two more consumer goods in Africa with more than 10 billion yuan. It was the first to sell building materials in Africa, and later turned to fast-moving consumer goods, moving the surplus production lines in China to Africa.
You can understand that China was a shortage economy 20 years ago, relying on imports, and prices were extremely expensive. Unification, how did Want Want and Master Kong develop by relying on the Chinese market.
There is a dolphin society who does B2B business in Nigeria, hundreds of millions of dollars a year, and now one of the biggest problems is the shortage of upstream goods, because there is no competition, and the profit margin of the factory is very high. There is also a member who is doing e-commerce in Africa, and he is also facing the problem of ** chain, and now he is also trying to find a way to cooperate with ** business locally.
Yesterday, I also talked to a startup company I invested in, hugged the thigh of the platform, and began to open factories in Mexico and Turkey. And it is the same business, and the profit of overseas factories is more than 20 points higher than that of domestic factories. The domestic market is too volatile.
Some time ago, I chatted with the founder of Jasmine Milk White, who invested, and was also planning to go overseas. There are already a large number of consumer companies in China going overseas, such as MINISO should have thousands of stores overseas, and Mixue Bingcheng has more than 2,000 stores in Indonesia.
Companies that really want to do great consumer goods, sincerely suggest looking at the overseas market, the sky is high and the birds are flying, and the sea is wide and the fish is leaping, mainly because there is no domestic market so volume.
Is consumption really downgraded?
Is it really all about consumption downgrading?So today I'll talk about a case of consumption upgrading.
There has always been a discussion of consumption downgrade, it seems that consumption downgrade has become a trend, and Jingdong has had to lower its price and Pinduoduo to start a subsidy war of 10 billion yuan.
Of course, if you search for the keyword "consumption downgrade", it has actually been discussed for at least five or six years.
You can first look at some consumption data, Luckin Coffee's financial report, the total net income in the third quarter was 7200 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 849% and net profit 9600 million. This year, the number of Luckin Coffee stores far exceeded that of Starbucks China, and its revenue surpassed that of Starbucks China. I'll just wait for 9When the wind of 9 yuan consumption downgrade crushed Starbucks China's performance, Starbucks released its latest financial report.
But I didn't wait for Starbucks' **!
In the Chinese market, Starbucks posted revenue of 840.6 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 15%;There were 326 net new stores, setting a new record;Same-store sales increased by 5% and same-store transactions increased by 8%. Starbucks CEO Na Sihan said that the revenue in the Chinese market has increased sequentially in each quarter, and the revenue in the second half of the year increased by 20% compared to the first half.
I thought that China's middle-class consumption was downgraded, and Starbucks, which couldn't afford to drink more than 30 yuan, switched to 99 Luckin Coffee!Why not?
This year's coffee market is so hot, which has also led to the doubling of coffee raw materials in upstream Yunnan, almost 14 yuan a kilogram.
Did all the people who drink milk tea change to coffee?No, this year's milk tea market is still expanding rapidly, and Bawang Tea Ji, Aunt Shanghai, can open two or three hundred new stores a month. As a small and micro shareholder, I also open 50 or 60 new stores a month. Although the price of Hey Tea has been reduced this year, it is also more than a dozen yuan a cup.
From the point of view of thirst quenching demand, it doesn't cost money to drink boiled tap water, a few cents for a glass of bottled water, 2 yuan for a bottle of bottled water, only 2-3 yuan for a bag of instant Nescafe, and four or five yuan for drinking Yuanqi Forest Oriental Leaves. This year, I actually have the money to drink milk tea and coffee for more than a dozen yuan.
Is this a "consumption upgrade" in the beverage market?
The founder of an invested project said that young people who go to shopping malls now spend more than a dozen yuan, just to buy a happy one, and it is not expensive.
If you go to the mall more,You will also find that the children's play area business is booming,The automatic vending lottery machine business is also very hot,Driven by this year's Chinese lottery revenue rose by more than 50%.
Doing platform traffic is a problem.
How to break through the traffic problem?
1. Just like making a brand, traffic is very important, and the first chain is very important. At this time, it is necessary to consider the problem in stages: 1-200 million is a consideration - to consider survival;2-1 billion is a consideration - consider ways and means;10-20 is another consideration - think about strategy;
The problems considered at different stages are different, the abilities required are different, and the value ideas adopted are also different. There are a lot of values shared in the market, and there are a lot of things to say, and it is very right to take them out alone, but it is necessary to consider the applicable stage of brand development, which is very valuable but does not match the brand, which is also not conducive to brand development.
2. To understand what stage of the business you are?In the same track as you, consider the location of your brand.
The truth that you get what you pay for
I'll give you 10,000, can you touch my breasts?The beauty immediately took off her clothes, and ten minutes later, the beauty: "Why don't you touch it yet?"."I don't have any money. "This is the highest level of the current market, and it is the best policy!
Many of today's customers only inquire about **, rather than actually placing orders!Be cautious when showing your hole cards!Naked customers don't have to be!There are a lot of hooligans!Don't ask me how much is the minimum, how low ** can satisfy your desires, no profit service, he dares to do it, do you dare to use it?Please keep in mind the old saying "one price is worth the price", a very realistic market, the reality of the status quo ......
Male consumption is different from female consumption
Women's consumption is self-pleasing;Male consumption is scene consumption.
There are 4 types of psychological accounts for male consumption:
The first is the regular spending account – the account with the least spending;Men are essentially more picky. This part of the consumption is to meet the daily life.
The second is the investment account;KTV, foot washing, bathing centers, cigarettes and alcohol, Moutai and other consumption that is willing to invest in making money is called an investment account.
The third is the emotional retention account – the easiest account to spend money;Dating girlfriends, wives, family outings, etc.
The fourth is the filial piety account;The consumption of children's education, pension and other parts is also very large.
About the retail format
Retail, there is no reason to say that it is only online. Just like a few years ago, traditional retailers had to do e-commerce. Therefore, Dongge said that e-commerce will inevitably do offline. But how to define the value of offline is different for different categories.
In addition, it is necessary to solve a problem of replicable scale, venture capital did not invest before, and felt that offline was an addition business, opening stores one by one, no, the growth was too slow. E-commerce, multiplication business, throwing money at ** chain and traffic, you can grow rapidly!
In fact, investors have not understood a truth before, the problem of efficiency and retention rate. E-commerce is indeed growing fast, but many of them are fake sales of the wool party, in fact, the efficiency of burning money is very low, and the final retention is very low. In addition, although traditional offline retail is a little slower, it has found a suitable method and model, and the growth can be very fast, and the key is that the retention rate is very high. For the same penny, the output is much higher.
Although the essence is retail, the difference between traditional retail and online retail lies in the different story imagination!Now that capital is moving offline, there is not only the credit of Hema Xiansheng, but also the objective factor of too much social capital.
Manage vulnerability thinking
Sometimes, we overestimate the intelligent decision-making of e-commerce based on data mining and analysis, and many e-commerce companies are still inseparable from traditional brand procurement, pricing and other issues. How to delegate quickly and fully, the basis of authorization is trust, and what is the basis of trust?Gang?Nepotism or meritocracy?I always think about how to be faster, but I rarely think about how to be healthy. There are loopholes in management and lack of internal control, which is fast at this time, and it is going to kill people.
The basic framework of a business plan
Dong Ge suggests:1What to do?Business model. 2.Who does this?Meet the team;3.How much is the market value of this, and what is the market situation?4.Why do you want to do this, and where are the pain points in the industry?What problems does the new model solve?5.What stage is it now?6.How much does it cost to sell how many shares?What do you do with the money?7.What to do next, plan in stages. 7.15 pages ppt is good!