Author |Guo Yiming, editor|Wang Jinxi.
*: Jufeng Investment Advisory, good ** application.
Opinion: The 2023 A** field has not performed well, but it has ushered in a major change in history. In the historical context of major changes, market investment may usher in new changes in the future. Breaking the previous investment ideas and embracing the new changes in the future market may be the biggest role of summarizing the capital market in 2023.
The capital market in 2023 has broken many laws in history:First, the historical pattern of multiple indices is broken. For example, the Hang Seng Index has never been in the negative for four consecutive years, and the general trend of closing the negative this year has been determined, and the Hang Seng Index ushered in the first annual four consecutive negative in history. For another example, the CSI 300 has never had a three-in-a-row annual line in history, and this year will continue to be the next year, and there will be the first three-in-a-row annual line three-in-a-row and so onFor 2024, this change heralds a new historical law or a reinterpretation. Especially under such an important change in the performance of the index, then the past becomes history, but it cannot be absolutely called a law, and under the old law is broken, the later period may present a new historical law, but it takes time to wait and excavate;
In 2023, the macro fundamentals will usher in a recovery, but the A** market will not buy it, and even most assets will fall miserably. According to the past historical law, in the economic recovery cycle, policies such as money supply began to work slowly, the economy began to warm, and assets began to return. At this stage, the value of the ** asset will gradually begin to appear. However, since 2023, although the economy has ushered in a recovery, under the weak recovery, the overall assets of ** have been sluggish, the performance of the whole year has been poor, and the overall investment value has been missing under most major indexes**. For 2024, the absolute pertinence of ** assets under the economic cycle may gradually weaken, and it is more important to pay attention to the industrial cycle.
In 2023, the overall decline will be carried out, but the performance will not be bad. According to the data, as of December 28, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, and the ChiNext Index were respectively **30% and 1991%。In terms of sectors, since the beginning of this year, a total of 9 industry indices (Shenwan level 1) have closed up, and 22 industries have closed down. However, the performance is not bad, excluding the new stocks listed this year, among the 5022 ** in the whole market, a total of 2679 have achieved ** during the year, accounting for more than half;137** have doubled their share prices, and 470** have risen by more than 50% during the year. For 2024, the different trends of ** and the index may become more and more differentiated, which may have an important relationship with the continuous expansion of the market, and under the continuous expansion, the aggregation of high-quality sectors and ** may be stronger.
In 2023, the A-share structure will be repeated, but there will be no large amplitude. Even from the highest 3418 points to the current lowest 2882 points, the amplitude of the Shanghai Index this year is 17%, which is relatively small compared to the A-shares that often exceed 20% of the amplitude throughout the year. In this process, even if the market sentiment and confidence are bursting, and the market fundamentals are good, the index seems to lack momentum and the upward amplitude is not large. Behind this, it is still related to the increasing total volume and volume of the market, and under this, the lack of funds cannot support and boost the larger market volume, and this amplitude, especially the upward amplitude, may become more and more limited. Therefore, for 2024, the key thing to pay attention to is the situation of long-term funds entering the market.
In short, the outgoing year of 2023, although the performance is not good, it has ushered in many historic changes, which allow investors to summarize the past year** while also bringing new thinking for next year**. Under the new changes, the market may also usher in a greater change, we investors should adapt to the changes in the market, change the way of thinking, to strive for possible gains!
Author: Guo Yiming Practicing Certificate: A0680612120002
Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute specific operation advice, and you shall operate at your own risk and profit and loss.