South Korea's 20th ** election has come to an end, and Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea's opposition party was elected by a landslide. Yoon Suk-yeol has repeatedly stressed the need to strengthen alliances with the United States and take a tough stance toward China. His election has been confirmed by South Korea's Election Management Commission, and he is expected to officially succeed Moon Jae-in in May this year. And soon after he was elected, Biden took the initiative to call him, even earlier than the current Moon Jae-in in South Korea, which is enough to show the importance of US-South Korea relations in Yoon Suk-yeol's mind. As for his views on the future of China-South Korea relations, Yoon Suk-yeol answered in just four words at his first press conference – mutual respect.
Yoon Suk-yeol's election has attracted widespread attention from South Korea** and the public, especially his attitude towards China. During the election campaign, Yoon Suk-yeol made it clear that if he is elected, he will continue to deploy the THAAD anti-missile system in South Korea, which undoubtedly touched a sensitive point in Sino-South Korean relations. Moreover, Yoon Suk-yeol received a ** from Biden as soon as he was elected, which made South Korea ** worried, especially the Global Times and Yonhap News Agency, which both warned that if Yoon Suk-yeol joins the "G4" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia or deploys additional "THAAD", then China-South Korea relations will face the threat of a "storm".
South Korea's concerns are not unreasonable, after all, South Korea's security and economy are closely linked to the United States and China, and if China and the United States "choose sides", then South Korea will be in a dilemma. Therefore, South Korea called on Yoon Suk-yeol to carefully consider his foreign policy and not easily trigger a "storm" in Sino-South Korean relations.
However, some experts have a different view of Yoon's election. They believe that some of Yoon's remarks during the election campaign may only be to attract the attention of voters, but do not necessarily represent his true thoughts. They pointed out that in South Korean political circles, no matter who is in charge, they will not easily risk undermining China-South Korea relations to deploy or increase the THAAD system, because this is the bottom line of China-South Korea relations. They also said that South Korea should maintain a certain degree of neutrality and not "choose sides" between China and the United States, so that it can better safeguard South Korea's interests and play South Korea's role as a bridge.
In short, experts generally believe that although Yoon Suk-yeol's election has brought some challenges to China-South Korea relations, it will not lead to fundamental changes in China-South Korea relations, because South Korea's interests are closely linked to China, and South Korea is also aware of China's concerns, and no matter who comes to power, South Korea's interests will be put first, so there will be no storms in China-South Korea relations.
However, is such a ** overly optimistic?In our view, while there are some reasons for optimism, China should be prepared for the worst-case scenario, just in case. We say this mainly based on the following considerations.
On the one hand, the United States is very interested in the election of Yoon Suk-yeol, and Biden can't wait to hit him soon after his election, and this ** is even earlier than his ** with the current **Moon Jae-in in South Korea**. In the end, Yoon Suk-yeol pushed everything else to the back in order to talk to Biden. According to a person in South Korea, this shows the intention of the United States to establish close ties with South Korea. As for the purpose of the United States, it is self-evident that it wants to win over Yoon Suk-yeol and make him take a tougher stance on China.
On the other hand, the belief that Yoon Suk-yeol will put South Korea's interests first may be just a good wish, and it may not necessarily be realized in reality. For example, there are deep economic and trade exchanges between China and Australia, Australia earns nearly 500 billion yuan from China every year, from Australia's national interests, Australia should not follow the United States to confront China, but the fact is the opposite, Morrison on the issue of China, in step with the United States, and even openly declared that "to prepare for war with China", obviously he did not take Australia's interests to heart. From this example, it can be seen that who can guarantee that South Korea's new ** Yoon Suk-yeol will not become a lackey of the United States?Therefore, China-ROK relations should take precautions in advance and not regret it until something happens.