(This article was first published on Knowledge Planet on December 28).
Let's talk about the three institutes today
Yesterday we received more reliable information, and the three institutes are now already moving in.
This news undoubtedly shows that Zhongrong Trust has taken another solid step in the matter of equity delivery, and it can be said that half of the "new father" has reached in.
The resolution of the ZR incident may be about to open a new chapter.
There may still be people who don't know what the "three houses" are, the three are simply accounting firms, teacher firms, and asset appraisal companies, and they are also known as the "three treasures of demolition", which belong to the type of "night owls enter the house and come to nothing".
Generally speaking, the three of them stationed at the same time means that there will be major changes in the corporate governance structure, either bankruptcy, merger, or reorganization, anyway, just like two divorces, once they arrive at the Civil Affairs Bureau, no matter who they are with in the future, it is basically impossible to reunite.
I won't go into detail about the role of the "three institutes", no one likes to read this thing when it is written, so you should remember a little bit.
Suppose Zhongrong is selling a house now, and the "second letter" came in to value the house, what is the location of the house?Who is the developer?How many floors?How much is the furniture worth?How much residual value is left in the renovation?Basically, it's about this business level.
And what about the "three institutes"?Let's see if there is a hard flaw in the transaction of this house, and the property rights are not clearDid the owner take the house as a mortgage?Is there a problem with the quality of the property itself?Was the previous valuation accurate?The discussion is about issues at the corporate level.
Basically, after the "three firms" have combed around, it is clear whether there are any hidden injuries in this transaction and whether the valuation is accurate.
Therefore, the entry of the "three institutes" is often regarded as a forward movement with a major change in the company's equity.
In this case of Zhongrong, if combined with the current actual situation of Zhongrong, and the previous lightning delisting of Jingwei Textile Machinery and the "relevant determination of the supervision of the investment of a certain asset of the state" issued by a certain committee of the state, it can be reasonably speculated that Jingwei has an opportunity to choose to divest its 37% equity in Zhongrong Trust.
And no matter who takes over the 37% shares, then there is no doubt that he is the "new father" of Zhongrong in the future.
Taking into account the relevant provisions of the central identity of the warp and weft textile machinery and the transfer of a certain capital of a relevant country, there is a high probability that this "new father" will be produced in the relevant enterprises with financial business under the "State Committee and the Ministry of Finance", which is actually very small.
So how long will there be news of the "new father" after the "three institutes" settle in?
This is really difficult to determine, because this is directly related to the size of the company, the difficulty of the business, and the number of manpower settled, according to the information that can be found so far, "Chuanxin" was officially announced in May "three institutes" settled, and in July, there is a payment plan has been submitted to report the relevant information out.
However, considering the actual situation of Chuanxin, this time can only be used as a general reference, and cannot be generalized.
After all, the time when "Chuanxin" custody entered was very late, and it took a year and a half to complete the verification of assets.
On the other hand, Zhongrong began to suspend the exchange of actively managed products at the end of July and early August, and at the end of August, the news of "Erxin" stationed in the condominium came out, which is completely incompatible with the snail speed of Chuanxin, and the custodian team known as "hundreds" at that time was not comparable to the custody scale of "two or three big cats and kittens" of Chuanxin.
Although it is not possible to accurately estimate how long it will take for the "new father" to appear after the "three institutes" are stationed, combined with some previous actions, we can conclude that this time will be much more efficient than that of "Kawashin" at that time.
So after the "three institutes" are stationed, what will be the impact on our payment plan and payment time?
In fact, the core of this problem lies in the specific path to solve the problem of Zhongrong is related to the attitude of the management.
It is through the entry of the "new father" and the resumption of normal business after the shareholders' capital injection to solve the liquidity problem;
It is still a good solution to solve the problem by disposing of assets through AMC or by the existing shareholders separately.
But I personally am not very optimistic about the "new father" capital injection of this way to deal with the problem, not that it is completely impossible, just that his probability is relatively small, even if the "new father" settled, it is likely to solve the problem of the survival of the future of the financial system, rather than the existing asset payment problem, the main logic has three points, you can see if it makes sense.
The first is the change in the speed and rhythm of the delisting of a certain machine at Jingwei.
Careful friends may find that after October, there is very little discussion about the "new father" taking over to deal with the problem of Zhongrong, and basically the main focus is on whether there is AMC or other investors to take over the direction of Zhongrong's underlying assets.
One of the most important reasons is that when a certain machine of Jingwei was delisted, the rhythm changed quickly and slowly, which made me realize that the original script may have undergone some changes.
In fact, taking the shareholders' meeting of Jingwei Textile Machinery on September 15 as a watershed, we can clearly see that Jingwei a machine on the issue of delisting, showing two completely different attitudes that were very urgent before and very procrastinating afterward.
Before September 15th, from the suspension of a certain machine of Jingwei, to the official announcement of voluntary delisting, to the convening of the shareholders' meeting, these three things were almost in one go, without any delay in between, and every necessary link was completed within the fastest time limit.
On August 28, the suspension of trading, on August 30, the official announcement of the delisting and the initiation of the general meeting of shareholders, at the same time launched the relevant treatment plan for cash options, 10 working days later on September 15, the general meeting of shareholders was held, during which in order to fear that the shareholders' meeting will not pass, in the case of its controlling shareholders occupy an absolute advantage, it is also actively to contact the small shareholders of the circulating shares to collect the voting rights in their hands, such a performance is undoubtedly very urgent.
However, after September 15, it took 5 days for the approval of a Shenzhen firm alone, which was almost the deadline for the approval of the delisting, and then after receiving the approval of the Shenzhen firm, it was delayed for another 17 days.
You must know that this is a voluntary delisting application, and the warp and weft textile machinery as a central company does not have any big trouble, so why does it take so long for the approval of a certain deep institute?If he was really in a hurry, he could have completed such an action before eleven, after all, it was all the prefix of the national character, and it was good to say hello through a certain prison if there was any problem, and it was not a violation of the rules.
In addition, the part about the cash option has been repeatedly postponed, and from this action, Jingwei's main focus is on dealing with the complexity of future equity, which is completely inconsistent with the same sense of urgency as stepping on the tail before.
So what caused this problem?
I guess it's probably because of the entry of "Erxin", although the settlement of Erxin was officially announced on September 15 (this time point is familiar), but all kinds of evidence show that Erxin settled in Zhongrong much earlier than this, probably at the end of August, and half a month is not much, but less is enough, enough to sort out the main problems.
Therefore, the subsequent delay is likely to mean that the script has changed, which means that the road of solving the problem through the injection of "new dad" funds may not work, at least temporarily.
We won't guess the specific reason here, and we can't guess it.
When we need to remember that no matter what the final script looks like, the attitude of the top management has always been very clear, whether it is the lightning delisting of Jingwei or the speed of light entry of Erxin, this kind of efficiency and ability is not something that can be matched by a certain department in the black prison, so the main purpose of quickly dealing with this problem should come from higher management.
Second, since the problem cannot be solved by injecting funds into the "new father", is there any other way?
This is actually a lot, for example, the original shareholders increased their capital and shares, and there were rumors that the management called the major shareholders of ZZ and ZR to a meeting, saying that they were asked to pay for it to deal with the current problems?
I believe that this news is not a vacancy, because it is very logical.
In essence, in the years of ZZ and ZR's existence, these countries have enjoyed the dividends of the previous ZZ and ZR development, which is a real dividend, and it is the net profit of real gold.
Now that something is wrong, it's obviously unreasonable for you to say that you don't have any money out of the way.
But many people say that they are very likely to have no money, have you forgotten that their identity is a central one, which represents the highest credit rating of domestic enterprises, and it is not a big problem to borrow money from the bank, right?
Moreover, whether this part of the money is used to take over the underlying assets or to increase the capital of Zhongrong, it can substantially solve the problem of lack of liquidity in Zhongrong.
Coupled with the realization of Zhongrong's original own assets, coupled with the payment of AMC to undertake a part of the real estate project, as long as the bottom is not rotten to the point of resentment, it is not difficult to solve it even according to the complete market.
Third, so far, there have been no major changes in ZR's business team, you must know that maintaining a team of 2,000 people costs money, and in addition to the workplaces in various places, this cost will cost hundreds of millions of dollars a year even if it is less, right?
You must know that whether it is Chuanxin Anxin or later ZZ after the problem of the thunderstorm is clear, there are probably layoffs, which basically proves that the company level has thought that there is almost no way to return to normal operation, which is a kind of active stop-loss behavior logic.
But what about Zhongrong?Is there such a state where the tree is falling and scattering?
So to sum up, the entry of the "three institutes" is generally a good thing, which means that half of the "new father" has already stepped in, and there may be a wait for when the hijab will be lifted, but I don't think it will take a long time.
In addition, there are actually many ways to solve the problem of Zhongrong, and everyone should not completely pin their hopes on the new father, he may or may not make a move, but whether he will or not, Zhongrong must be perfectly solved.
And according to some information that can be confirmed now, it is possible for Zhongrong to return to the state of independent operation in the past, although at that time, the entire business model may undergo major changes, and the equity vesting may not be the same as before, after all, there is always some price to be paid for rebirth.
Wait and see, I don't think there's anything to worry about.
(This article was first published on Knowledge Planet on December 28).