Recently, it was reported that MINISO was circulated by the market for the company's short report, superimposed on the senior management team twice, a total of 1.8 million shares, if it corresponds to $25, it will reach $45 million (about 3.).200 million yuan).
On December 5, its Hong Kong stock **stock price**1404%；The day before (December 4), its U.S. stock **stock price**1436%。
At the same time, MINISO Group Holdings*** hereinafter referred to as "MINISO", 09896HK) announced its first quarter report for fiscal year 2024, and there are still hidden concerns behind its performance growth.
Fuji Research According to MINISO's latest fiscal year performance report, it was found that in Q3 2023, MINISO's net profit growth rate decreased by 122 year-on-year28%。At present, MINISO is mainly facing problems such as slowing down in net profit growth and low proportion of direct sales model, which is mainly due to the increase in marketing and distribution expenses caused by the accelerated expansion of MINISO stores, and the new stores are mainly third-party stores; At the same time, the fierce competition in the cross-border e-commerce market has brought more uncertainty to the performance growth of MINISO.
MINISO is a global value retailer that provides lifestyle and home furnishing products featuring IP design. At present, MINISO has incubated two brands, namely MINISO and TOP TOY.
As of December 7, Hong Kong stocks**, MINISO closed at 40HK$60 shares, corresponding to a market capitalization of 512400 million Hong Kong dollars (equivalent to about RMB 469.)500 million yuan); This compares to the highest share price of 59 in September85 Hong Kong dollars shares, the share price of MINISO has fallen by more than 3%.
Fuji Research According to MINISO's latest fiscal year performance report, it was found that in Q3 2023, MINISO's revenue will be 379.1 billion yuan, an increase of 36 percent year-on-year74%；For the same period, adjusted net profit was 64.2 billion yuan, an increase of 53 percent year-on-year8%。
During the same period, the number of MINISO's overseas directly operated stores was 202, an increase of 71 year-on-year, while the number of third-party stores was 2,111, an increase of 215 year-on-year.
In an old article in October ("Miniso's Turnaround, Ye Guofu's "Willows and Flowers"?》We focus on the sluggish growth of MINISO's business, and its business model has been questioned by capital and has fallen into a crisis of confidence.
Today, MINISO is not only facing the slowdown in net profit growth and the relatively low proportion of the direct sales model, but also facing the risk that high performance growth is difficult to sustain.
In the face of the slowdown in global economic growth and the intensification of cross-border e-commerce's "involution", can MINISO tell a good story of going overseas? As a result, Fuji Research has updated some of the data and charts from the October article, as follows:
On September 15 last year, MINISO announced a buyback plan to repurchase up to US$100 million worth of the company's outstanding ordinary shares or American depositary shares on behalf of its ordinary shares in the open market for a period of 12 months from September 29, 2022.
Fuji Research According to the new version of the financial report of MINISO, it was found that the revenue in Q3 of 2023 will be 379.1 billion yuan, an increase of 36 percent year-on-year7%；Adjusted net profit was 64.2 billion yuan, an increase of 53 percent year-on-year8%。
At the same time, TOP TOY, a trendy toy brand that was once regarded as the "second growth curve" by MINISO, will have a revenue of 1 in Q3 20238.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 461%。
To this day, MINISO has not achieved the goal of "100 billion stores in 100 countries", when the trendy toy brand invades the hinterland, how can MINISO find a breakthrough path? Going to sea or trendy play, who is the best solution?
In 2004, Ye Guofu aimed at the low-cost women's jewelry market and created the "Oops Yaya" chain jewelry points, which developed to nearly 3,000 stores in 2010, with annual sales of more than 1 billion yuan. But a few years later, the rise of e-commerce made "Oops Ya" gradually decline, and Ye Guofu's first venture ended in failure.
In 2013, Ye Guofu cooperated with young Japanese designer Shunya Miyake to found MINISO. At the beginning of its establishment, it rapidly developed to major cities across the country by virtue of its cost-effective advantages and the scale effect brought by the rapid expansion of stores. It was successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange in October 2020.
According to the financial report of MINISO, in Q3 2023, its revenue will be 379.1 billion yuan, an increase of 36 percent year-on-year7%。For the same period, adjusted net profit was 64.2 billion yuan, an increase of 53 percent year-on-year8%。
In Q3 2023, the net profit growth rate of MINISO has problems again. According to its financial report, in Q3 2023, its net profit attributable to the parent company will be 61.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4879%。In 2023, Q1 and Q2 will achieve a net profit of 123 billion yuan, 176.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18406%，177.71%。
The revenue growth rate in Q3 2023 decreased by 128 compared with Q2 202392 percentage points, the growth rate fell further.
In the view of Fuji Research, the growth rate of MINISO's net profit has slowed down significantly, and it is experiencing growth pains. Due to the increase in marketing and distribution expenses due to the accelerated expansion, the growth of its net profit has slowed down, and at the same time, due to the fierce competition in the domestic market, MINISO may need to pin its hopes on the expansion of overseas markets in the future.
In 2017, the ambitious Ye Guofu once said that "MINISO will enter 100 countries in 2019, open 10,000 stores, and achieve annual sales revenue of 100 billion".
However, this idea did not materialize. In 2019, Ye Guofu adjusted the expansion plan of "100 billion stores in 100 countries" to 2023. But this plan still seems to be elusive.
Let's take a look at the "100 countries" first, after years of efforts of MINISO, it has indeed laid out stores in 100 countries, and this goal is the only goal that has been achieved.
Looking at the "100 billion" again, according to its financial report, MINISO's revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 will be 2348.5 billion yuan, 100 billion revenue is still out of reach.
Finally, look at the "10,000 stores", in May this year, MINISO's first global *** opened in Times Square, New York, USA, and the number of MINISO stores worldwide exceeded 6,000, and the goal of "10,000 stores" is still nearly half of the way to go.
At present, the only one that has been realized in the "100 countries and 100 billion stores" plan of MINISO is "100 countries". There is still a lot of distance from the goal of "100 billion stores", unless there is a big outbreak, it is impossible for MINISO to achieve the goal in 2023.
Aside from this unattainable goal, looking at the store opening speed and operation of MINISO, Fuji Research found that the store opening speed of MINISO has increased significantly, and the growth rate of domestic business revenue is declining.
From the perspective of store opening speed, in 2023, QI-Q3 will add 74, 378, and 324 new stores respectively, according to MINISO's financial report**, it will open another 100-200 new stores in 2023; In addition, MINISO expects to add 350-450 new stores in overseas markets in 2023.
From the perspective of revenue structure, MINISO's domestic business in Q3 2023 will achieve revenue of 249.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 347%, accounting for 65% of revenue84%；International business achieved revenue of 129.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 408%, accounting for 34 percent of revenue16%。
Although the number of MINISO overseas stores increased year-on-year, according to the Shanxi ** research report, the GMV of single stores in MINISO overseas regions has not yet recovered to the pre-epidemic level.
At the same time, MINISO's revenue growth in China is shrinking. According to its financial report, its domestic revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 was 508.7 billion yuan, 213.7 billion yuan, 249.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of . 0%。
In the view of Fuji Research, the goal of "100 billion stores in 100 countries" is difficult to achieve in the short term, although the foreign business has achieved high growth in the third quarter of 2023, the growth of foreign business is mainly due to the increase of third-party stores and the adoption of the ** model. At present, the growth rate of domestic business is declining, and what MINISO urgently needs is to find the second growth curve.
Trendy toys are the answer given by MINISO for the second growth curve.
In December 2020, MINISO launched the trendy toy brand TOPTOY, positioned as the "Asian trendy toy meeting point", and the first store opened the world's first store in Guangzhou Grandview Plaza on December 18, 2020, with more than 4,000 SKUs, bringing together IP and trendy toy brands such as Hello Kitty, Marvel, Disney, DC, and Naruto.
On October 21 this year, MINISO's first Sanrio-themed IP-limited theme store opened in Margo City, a popular shopping mall in Indonesia. On November 10, the UK*** officially opened on Oxford Street, London, the world's top business district.
Source: MINISO official website.
According to the financial report, in Q3 2023, TOPTOY will achieve revenue of 18.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 461%。
According to data from the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the scale of the global toy industry will exceed US$34 billion in 2022, and the market size is expected to be close to US$45 billion in 2024. In the same year, the size of China's toy market reached 47.8 billion yuan, and it is expected that the size of China's toy market will exceed 160 billion yuan by 2027.
However, Fuji Research believes that if MINISO wants to continue to make efforts in the trendy toy market, there is a mountain called "own IP" that it is difficult to cross in a short period of time.
The core of the trendy toy market lies in channels and IP, and for MINISO, which has 6,000 stores, the channel advantage is self-evident.
However, unlike Pop Mart's business model, which focuses on its own IP, TOP TOY is currently focusing on co-branded and cooperative IP toys while launching original IP products, absorbing more internationally renowned trendy toy products and IPs, and is more inclined to the "department store model".
As of September 30, 2023, MINISO has established copyright cooperation with more than 80 well-known IPs around the world, has more than 2,300 IP co-branded core SKUs, and actively incubates and cultivates original IPs, such as Dundun Chicken, Penpen and China Panda.
Source: MINISO official website.
In the view of Fuji Research, the current trendy toy market space is large, but the competition is also fierce, and TopTOY's "department store model" may be able to help it expand rapidly in the early stage, but after expanding to a certain extent, the weakness of its own IP will easily make it surpass by competitors, and under such fierce competition, there is not much time left for TopTOY's own IP.
MINISO seems to be experiencing the pain and bottleneck of going overseas and trendy play.
Going overseas, MINISO's overseas revenue in the third quarter of 2023 will be 129.5 billion yuan, and has been 5 consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth of about 40%, but at present, the main increase overseas is third-party stores, using the ** model, MINISO can only go overseas as a long-term breakthrough path.
Although the "department store model" has brought rapid growth in the short term, the weakness of its own IP has brought uncertainty to future expansion.
At present, MINISO is mainly facing problems such as slowing down in net profit growth and low proportion of direct sales model, which is mainly due to the increase in marketing and distribution expenses caused by the accelerated expansion of MINISO stores, and the new stores are mainly third-party stores; At the same time, the fierce competition in the cross-border e-commerce market has brought more uncertainty to the performance growth of MINISO.
In the face of the slowdown of global economic growth and the intensification of cross-border e-commerce "involution", how can MINISO tell a good story of going overseas?
This article is partially referenced.
1."MINISO goes to sea and earns dollars with China's ** chain", commercial data pie.
2."Stock Price Plunge? MINISO Emergency Response", New Consumption**.
3."MINISO fell 14%: suspected because of the executive Li Minxin's large ** or cashed out 300 million", Lei Handed.
Author |Ruonan Yongyang
Typography | cathy
Executive Producer | yoda
Produced by |No two research