Text丨Yu Duoduo Editor丨Baijin.
*丨正經社 (ID: zhengjingshe).
This article is about 3900 words).
Some time ago, a company was on the hot search, because of an employee stock ownership plan released earlier, and the boss mobilized everyone to increase their holdings of their own company. After that, the company's stock price went all the way, and due to the implementation of the shareholding plan, the leverage was doubled, resulting in a significant reduction in the funds of many employees participating in the plan, and even the risk of liquidation.
This company is Dongfang Yuhong.
On March 27, 2021, Oriental Yuhong disclosed the "2021 Employee Stock Ownership Plan (Draft)" for the first time, planning to raise no more than 1.7 billion yuan, with "shares" as the subscription unit, 1 yuan per share, the total number of shares not exceeding 1.7 billion, and 1,611 participants in the plan.
On April 30, 2023, Oriental Yuhong issued a progress announcement, and the total actual payment of the self-raised part was 13$7.7 billion plus double leverage to 5578 yuan of shares of **purchase of the company**, the total transaction amount of 276 billion yuan. Among them, it also includes 15 million shares of the company held by Chairman Li Weiguo, with an average transaction price of 53$79 shares.
At that time, Li Weiguo promised that he would cover the principal of employees' own funds, and if the annualized rate of return of funds was less than 8%, he would also provide compensation with an annualized interest rate of 8%.
Up to now, the ** held by the shareholding plan has been substantially **, and the ** of the shareholding plan has withdrawn from the top ten shareholders of Oriental Yuhong.
This also means that Li Weiguo wants to make up for the real money of employees. According to the posts of many departing employees in the stock bar, they spent millions to buy the company** with leverage, although they signed a statement to give up their earnings, but now they have not even got back the principal after a year of resignation.
According to Dongfang Yuhong's announcement on the evening of December 28, Li Weiguo and his concerted actor Li Xingguo hold a total of about 5 shares of the company8.2 billion shares, accounting for 23 percent of the company's total share capital12%, of which, the total pledged shares are about 28.4 billion shares, accounting for 1126%, accounting for 48% of the company's shares71%。
Falling stock pricesOn December 28, the penultimate trading day of 2023, the intraday share price of Dongfang Yuhong, which was once "waterproof", once again broke a new low in the year. Last appeared in the year 18The lowest price of 35 yuan shares (the former resumption, the same below) is February 19, 2020, which is almost 4 years old. And from June 1, 2021 the history of the most **6374 yuan shares to December 29 this year ** price of 1920 yuan shares, has fallen by 70%.
If we go back a little, we can more intuitively feel how miserable Oriental Yuhong's stock price has been in the past two years.
In 2022, **3598%；
In 2023, **4264%！
Once the highest market value exceeded 160 billion yuan, now only more than 48 billion yuan remains, not even a fraction of the peak.
When we mentioned in the past, the stock price of a company fell badly, and it was often described as "cut in half". Looking back at Dongfang Yuhong, it can be described as "ankle chop". If you continue to fall, you will almost lose yourself!
In the face of the endless decline in stock prices, on November 13, Dongfang Yuhong issued an announcement, announcing that it intends to repurchase shares with 300 million yuan to 600 million yuan, and repurchase no more than 32 yuan shares. The buyback represents approximately 074%, calculated under the lower limit, this repurchase accounts for about 037%。
But the capital market did not buy it, as of November 13**, Oriental Yuhong's share price fell 519% to close at 2264 yuan shares, a new low in the last three years.
In fact, as early as a few months ago, in the face of her own ups and downs, Zhang Bei, the secretary of Dongfang Yuhong, couldn't sit still for a long time, and affectionately sent twelve questions about her soul in the circle of friends:
However, it is useless to post a complaint on Moments, and the stock price continues to ignore and continue.
So the question is, what went wrong with this old waterproof faucet company that caused the stock price to go all the way down?
In order to clarify this question, we have to start with the history of the company.
The road to growthThe story begins with a tender more than 20 years ago.
According to public information, in 1996, the first memorial hall was renovated for bidding, and waterproofing was the focus. When the construction unit has been determined, suddenly a small business from Hunan said that they could take the project for free, and provided 6 detailed waterproof construction plans. Eventually, the ** Memorial Hall Authority agreed to take them on.
In this way, this small company brought its own construction team to Beijing, and in 1997 completed the waterproof maintenance work of the first memorial hall.
This company is called Changsha Changhong Waterproof Project***, it is the predecessor of Oriental Yuhong. The owner isLi Weiguo was born in Changde, Hunan Province in 1965.
In order to do a good job in this project, Li Weiguo spent twice the budget to complete it. After completing this project, the company faced bankruptcy. But it was Li Weiguo's move that opened up a bigger market for him.
Subsequently, some project providers took the initiative to seek cooperation. Li Weiguo also successfully entered Beijing and officially established Oriental Yuhong.
After that, the Bird's Nest, the Water Cube, Daxing Airport, the World Expo Multinational Venues, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, the Beijing-Zhangjiakou Railway, the Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway, etc., a large number of China's landmark buildings, major national infrastructure construction projects, have Li Weiguo and Dongfang Yuhong.
In 2004, Oriental Yuhong's sales volume has been in a leading position in the domestic waterproof industry, and began to develop the national market, and has set up branches in Guangzhou, Shanghai and other regions. From 2005 to 2006, it successively became the Beijing Olympic engineering service provider of Water Cube, Bird's Nest and Olympic Village, and successively won the bid for a number of high-speed rail passenger dedicated lines. In 2008, it became the first listed company of waterproof enterprises.
Revenue, also up from 1. in 2005700 million yuan, an increase of 24 in 2011700 million yuan, CAGR of 556%。These years have also been a period of rapid development of China's infrastructure, and the title of China's "infrastructure madness" also comes from this period.
Taking the express train of infrastructure construction, Oriental Yuhong has achieved rapid development.
Oriental Yuhong's development history.
In 2011, the "7.23 Yongwen Line" accident led to the slowdown of the high-speed rail project, and Oriental Yuhong seized the opportunity of the vigorous development of the real estate industry, and the strategic focus shifted from infrastructure to the real estate that had been laid out in the early stage, and the income increased from 29 in 2012800 million yuan, an increase to 140 in 2018500 million yuan, CAGR of 295%, the leading position in the industry continues to be consolidated.
From 2011 to 2018, it was the most rapid development of China's real estate in the past few years, and Oriental Yuhong also maintained rapid development with Vanke, Longfor, Zhonghai and other thighs.
After 2018, real estate investment began to slow down, and Oriental Yuhong began to adjust its organizational structure, merging direct sales and engineering channels into an engineering building materials group. By the first half of 2023, the revenue of engineering channels and retail channels has surpassed that of direct sales, and the channel transformation has been smooth. Dongfang Yuhong once said in the annual meeting that it is necessary to reduce the real estate business and increase the engineering business.
The hidden concerns behind the beautiful financial reportAs the business continues to develop, the stock price also climbs. However, in June 2021, after the stock price reached an all-time high, it started a long road.
So let's focus on what has happened in the past few years since 2021.
In 2022, revenue and net profit will both decline year-on-year, of which operating income will fall slightly by 226%, and net profit was almost cut in half, down 49 percent year-on-year57%。
From January to June 2023, it will take a sharp turn and achieve revenue of 1685.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1010%；Achieved a net profit of 133.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3807%；Realized the deduction of non-net profit of 124.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3959%。
But in the face of this excellent report card, the stock price is still going its own way, and it is still falling and falling.
Analysts of "Zhengjingshe" found that in the past few years of stock price, Dongfang Yuhong has a core indicator that is constantly **, that is, his gross profit margin. Historical data shows that from 2015 to 2017, Dongfang Yuhong's gross profit margin exceeded 40% for three consecutive years. From 2019 to 2022, its gross profit margin was respectively. 61% and 2691%, declining for 3 consecutive years. According to the 2023 interim report, Dongfang Yuhong's sales gross profit margin has rebounded slightly, to 289%, but still in the historical bottom zone.
At the same time, the interim report from 2021 to 2023 disclosed that the ROE (return on equity) values of Oriental Yuhong were: 55% and 488%。
In addition to gross profit margin and ROE indicators, there is a more serious indicator that needs to be paid attention to, that is, accounts receivable, which is also one of the fundamental reasons why Oriental Yuhong does not increase profits.
In the past three years, Dongfang Yuhong's accounts receivable have continued to grow, with 61 at the end of 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively0.1 billion yuan, 876.4 billion yuan, 1087.9 billion yuan, and the amount of accounts receivable in the first half of 2023 is 136800 million yuan. On September 30, 2023, accounts receivable rose to 15.1 billion yuan.
The reason given by Dongfang Yuhong is the increase in accounts receivable due to the increase in revenue. However, analysts at Zhengjingshe found that compared with the revenue in the first three quarters, it only increased by 8 percent year-on-year48%, while accounts receivable increased by 388%。
Uncle Zheng believes that the reason behind this is inseparable from the real estate thunderstorm.
It is in the past few years that the entire real estate industry has fallen into the freezing point in history. Evergrande, Sunac, R&F and other large real estate companies continue to break out the news of thunderstorms. The overall downturn in the real estate industry will inevitably affect the operating conditions of Oriental Yuhong, which is deeply bound to it.
The continuous growth of accounts receivable, although the financial report does not specifically say which payments, but I believe everyone understands in their hearts that it must be closely related to the thunderstorm of real estate companies.
For the problem of accounts receivable, in fact, Dongfang Yuhong has long been aware. In the recent announcements related to equity incentives, it is clearly mentioned that the growth rate of accounts receivable balance should be lower than the growth rate of operating income in the current year.
Hearts differ on the direction of the futureDongfang Yuhong once made it clear in the announcement that it would gradually reduce the proportion of real estate business.
But in recent times, its operation has been confusing.
In June 2023, Dongfang Yuhong successively participated in two plots of land in Shunyi New Town, and also jointly bid with Haimen Haitai for two plots in the shantytown of Shuangxin Village in Haidian and the auction of X47R1 plots in the Economic Development Zone. In July, he independently participated in the auction of the plot of Shahe Higher Education Park in Changping.
On October 18, there were 2 offline auctions of residential land in Beijing, of which the most concerned was the Fengtai Nanyuan plot A.
In the end, Beijing Hongxi Real Estate, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Oriental Yuhong, won the auction with 4013.5 billion yuan was sold, with a premium rate of 15% and a floor price of 4890,000 square meters.
In June 2023, Dongfang Yuhong also declared conclusively on the interactive platform that it was not involved in real estate development business.
The actual action that followed was to quickly spend a lot of money to get the land!
Let's not talk about his motivation for acquiring the land, but in the current form, is it really good to get involved in real estate development?
From the perspective of the valuation of the capital market, the PB of the real estate development company is basically less than one, and the net assets are significantly discountedDongfang Yuhong's PB is still greater than two, and this is still a case of a sharp decline for several months, let alone before.
At this time, you Dongfang Yuhong still have to rely on real estate, do you want to keep up with real estate companies?
In the past, there were many real estate companies that have M&A and transformed into consumer companies such as technology companies or liquor, because in this way, the revaluation of PE or PB alone can support the stock price.
But Dongfang Yuhong operated in the opposite direction and took the initiative to rub it down. This is not the only reason for its stock price**, but it is certainly one of the important reasons.
SummaryFinally, analysts of "Zhengjingshe" believe that the more important reasons why Dongfang Yuhong's stock price has been falling and falling are two:
First, affected by the major adjustment of real estate policies, it is reflected in the financial report that accounts receivable continue to increase, and ROE and gross profit continue to decline. Stock prices look at the future.
If the real estate industry can't stabilize, the company's heavy rain may not stop. The imprint of the real estate industry chain is too deep and it is difficult to transform. Only when the rainstorm of real estate stops and lands steadily, the rainbow of the Oriental rainbow will appear.
Second, to acquire land in Beijing, we give everyone such an expectation: Oriental Yuhong is going to transform into a real estate development business.
At present, the focus of the country's future planning is no longer on real estate, and the overall valuation of real estate development is difficult to rise.
However, on the other hand, although there are some problems, Dongfang Yuhong is still the "handle" of the building materials industry and belongs to the existence of the pyramid spire. In the building materials industry, where the industry concentration is very scattered, the market share can still account for 238%。
Dongfang Yuhong will either transform and reduce the proportion of real estate business as soon as possible, as stated in its financial report, or wait for the arrival of the real estate upswing.
It is worth noting that on December 29, the National Standing Committee once again discussed the issue of new urbanization, coupled with the first quarter of the new year, there is a tradition of speculating in infrastructure, and the stock price of Oriental Yuhong may have a new point of interest. [Produced by "Zhengjing Society"].
Editor-in-charge|Tang Weiping, editor|Du Hai Baijin Editorial |Proofreading by Ann Ann|Yes.
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