Written by丨Guo Xiaozhuoer
Produced by丨First Element Network
With the recovery of the hydrogen energy industry, countries are actively deploying the hydrogen energy industry to promote energy transition and reduce carbon emissions, which has also led to the expansion of the electrolyzer market.
Up to now, nearly 10 domestic electrolyzer manufacturers and multinational manufacturers have opened up the international market and accelerated the overseas market layout of hydrogen production equipment by cooperating in the construction of factories, starting the commercialization of hydrogen production by water electrolysis, and establishing overseas companies.
At a time when countries have introduced favorable policies, it is a good time to expand the market and promote the development of the hydrogen energy industry.
However, recently, the hydrogen subsidy policy launched by the European Union in October last year has added a bit of turmoil to the overseas expansion of Chinese electrolyzer companies.
Recently, with the start of the EU green hydrogen auction, there is a growing number of calls for EU green hydrogen subsidies to be paid only to European electrolyzer manufacturers, not to competitors from China.
An auction decided only by **, which could be disastrous for European electrolyzer manufacturers.
After all, the same problem arose 10 years ago from China, when European subsidies for solar PV inadvertently financed a boom in China's solar manufacturing industry, leading to the eventual collapse of Europe's once-leading PV industry.
Long wind and waves
In 2023, the global green hydrogen market will continue to grow explosively, and the performance of electrolyzer manufacturers will improve significantly.
Hydrogen Pro, an alkaline electrolyzer manufacturer, has broken the predicament of general losses of hydrogen energy terminal manufacturers and achieved profitability for the first time in the first half of this year.
At present, the global electrolyzer capacity is in a stage of rapid growth, and China and Europe play a very clever role in this.
According to IEA statistics, the total global electrolyzer production capacity in 2021 will be 80GW year, of which the production capacity in Europe and China is 35 and 29GW, accounting for 44% and 36% respectively.
In 2023 and 2025, the total global electrolyzer production capacity will reach 215 and 45In 1GW of year, Europe and China together account for 85% and 68% of the world's electrolyzer capacityFrom 2021 to 2025, the compound growth rate of the total global electrolyzer capacity will reach 541%。
China has not been affected by the late start, and the development speed of electrolyzers has taken off, from less than 10% of the world's electrolysis hydrogen production capacity in 2020 to 30% in 2022.
It is estimated that by the end of 2023, the installed capacity of electrolyzers in China is expected to reach 12GW, which is 50% of the world's total capacity.
At present, many companies such as Perry Hydrogen Energy, Sunshine Hydrogen Energy, Saikesaisi, Chunhua Hydrogen Energy, and Changchun Green Energy have launched products with a hydrogen production capacity of more than 200nm h in a single tankOverall, we are moving towards the 300nm H and above specifications.
Up to now, dozens of domestic companies, including CSSC Perry (formerly 718 Institute), Cockrell Competition, LONGi Green Energy and Sungrow, have entered the electrolyzer production and manufacturing.
Since the beginning of this year, electrolyzer manufacturers, including Cockrell and LONGi, have expanded overseas, and overseas markets are becoming a new development place for domestic electrolyzer manufacturers, and the domestic electrolyzer market has expanded in an all-round way.
Threat?Chance!
It is reported that the first round of hydrogen auctions of the European Hydrogen Bank, which was officially launched on November 23, has a special budget of 800 million euros (about 6.2 billion yuan).
Under the terms of the auction, green hydrogen producers bid at a fixed premium for every 1kg of green hydrogen produced, and the winning project receives a subsidy. As the current cost of green hydrogen production is still higher than that of non-green hydrogen, the premium subsidy aims to bridge the gap between what is produced** and what consumers are currently willing to pay**.
Successful bidders in green hydrogen auctions will receive up to a fixed subsidy from the EU45 euros kilogram (about 35 yuan kilograms) for ten years. Bids that meet the scope criteria and meet other eligibility requirements will be ranked from lowest to highest, and will receive subsidy support until the budget is exhausted.
It is this that has caused dissatisfaction among European manufacturers, who generally believe that it is unfair to subsidize the hidden costs and efficiency of electrolysers in China.
Previously, on April 18, 2023, the European Parliament's Committee on Environment, Public Health and Food Safety (ENVI) formally adopted the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) agreement, expanding the scope of the industry to cover hydrogen.
On March 16, 2023, the European Commission established the "European Hydrogen Bank", which will invest 3 billion euros (about 29.).US$700 million) to support the local hydrogen market and industrial sector.
According to the green hydrogen plan formulated by the European Union, the European market will become one of the important export destinations for Chinese electrolyzer manufacturers in the future.
Ha Kon Volldal, CEO of Norwegian electrolyzer manufacturer NEL, said at the same panel discussion entitled "Scaling up electrolyzer manufacturing" that he was "taught to support free competition and I knew that Europe wanted to be the world's best champion".
But he said it would be difficult to compete fairly with China.
For various reasons, we can't reach the same low cost as in China, otherwise we could have produced cheaper electrolyzers [in Europe]," Volldal explains.
This is not just the labor part of assembling the electrolyzer. This involves labor along the entire value chain – from the time you buy raw materials to the time you manufacture the modules and components for your electrolyzer. ”
Cheap Chinese hydrogen electrolyzers may become popular globally in the period 2025-2030. "Cheap labor, cheap ** financing. Etcetera. It's not fair!I don't think it's fair to open up the European market to European companies when they don't have access to the Chinese market. ”
He continued: "That's why I, even from a fundamental point of view, I'm against ** barriers, however, I have to agree with ......I think we need some protection. ”
Volldal then called for the upcoming EU green hydrogen auction not to be 100% based on ** factors.
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates, China's electrolyzer is a quarter of the equipment manufactured in Europe and the United StatesThis is a huge threat to foreign manufacturers facing a series of social problems such as high project costs and unstable ** chains, but it is an opportunity for domestic electrolyzer companies.
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