Author: Wu Yanrui
On December 29, the last trading day of 2023, the three major indexes all closed in the red.
The Shanghai Composite Index is the first of 3 for the whole year7%, closing below 3000 points;GEM refers to the whole year**1941%, the largest decline;The Shanghai 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index have been negative for 3 consecutive yearsThe BSE 50 Index rose sharply in the fourth quarter, and the whole year was **1492%。2023 is undoubtedly a big year for the theme of the A** field, from ChatGPT and CPO at the beginning of the year, to Huawei's industrial chain in the middle of the year, and then to the "Dragon Generation", "Beijing Stock Exchange" and "Mahjong Concept" at the end of the year, the majority of investors have witnessed the birth of new concepts in an endless stream. From the perspective of gains, AI-related sectors such as AIGC, CPO, computing power and other themes have risen in the first place. In terms of aspects, the Beijing Stock Exchange **Kaihua Materials for the whole year**57297% won the "stock king" in 2023, and Liante Technology and Shenglong shares rose separately throughout the year.
Two or three. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 2116 trillion yuan, down 5 percent year-on-year48%, the total turnover decreased for the third consecutive year. In terms of northbound funds, although the outflow began to continue in September, it was still in a net state for the whole year, with a cumulative net of 43.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.3 billion yuan, and increased its position in A-shares for 10 consecutive years since the opening of the Mainland-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
Event recap
This year, it has experienced a series of major events that have a profound impact on the capital market, such as the formal implementation of the comprehensive registration system for A-shares, the "four arrows" proposed at the blockbuster meeting, the "four arrows" of policies such as the reduction of stamp duty, the increase in the holdings of the four major banks by Huijin, the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds by the Ministry of Finance, the inauguration of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, the launch of the dual-counter trading model of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the release of the "19 Articles of Deep Reform" of the Beijing Stock Exchange, and the implementation of the reform of the public offering rate.
At the same time, ChatGPT's "popularity", the sharp rise of the Beijing Stock Exchange, quantitative trading, a new high in the number of delistings, a 3,000-point "tug-of-war", a phased tightening of the IPO rhythm, a wave of repurchase and increased holdings, strengthened supervision, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, the market value of Jindi shares and Pinduoduo surpassed Alibaba, Zhejiang Guoxiang, the death of Charlie Munger, and the fine of Binance have also aroused heated discussions among investors.
Institutional Interpretation:
Wanhe** believes that from the perspective of historical experience, during the recovery period, the recovery period + overheating period, Wind All A usually has a large increase, and the main reason for the emergence of Wind All A in 2023 is not only the slow economic recovery (the economic recovery from October 2012 to December 2013 is also weak, but Wind All A still has a good performance);The lack of funds to enter the market caused by the sharp decline in the share of new issuances such as public offerings**, coupled with the continuous tightening of overseas liquidity, led to the outflow of northbound funds (from August 2023 to December 2023, the net outflow of northbound funds was about 200 billion yuan), and the combined effect of multiple unfavorable factors led to the downward trend of A-shares in 2023. Looking forward to 2024, under the current historically low valuation of the A** market, on the one hand, with the continuous economic recovery, A-share earnings are entering an upward cycle, investor confidence is expected to gradually recover, and the scale of new funds entering the market is expected to continue to increaseOn the other hand, the Fed's interest rate hike policy is expected to pivot around mid-2024, at which point northbound funds may resume their previous inflow trend. The superposition of multiple positive factors will inject impetus into the bottoming and rebound of A-shares in 2024.
Does the A** field have the conditions for style conversion in 2024?Galaxy ** believes that the large and small cap style is more related to the capital side, in the stock game stage, the small cap is relatively dominant, and in the incremental capital acceleration stage, the Shanghai Composite Index is more likely to be dominant. It is predicted that small-cap stocks will be relatively dominant in 2024, but in the second half of the year, the U.S. monetary policy will usher in an inflection point, the net outflow of foreign capital is expected to narrow, and the possibility of local dominance of Shanghai index stocks will gradually increase. In an upcycle, growth is more likely to prevail;In the economic downturn, value stocks are more defensive, and the overall style prevails. When the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrows, the valuation of growth stocks is more sensitive to the level of interest rates at the denominator end. At the same time, when the scissor gap between M1 and M2 improves, and the market risk appetite is high, the probability of growth dominance is relatively high. On the whole, in the first half of 2024, the growth value style will be relatively balanced, but with the shift of overseas monetary policy, the possibility of growth stocks will gradually increase in the second half of the year.
In terms of opportunities, Huaan** believes that the main line of growth technology leads the whole year, and the consumer category is expected to prevail after the economy stabilizes. Before the economy has not improved significantly, the growth style is dominant as a whole, and electronics, communications and other industries are preferred. With the stabilization of real estate, service consumption has risen significantly, and the pace of economic recovery has been further consolidated, and the consumption style is expected to gradually prevail.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, and you do so at your own risk).