2023 is coming to an end, the cliché winter storage is coming, the market has experienced the ups and downs of the previous 2 years, this year's winter storage, whether it is a steel mill or a businessman, I believe it will be more rational. In order to have a more comprehensive understanding of the willingness of business and trade for winter storage of profiles in 2024, Mysteel has conducted a survey on 200+ profile merchants covering 7 major regions across the country, and the details are as follows:
Research Period:2023.12.19 to 202312.22
Number of Survey Samples:
Sample Coverage Area:North China, South China, East China, Central China, Northwest China, Southwest China, Northeast China.
The core points are as follows:
1. Compared with 2022, the business mentality in 2023 will be more cautious. Nearly 6 percent of the business believes that the current ** is high, the current entry risk is large, and it is still in the wait-and-see stage. In addition, the recovery of the real estate and infrastructure industry this year is less than expected, and the weak demand performance has also become the main factor affecting the winter storage of market merchants.
2. Due to the obvious fluctuation of the finished steel products with the billet, we took the Tangshan billet factory 10 days before the Spring Festival this year as the measurement standard for research. According to the statistics of the Ganglian database, 202212.22 Tangshan billet factory ** for 3730 yuan ton, by the end of last year stimulus policies and psychological expectations to improve, 10 days before the Spring Festival billet price locked to 3820 yuan ton. The current ex-factory ** of Tangshan billet is 3680 yuan ton (2023.).12.22), but most people believe that this year's billet price lock will be in the range of 3510 yuan ton and 3600 yuan tons, which is completely opposite to last year's bullish mentality, that is to say, there is still a certain decline in the heart, and the current ** has not yet reached the winter storage in the heart of the business.
3. At present, the overall enthusiasm of the best merchants in winter storage this year is not high, and the main reason why it is difficult to sell in winter storage is that we cannot see the recovery of terminal demand. Especially in the first half of 24 years, even if the demand heats up, it may only rebound slightly, once the demand can't keep up or start late, the spot of the first business winter storage will be difficult to sell, and the profit is even more out of reach. In other words, if this year's winter storage meets psychological expectations, then the first business may be able to sell the winter storage when it sees the profit margin in the future.
The detailed survey data is as follows: