In the capital market, it is easy to short Apple, it is not easy to short Apple, even if there is a wave of downward trend in U.S. technology stocks this year, but under the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the decline of head technology stocks like Apple may be very limited, unless the U.S. stock market really has the trend of fundamental collapse in 2008, but the probability of this black swan event is not impossible, but it is also extremely low. It's easy to short apples, it's not easy to short apples!
At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, in addition to the competition of various brands of Android at the price of 2000 yuan to 3000 yuan, for the 2024 "Spring Festival file", it is the traditional technology **iphone quiz, this time it is the turn of the iphone16 series, compared with the previous generation, the biggest change in appearance is that the pro series is larger, and both models have increased by 02 inches, the other is the default processor upgrade and lens upgrade, continue to squeeze toothpaste, but judging that Apple is not good, it is too selfish, even if Apple's stock price did not perform well at the beginning of the year, its 2With a market capitalization of $8 trillion, it's still the same space technology company, not even one of them.
First of all, from the product side, although the Huawei Mate 60 series and Xiaomi 13 UTRLA will perform well in the high-end mobile phone market in 2023, Apple still occupies an absolute leading position in the true high-end market above the price of 6000 yuan, according to Counterpoint Research's latest report on the 2023 high-end mobile phone market, Apple's market share has dropped from 75% in 2022 to 71% in 2023 But from another point of view, what does it mean to have a market share of more than seventy percent?As long as Apple itself does not make mistakes, it may be difficult for competitors to really turn over before the visible iPhone 20 comes out.
Of course, in the Chinese market, Huawei's second rise is an X variable, but from the current situation of Mate 60 so far, the so-called sniping Apple, more is the imagination of some people, and from the perspective of the product focus of Huawei terminals, the probability has gradually shifted to smart car products, Xiaomi in the first car Su7After the listing, most of the resources will be invested in the automotive field, obviously, Huawei Xiaomi's focus is on the "people, cars, and the whole ecology" , and Apple's congenital iOS mobile phone ecological advantages still have a crushing advantage.
What's more, many domestic technology observers ignore the big gold mine of Apple's software ecology, especially Apple's next year or two will be likely to enter the game field, so that Mac, iPad and iPhone Pro products have strong gaming capabilities, considering the boom of game handhelds in 2023, Apple to make the screen of the iPhone Pro series bigger, not for the so-called heat dissipation, but to give gamers a larger screen, so that users can play on three screens (computer, tablets, mobile phones) can seamlessly play triple-A masterpieces, which is the last piece of the puzzle that Cook put on Apple's ecosystem before retiring.
Since the domestic home game console market is still in a pioneering state, the general science and technology ** It also focuses on mobile games, and the home game market in the overseas market of hundreds of billions of dollars is also in a state of ignorance, but with Apple's ecological ability to integrate software and hardware, coupled with the energy consumption ratio advantage of its chips, when more and more 3A masterpieces can be natively transplanted to the Apple platform, that is Apple's real new growth point, and the Apple tax based on the game market can also largely offset the decline in hardware revenue, and don't forget, Nvidia, which had unlimited scenery last year, is a company that serves gamers with its main business graphics card.
From the perspective of the capital market, judging from the performance of Apple's stock price in the first week of 2024, Apple doesn't seem to be good, but this is also an illusion, because Apple's stock price will rise by more than 50% in 20235 trillion US dollars, the highest market value exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, figuratively speaking, 10 years ago Apple could only buy BAT, two years ago Apple could buy all the top 10 companies in Chinese concept stocks, and now Apple can buy all Chinese concept stocks and the remainder, after a year of 50% skyrocketing ** and short sound, this is the most normal.
If you are familiar with the technology stocks in the United States, you should take a look at Duan Yongping's evaluation of Apple, simply put, Apple's status in the United States is equal to Moutai's status in A-shares, with Buffett's moat concept to understand, this is a company with a huge moat, as long as Apple does not take the initiative to make mistakes, it is difficult for competitors to have a chance.
Therefore, in the capital market, it is easy to short Apple, it is not easy to short Apple, even if there is a wave of downward trend in U.S. technology stocks this year, but under the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the decline of head technology stocks like Apple may be very limited, unless U.S. stocks really have the trend of fundamental collapse in 2008, but the probability of this black swan event is not nothing, but it is also extremely low.
Of course, observing Apple's future trend, there is still a good indicator, that is, Buffett's actions, if Buffett continues to hold a large ** Apple holdings in the next year, thereby collapsing US technology stocks as a whole, then investors should be careful, after all, this real stock god does not earn the last copper plate, then it is Apple's real crisis, will this scene happen in 2024?Only time will tell.