According to data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in September this year, the shipments of the domestic mobile phone market increased by nearly 60%. Beijing Youth Daily reporter found that, compared with previous data, this is the first time that mobile phone shipments in the same period have bottomed out after five consecutive years, so in the context of the replacement cycle being continuously extended to 30 months, will the domestic mobile phone market usher in a "warming"? Young people love to change their phones again? Is it about to usher in a new wave of "replacement waves"?
The five-year downward trend of mobile phone shipments has reached an inflection point
According to data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in September 2023, the domestic mobile phone market shipped 3,32770,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 590%, of which, 5G mobile phones 287170,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 901%, accounting for 863%。The latest data shows that in October, the domestic mobile phone market shipped 291620,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 197%。Although there was a slight decrease from the previous month, the overall trend was still upward.
According to the previous shipment report for the same period, the cumulative annual shipments of the domestic mobile phone market from 2018 to 2022 were respectively year-on-year. 9%、-22.6%, although there are signs of increasing in 2021, the overall trend is declining year by year.
Among them, the positive trend of domestic brand data is more obvious. In September 2023, the shipment volume of domestic brands was 249460,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 361%, accounting for 75% of mobile phone shipments in the same period; The year-on-year increase in October was 72%, accounting for 61 percent of mobile phone shipments in the same period8%。
Judging from the data released by various manufacturers, this trend is also confirmed. According to BCI data, in November this year, Xiaomi closely followed Apple in the number of new phone activations in China's mobile phone market, temporarily ranking first among domestic brands, with 524 activations in the month30,000 units; On December 8, at the Shenzhen Global Investment Conference, Wan Biao, vice chairman of Honor Terminal, revealed that in the first three quarters of this year, Honor's overseas mobile phone shipments increased by more than 300% year-on-year, and it is expected to achieve 17 billion yuan of exports this year. During the "Double 11" period, data from the ZTE & Nubia Double 11 report showed that the sales of JD.com, Tmall, Douyin, and ZTE** were % and 180% year-on-year respectively.
In fact, the trend of "growth" continued with the new mobile phone releases in the fourth quarter. On December 14th, Realme's new Realme GT5 Pro went on sale, and the first sale broke the first-sale record of all new products in 2023 within 5 minutes of the first sale, exceeding the total sales of Realme GT2 Pro in the first three months. The sales volume of Meizu 21 on the first day of sale reached 202% of that of Meizu 20 in the same period, and the sales of Meizu mobile phones increased by 632% year-on-year on the first day of sale. The first sales volume of the Honor 100 Pro was 500% year-on-year. "OnePlus 12 is 5 times the sales volume of OnePlus 11 in the same period. Li Jie, president of OnePlus China, excitedly shared the news after the OnePlus 12 pre-sale opened.
Young people favor 2500-4000 yuan mid-range machines
I wanted to buy a Huawei mobile phone, but there was no stock, Xiaomi can now be bought casually, and there are more high-end ones so I bought Xiaomi", a consumer told a reporter from Beiqing Daily, "Many mobile phones launched recently are particularly attractive, and my mobile phone has been used for three or four years, and I feel that it can be replaced."
Young people's requirements for functions are accelerating the demand for replacement, "A large number of users have reached the replacement cycle, including Huawei's old users. At present, the short ** is popular, the requirements for camera and storage are higher, and the mobile phone manufacturers have more new products, and the level of design and camera has been greatly improved, but the overall ** is far lower than the new iPhone, which accelerates the trend of changing phones", said Liu Huafang, founder of Mr. Technology.
In the survey, a reporter from Beiqing Daily found that most young people are still aiming at mid-range mobile phones in the 2500-4000 yuan range, including Xiaomi 12, vivo X90S, IQOO 10, OnePlus Ace Pro, Realme GT5 Pro, OPPO Find X6, Honor Magic 5 and other mobile phones are mentioned more, and the sales volume on Jingdong and other platforms are also high.
Liu Huafang told a reporter from Beiqing Daily, "The competition of mobile phone brands has intensified, and the terminal product power of about 3000 yuan is indeed very high, and it sells well in the market, so mobile phone manufacturers are building mid-range machines while making efforts to high-end."
In fact, whether it is a high-end machine or a mid-range machine, the ** of each has been lowered. said to Yan Yuelong, "Previously, all brands were making efforts to high-end, and they are still fighting, but the price has been reduced compared to before." ”
Why are young people willing to change planes again?
So why are young people willing to switch phones recently? "Mobile phone manufacturers have made great breakthroughs in product iteration during the innovation period," said Yan Yuelong, a well-known business commentator. A reporter from Beiqing Daily found that the folding screen is an important point for many young people when changing their phones. Some consumers said that some of the new mobile phones are more powerful, "I have coveted folding screen mobile phones for a long time, they were too expensive before, and now I finally bought a folding screen mobile phone from vivo for more than 5,000 yuan."
The DSCC report clearly pointed out that in the third quarter of this year, folding machine shipments increased by 215 month-on-month and 16 year-on-year to 7 million units, 1 higher than expected. Counterpoint's survey also shows that 64% of China's high-end smartphone users say they are willing to choose a foldable screen phone for their next purchase.
There are also many young people who say that the replacement of old machines is reasonable and can be used every year. Beijing Youth Daily to14pro max for exchange in the autumn **15pro max as an example for testing,The initial purchase price was 9899 yuan,Repurchase cashback converted,The new machine is only 3789 yuan,It can be seen that the new machine is indeed relatively more cost-effective。 If you exchange for the high-end series P60 Pro series launched by Huawei, the initial purchase price is still 9899 yuan, and the repurchase cash back is converted, and the new machine is only 1865 yuan. "Enjoy more of the latest features, more cutting-edge technology. The signal is better and only needs a little more than a thousand to change to the most ** mobile phone, why not? ”
The mobile phone market will usher in a full recovery next year?
In the context of global economic recovery, economic recovery in the post-epidemic era will require a process, and there will be an inflection point in the fourth quarter of this year and next year," said Yan Yuelong.
However, Fu Liang, an independent telecom analyst, believes that ** is still a key factor affecting the next mobile phone sales. "The first strength of the manufacturers are stronger than last year, starting from September, the new mobile phone listing increased compared with the previous year, the increase in low-priced mobile phones, the domestic mobile phone market in the fourth quarter of this year is definitely better than the same period last year. At present, it is difficult to determine the trend of next year, the reason for the obvious increase in market sales, it is likely to depend on the richness of models below 3500 yuan and the horizontal and vertical screen folding screen mobile phones** What price can be explored. ”
According to a report released by IDC, "China's smartphone market shipments will increase year-on-year for the first time since 2021 in 2024". The recovery of the post-epidemic economic environment has led to an improvement in the overall income of residents, and the momentum of consumption has increased significantly. The recovery of use cases such as leisure and entertainment, smart mobility, etc., has also increased consumer demand for smartphones. At the same time, the growth of consumer demand for large storage portfolios has also promoted the beginning of a new round of replacement cycles. The intensification of brand competition in the domestic smartphone market has prompted manufacturers to launch more and more competitive products to attract consumers to buy. IDC expects that China's smartphone market shipments will reach 28.7 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 36%, shipments will remain stable in the next few years.
Among them, it is expected that the shipment volume of China's folding screen mobile phone market will be close to 10 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 532%。With the decline in the cost of major spare parts such as hinges and screens, the sales of folding screen mobile phones** are expected to continue to decline, of which horizontal folding products are expected to drop to RMB 4,000 to 5,000**, while more vertical folding products will enter the RMB 3,000 to 4,000** range. In addition, the market for used smartphones (including refurbished phones) continues to expand. Especially for second-hand flagship products, you can use the best of mid-range products to get the experience of using flagship products, and will become the most suitable "replacement product" for mid-range new machines. IDC predicts that the market size of used smartphones (including refurbished phones) will exceed 70 million units in 2024.
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Wen Jing, reporter of Beijing Youth Daily, and Guo Jingyuan, a practical Xi.
Edited by Fan Hongwei.