Recently, many countries around the world have followed the Fed in raising interest rates, but the People's Bank of China has been cutting interest rates. The Fed has raised interest rates more than 10 times since March last year, resulting in a $5 interest on U.S. Treasury bonds5%。Despite the recent pause in interest rate hikes, the Fed has not announced the end of the rate hike cycle. The main reason is that global commodities*** caused the domestic CPI in the United States to exceed 7% at its peak, and has now fallen to 37%。
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is also aimed at suppressing China's 45 billion yuan property market, through the appreciation of the US dollar and the depreciation of the RMB, prompting domestic and foreign investors to sell *** assets in exchange for US dollar assets to enter the US market in order to obtain more risk-free returns. The U.S. move is aimed at betting heavily on China's property market, similar to what happened to Japan in the '80s. However, the US move may not succeed, and there are also great risks. Malaysia has taken a number of measures to encourage home purchases to avoid a hard landing in the property market.
There are various indications that the Federal Reserve has almost no role in raising interest rates to suppress the bubble in China's property market. First of all, the current policy of China's property market is to loosen rather than tighten. All localities have relaxed the purchase and sale restrictions on the property market. It also raised the upper limit of CPF loansBanks have also lowered mortgage interest rates to less than 4%, and the down payment ratio has also been reduced to 2% from the previous 3%. In addition, first-tier cities have also announced that "housing is not mortgaged" to support the need to buy a house.
In such a situation, there is a high probability that housing prices will be "stable and falling" in the future, and there will be no big ups and downs. Secondly, China implements a strict control policy on the import and export of foreign exchange, and if you want to sell your domestic real estate and then exchange RMB for US dollar assets, it may not be so easy. According to our country's regulations, ordinary residents can only exchange 50,000 US dollars a year, and the extra money cannot be exchanged at all. Third, the Fed's continuous interest rate hikes will also bring relatively big trouble to itself.
According to the data, the scale of the Federal Reserve's debt has exceeded 33 trillion, and the annual interest alone will exceed more than 1 trillion. If the Fed continues to raise interest rates, this will increase the pressure on its debt service and make it a possible default. At the same time, the Fed's successive interest rate hikes will increase the financing costs of its domestic companies and increase the risks of financial institutions. Therefore, the Fed's interest rate hike is a double-edged sword, although it may puncture the asset bubbles of some emerging economies.
But it will also bring a lot of uncertainty to the recovery of the domestic economy, and may even trigger a sovereign debt crisis and a financial crisis. Therefore, the Fed's interest rate hike has little impact on China's property market, and policy adjustments determine the future trend of the property market.