[Introduction].Entering mid-December, in terms of domestic agricultural products, the trend of pigs and grain markets has been ups and downs, among them, grain prices have "changed face", corn and wheat have shown a weak and stable situation, and in the pig market, pig prices are "high", however, ** is obviously blocked, market sentiment is differentiated, and bearish sentiment has become stronger!So, what's happening in the market?Today is December 12th, and after the price adjustment, corn, wheat, and hog ** are roughly as follows!
First, the cold wave is coming, can corn take advantage of the situation?
At present, the domestic corn market presents a situation of low purchase and sales, affected by the cold wave and rain and snow cooling weather, the mentality of grassroots farmers to sell grain has weakened, the difficulty of corn circulation has increased, and the performance of shrinkage has appeared!However, due to the lack of demand follow-up, the level of feed enterprises to replace inventory is at a high level, and deep processing is mainly based on inventory consumption, and the mentality of raising prices and replenishing warehouses is general, and the corn market is showing a weak and stable situation
In the northeast region, due to the continuous rise in temperature, the quality of grain at the grassroots level has deteriorated, the mentality of farmers to sell grain has become stronger, and the difficulty of corn storage has decreased
Among them, in the Heijiliao area, COFCO Biochemical Longjiang, Longjiang Fufeng, Zhalantun Fufeng, Liaoning Yihai Kerry, Inner Mongolia Yipin, Fujin Xiangyu and Xintianlong Industry, corn procurement and listing ** down 05 1 cent, Heijiliao area, mainstream tide grain and dry grain corn listed ** in 0865~1.255 yuan catty!
In the North China market, affected by the rain and snow cooling weather in this range, the purchase and sale of corn at the grassroots level has almost stagnated, the circulation of corn is difficult, the tide grain in the Northeast is not smooth, and the bullish mentality of local farmers is higherHowever, due to the downturn in the breeding industry, the mentality of feed entry and storage is not high, and the deep processing is mainly wait-and-see, and the increase in corn is limited
Among them, in the Shandong market, the deep processing to the factory level is less than 500 cars, the amount of enterprises is small, Shandong, Tai'an Xiangrui, Dezhou Fuyang, Feicheng Fukuan, Zaozhuang Hengren and Zou Cheng Rice Neng, some enterprises in Shandong raised by 05~1.5 points, mainstream corn spot **1291~1.372 yuan jin!
Personally, I believe that in the short term, corn spot or will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, lack of sustained support, especially, previously, the difficulty of grassroots tide grain storage in many places in Northeast China has increased, corn mildew has increased, and farmers' realizable sentiment is strong, and in terms of demand follow-up, the market wait-and-see mentality is higher, and the enthusiasm for centralized library construction is general, but after entering the second half of the year, the enthusiasm for market purchase and sales may become stronger, or there is an expectation of a narrow range!
Second, wheat **sideways**!
According to official sources, the national grain output will be bumper again in 2023, and the annual grain output will be 13,908200 million catties, 177 months from the previous month600 million catties, an increase of 13%, with an output of more than 1 for 9 consecutive yearsAbout 3 trillion catties!Among them, in the corn and wheat markets, corn production increased by 42% to 5776800 million catties, an increase of 232800 million catties, wheat, the output is 2731800 million catties, down 22700 million catties, a decrease of 08%！
Recently, in terms of domestic wheat, the trend of wheat has shown a significant trend, and some companies have fallen below 145 yuan catty, by the grain ** business price reluctance, ** slightly rebounded, however, due to the beginning of this month, the temperature in the north and south of the country is unusually warm, winter wheat producing areas, the mainstream milling enterprises downstream centralized stocking enthusiasm is not high, flour storage difficulty increases, flour enterprises have a certain price reduction operation, which also limits the sentiment of enterprises to raise prices to replenish the warehouse, wheat ** to weak and stable ** main!
At present, the wheat market remains low, by the rain and snow cooling weather and the grain business reluctance to sell stronger, wheat circulation is less, however, flour consumption has not been significantly good, the downstream stocking demand is not good, enterprises are mainly based on inventory consumption, the purchase and sale of double reduction, domestic wheat ** stable, among them, in Shandong, Hebei, Henan and other places, the mainstream milling enterprises listed ** stable, in Xuzhou Huasheng flour, Wuyang Jinshahe, Suiping Keming starch and Jinan Jinshahe, wheat prices rose 05 1 point, in Linyi Wudeli price 05 points, of which, Shandong wheat ** in 146~1.52 yuan catty!
Personally, I believe that in the short term, due to poor market demand and less volume, the spot wheat market continues to be weak and stable, but with the impact of this round of cold wave weather, the temperature has dropped sharply, and the downstream market stocking demand may gradually improve
Third, the pig ** narrow range of continuous rise!
In the hog market, on December 12, the price of foreign three-yuan pigs rose to 1408 yuan kg, ** up 01 yuan, the market showed a continuous upward trend, however, the first range narrowed, the northern region, the pig purchase and sales sentiment was cautious, the market bullish mentality fell slightly, in some parts of the northeast, slaughtering enterprises have the phenomenon of **!
The pig price **, mainly supported by sentiment, on the one hand, the previous pig price fell sharply, the average price of live pigs bottomed out 1356 yuan kg, the mentality of carrying the price at the breeding end has increased, and the sentiment of resisting the loss of selling pigs has become strongerOn the other hand, affected by the cold wave weather, the market's pessimistic attitude towards pork consumption has weakened, and the sentiment of looking forward to the rise has become stronger
However, from a rational point of view, at present, in the north and south of the country, pork consumption is relatively sluggish, in the northern region, there is still time from the annual pig consumption, the market is mainly based on family consumption, and by the recent increase in pig diseases in many places, the residents' substitution consumption mentality is strong, and the increase in pork consumption is limited, in particular, the level of fat consumption is low!In the southern market, the cooling in many places has not yet appeared, the demand for pork consumption is not good, and it is difficult to cash in the centralized pickling in the south
Therefore, the lack of substantial benefits in the stage market, pork consumption is still in the "quiet period", from the market feedback, the pig price is mainly concentrated in the standard pig, the big pig is poor, the standard fertilizer price spread is further narrowed, which also reflects the current big fat consumption has not ushered in the peak season, pig price support is insufficient!
In particular, recently, the risk of disease in many pig farms in the north is higher, the breeding end of the fence price mentality is weak, the northeast ** pig farm price recognition increases, although, the Middle East is affected by rain and snow weather, the grassroots pig slaughter is weak, but, with the rain after the sunny day, the grassroots purchase and sales accelerated, the group pig enterprises slaughter increment, the market in the short term there is still downward pressure, pig prices have not yet reached the stage of the "inflection point"!The market outlook is concerned about the good cash of pickling in the southern market and the inflection point of domestic fat pigs, rationally, in the middle and late of this month, pig prices are mainly fluctuating higher, but the space may not be as good as expected!
Grain prices have "changed face", and pig prices are rising!After the price adjustment on December 12, how about the price of corn and wheat, and pigsWhat do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet!