Recently, the Philippines has entered into a new dispute with China over the South China Sea, which has led to polarization and even infighting. Some people believe that the Philippines is dependent on China for economic development, and that excessive cooperation with the United States and continuing to provoke China will cause trouble to itself, so Marcos Jr. has been collectively "expelled". Others, however, argue that the Philippines needs U.S. security guarantees to increase its influence and voice in order to pursue regional interests. However, now the Philippine political, business and academic elites agree that Marcos Jr. has left the Philippines' diplomatic independence behind and is overly dependent on the United States, which will only hurt Philippine interests. Although there are maritime territorial disputes and disagreements between China and the Philippines, this is not the whole story of China-Philippines relations. If Sino-Philippine relations deteriorate across the board, the costs to the Philippines will far outweigh the benefits. As a result, Filipino elites have exerted pressure on Marcos Jr. to resolve the South China Sea dispute with China through political means. This collective "expulsion" action shows the concern of all sectors of Filipino society that the Philippines is overly dependent on the United States and provoking China. They believe that the risk of the situation in the South China Sea spiraling out of control is rapidly increasing. Philippine Senator Amy Marcos has said that the Philippines will not allow it to be used as a "staging place and transit point" for any military action, but a recent statement by Philippine Ambassador to the United States Romualdez shows that the Philippines "is a flashpoint" on the South China Sea issue, and "if anything happens in our region, it will be like the beginning of another war, a world war." These remarks suggest that the Philippines seeks to strengthen its military alliance with the United States while worrying about getting involved in a great power contest. However, no matter what the Philippines says, the United States has long made it clear that the military base in the northern part of the Philippines is a key component of the United States' strategic layout in the Taiwan Strait. The Philippine ambassador to the United States mentioned the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait issue as a very dangerous signal. From an objective point of view, during the Duterte era, the Philippines pursued a great power balance diplomacy and sought to balance interests between China and the United States. However, Marcos Jr.'s over-reliance on the United States has greatly narrowed the Philippines' room of trade-off. In addition, there are many leading factions in the Philippines, which have always adhered to the position of only the United States taking the lead on the issue of China, believing that the United States is the key to maintaining geopolitical security for the Philippines. In particular, in order to obtain more defense budget and more US military aid, the Philippine military often provokes China, and even sends ships to ram Chinese law enforcement vessels, in order to keep the South China Sea issue hot. These positions are in sharp opposition to the pragmatic and rational elite in the Philippines, triggering internal conflicts. However, Philippine Deputy Minister Domingo stressed in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that China is the most important economic and trade partner of the Philippines, and the relationship between the two countries is inseparable. He suggested that the Philippines should proceed from the perspective of the overall situation and treat bilateral relations rationally when handling Sino-Philippine relations. It can be seen that the Philippine policy toward China may be adjusted. In fact, China has long made it clear that Philippine waters are not part of China's territory, but the Philippines cannot infringe on China's rights and interests. China's position is that it will not give up China's territory and will not occupy a single Philippine territory. Therefore, the Philippines should act in a timely and cautious manner to avoid becoming a second Ukraine.
The Philippines' recent series of policy adjustments toward China have caused fierce controversy at home. In fact, the Philippines** has been looking for the best balance between its own security and geopolitical interests. Many Filipino elites believe that overdependence on the United States will cost the Philippines. There is a dispute between the Philippines and China over maritime rights and interests, but this does not mean that the relationship between the Philippines and China has completely deteriorated. If relations between the Philippines and China deteriorate, the Philippines will suffer even more. Although the United States has promised to provide some military assistance to the Philippines, the loss of economic cooperation with China will cost the Philippines even more. The Philippines also has maritime disputes with other neighboring countries, but because the Philippines' comprehensive national strength is relatively weak, especially in terms of naval and air forces, the Philippines is trying to enhance its own strength and voice by carrying out more military cooperation with the United States.
However, the Ukrainian crisis has become a lesson. As a small country that plays an important role in the region, getting involved in a military contest between major powers will not only bring security guarantees to the Philippines, but will also bring huge security risks, becoming a victim of great power competition. Filipino elites of all walks of life have put pressure on Marcos Jr.** to find a political solution to the South China Sea dispute. The collective resignation of Marcos Jr.** shows that all sectors of Filipino society are uneasy about over-reliance on the United States and provocation against China. They believe that the situation in the South China Sea is spiraling out of control and that action needs to be taken as soon as possible. Even Marcos Jr.'s sister, Philippine Senator Amy Marcos, has said that the Philippines should not be part of the conflict in the Taiwan Strait. She pointed out that the location of the recent new US military base in the Philippines clearly shows that this is the front line of the anticipated conflict in the Taiwan Strait. She also believes that the Philippines will not allow it to be used as a "staging and staging point" for any military operations. Philippine Ambassador to the United States Romualdez even mentioned that if anything happens in this region, it will be like the beginning of another war, a world war. These remarks suggest that the Philippines seeks to strengthen its military alliance with the United States while worrying about getting involved in a great power contest.
The Philippines' China policy has also been influenced by the domestic faction. The faction has always maintained that the United States is the key to the Philippines' geopolitical security. In particular, in order to obtain more defense budget and more US military aid, the Philippine military often provokes China, and even sends ships to ram Chinese law enforcement vessels, in order to keep the South China Sea issue hot. These positions are in sharp opposition to the pragmatic and rational elite in the Philippines, triggering internal conflicts.
However, Philippine Deputy Minister Domingo pointed out in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that China is the most important economic and trade partner of the Philippines, and the relationship between the two countries is inseparable. He said that the Philippines should proceed from the perspective of the overall situation and treat bilateral relations rationally when handling China-Philippines relations. It can be seen that the Philippines is trying to adjust its China policy and return to a more rational and pragmatic path.
China's position on the Philippines has always been that it does not occupy Philippine territory while safeguarding its own territory and rights and interests. The South China Sea issue of the Philippines is complex and involves many interests and issues, not only the territorial issue of the Philippines, but also the territorial issue of other neighboring countries. China has proposed to resolve the South China Sea dispute through dialogue and consultation, and will continue to maintain an attitude of dialogue and cooperation with the Philippines.
The Philippines should be aware that China's position on the South China Sea issue is to resolve disputes through dialogue and consultation with the Philippines and other relevant countries. China's position is that it will not give up China's territory and will not occupy a single Philippine territory. The Philippines should persist in resolving the South China Sea dispute through political means and refrain from taking drastic actions that could lead to further escalation.
At the same time, the Philippines should be cautious to avoid falling prey to a military contest between major powers. The Philippines needs to carefully consider its relationship with China and the United States and seek a more balanced and pragmatic policy toward China. The relationship between the Philippines and China should not be based solely on the South China Sea issue, but should expand the areas of cooperation between the two sides and enhance the opportunities for mutual trust and mutually beneficial cooperation. It is only on this basis that the Philippines can play a more active and constructive role in the region.