Against the backdrop of tensions in the South China Sea, the PLA will hold a new military Xi. According to information released by the China Maritime Safety Administration, from 8 a.m. on December 12 to 12 a.m. on December 15, live-fire training will be conducted in some waters of the Beibu Gulf, and no boats will be allowed to enter the area. The scale and duration of the exercises are quite rare, with China typically holding live-fire exercises in the South China Sea less frequently and for shorter periods of time. Therefore, it is rare for a live-fire military exercise to be conducted for three consecutive days. Recent actions in the Philippines may have been a trigger for the PLA to hold the exercise.
The Philippines has recently been more active in the South China Sea, especially on December 10 and 9, when Philippine maritime forces attacked China's territorial waters in the waters of Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal, respectively. The Chinese Coast Guard defended the two waters for two days in a row. During the clash off Second Thomas Shoal, a Philippine vessel deliberately rushed towards a Chinese vessel and unfortunately collided with a Chinese coast guard vessel. The Philippine move is clearly a provocation, and Marcos seems to have misunderstood China's restraint. In the face of the Philippines' constant provocations, China's restraint and defense alone may not be enough to deal with the situation. The Marcos administration, apparently instigated by external forces, has firmly continued to provoke China's position in the South China Sea.
Therefore, the PLA military exercise can be understood as an unspoken warning to the Philippines, reminding the Marcos administration not to be overly provocative, because the PLA is ready to defend China's territorial sovereignty at any time. Interestingly, as soon as the Chinese Maritime Administration announced the arrangement of PLA military exercises, the Philippines suffered losses, but not with the PLA. According to the Philippines**, on December 9, local time, a C212 transport plane belonging to the Philippine Air Force had an accident at the airport in Puerto Princesa, Palawan Province, and rushed directly out of the runway. Although the specific cause of the accident was not disclosed, the Philippine Air Force accident may have been influenced by psychological factors during this sensitive period.
Filipinos are well aware that there is a huge gap in strength between China and the Philippines, and the Philippines has no chance of winning a head-on conflict between China and the Philippines. The only hope for the Marcos administration at present is to rely on the support of external forces such as the United States, or even direct military intervention. However, this hope is almost unrealistic, and even Marcos himself believes that it cannot change the psychological pressure of the Philippine military personnel. For the Marcos authorities, the latest accident in the Philippine Air Force, while not causing serious damage, does not bode well. Whatever the specific cause of the accident, it is certain that the Philippine military is absolutely incapable of challenging the squadron. Ahead of the start of the PLA exercises, the Philippine military was already showing some signs of confusion.
If the PLA escalates its military exercises, the Philippine military will come under more pressure. In short, the PLA has designated areas for live-fire exercises to drop Xi, giving Marcos a clear warning signal that he will think twice about the South China Sea and avoid regretting the situation before he can get out of hand.