How should China plan for the U.S. s support for the Houthis to undermine trade between China and Eu

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-01-30

In the framework of globalization, the security of international shipping routes has always been a key factor in maintaining economic exchanges between countries. The security of global strategic waterways, especially the most dependent economies, is at stake. The recent outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has once again shifted the focus of international attention to the troubled Middle East. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has a long history, and the re-escalation of the conflict not only poses a threat to regional security, but also brings uncertainty to the world's maritime routes. Against this backdrop, the Houthis, an armed group active in Yemen, have openly declared their support for Hamas and have taken this opportunity to attempt to influence the security of the international arteries through military action.

Most of China's exports to Europe pass through these waters, so any threat to the security of the Suez Canal could have far-reaching implications for Central Europe**. In the current context of increasing global risks, the actions of the Houthis have exacerbated the urgency and complexity of "de-risking". : The Houthis claimed to have successfully attacked three cargo ships bound for Israel, including Maersk Gibraltar by Maersk Line. Although both Maersk and the U.S. Navy said that the cargo ship had not suffered substantial damage, Maersk took precautionary measures on the 15th, suspending all routes through the Red Sea and affecting the normal operation of at least nine of the company's Central Europe routes.

Given the nature of their armed groups, the actions of the Houthis not only carry a high degree of uncertainty, but also indicate a possible chain reaction, which in turn will lead to more shipping companies choosing to avoid shipping or suspend operations, which poses a serious challenge to the stability of the global ** chain. At the strategic level, the Houthis' actions have certain limitations, but their intent is clear – to expand their political and military influence by military means to influence the international community, and perhaps even to gain economic benefits through external pressure. Moreover, by expressing support for Hamas, the Houthis may be trying to forge a broader political coalition in the region and beyond. In this series of military and geopolitical events, we have seen the side of international vulnerability and how quickly regional political turmoil can turn into global challenges.

For China, this is not only a matter of safeguarding its own economic interests, but also a manifestation of its participation in global governance and its responsibility as a major country. China needs to work with international partners to strengthen intelligence sharing, security cooperation, and promote political solutions for regional stability. Through firm international cooperation, we hope to achieve long-term stability of maritime routes, resist the risks brought about by geopolitical turmoil, and jointly maintain a peaceful, stable and prosperous international community. In the current volatile international security environment, the security of strategic corridors is closely related to the world. Tensions in the Red Sea region, particularly in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key maritime communication node, pose a potential threat to global trade and energy delivery.

In this part of the sea, the Houthi control already poses a substantial threat to shipping routes. The Houthi actions are not only a direct challenge to Saudi Arabia, but also a security issue for the entire international community. The United States, as a global superpower, remains vigilant about instability in the region and actively assesses possible risks and countermeasures. Although direct military action has not yet taken place, U.S. experts and policymakers are already working on possible plans to ensure a swift response if necessary. At the global economic level, the instability of the Red Sea route will have a profound impact on maritime transport. Among them, the drought in the Panama Canal has further exacerbated the difficulties of maritime transport.

The United States sees China as its biggest competitor and is therefore particularly sensitive to changes in the Red Sea route. Under such circumstances, whether the United States is willing to see the instability of the Red Sea route have a negative impact on China, and even whether it will take the opportunity to "decouple" China's economy, is a question worth pondering. Against this geopolitical backdrop, China's establishment of a logistics support base in Djibouti shows the extension of its ocean-going naval power. The existence of this base is essential to ensure China's interests in the far seas and to maintain the security of sea lanes. In the context of the frequent occurrence of Somali pirates, the establishment of the base has played an important role in maintaining the safety of the shipping route and providing necessary logistical support for the Chinese Navy.

The choice faced by shipping companies is becoming increasingly difficult. On the one hand, outages mean direct losses and the risk of chain disruption;On the other hand, detours can significantly increase time and costs. This is undoubtedly a huge challenge for the world**. These decisions will not only affect short-term operating costs, but may also have an impact on the long-term stability of the global ** chain. China's response was crucial in this case. China's contacts with Europe are huge, and any instability in the Red Sea route could have a significant impact on its economy. The actions of international shipping giants such as Maersk show that the market is sensitive to this risk. Although the Chinese Navy's base in Djibouti is mainly responsible for logistics support, as the situation develops, the Chinese side may need to reassess its military deployment in the region.

At the same time, the EU's role and decision-making in the region has become complex. The inherent complexity of the EU's decision-making mechanisms as a multinational alliance makes it difficult to respond with the speed and intensity of its response compared to that of a single country. While reliance on the Red Sea route is crucial to the EU, its behavior in the international arena is often constrained by differences of opinion among member states and adherence to U.S. policy. In this process, the strategic competition and cooperation between China, the United States, and Europe have a profound impact on military operations and political decision-making in the Red Sea region. The uncertainty of the Red Sea route is not only a problem in the Middle East, but also a problem of global ** and security.

The international community should work together to find lasting solutions to regional conflicts through dialogue and cooperation, as well as through strengthening the role of multilateral institutions. At the same time, the rules of international law and the law of the sea should be advocated to protect the freedom and safety of sea lanes and jointly maintain the stability of the global shipping network. On this basis, mutual respect and strategic cooperation among major countries will be an important force for promoting world peace and development. This is a process that requires wisdom, patience and foresight, and it is also the responsibility and mission shared by all mankind. At such a moment, it will be our common choice and expectation to uphold an open mind and solve problems through dialogue and consultation. Before the current situation, it is important to understand the origins and motivations of the Houthis.

In 2014, the Houthis grew in strength, eventually capturing Yemen's capital, Sana'a, and forcing the then Abdrabb al-Mansour al-Hadi into exile. This move led to a sharp deterioration in the situation, triggering a multinational coalition led by Saudi Arabia to step in in on Hadi** and carry out military strikes against the Houthis. The relationship between the Houthis and Iran is key to understanding this conflict. Iran, as a Shiite regime, has long supported several Shiite forces to expand its influence in the Middle East. Its support for the Houthis, including financial support and strategic guidance, is an open secret. As a result, the Houthis are widely regarded as Iran's leading men in Yemen.

On the one hand, Iran hopes to weaken Saudi influence in the region through Houthi expansion, while exerting influence over Yemen and its neighbors through Houthi-controlled areas. On the other hand, a victory for the Houthis could give Iran the opportunity to directly or indirectly control Yemen's important strategic locations, strengthening its presence in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Moreover, by supporting the Houthis, Iran is able to demonstrate its power and influence to its regional adversaries. Against this backdrop, the Houthis' latest move, which seeks to expand its influence and enlist the support of more Islamic countries, especially for Hamas, is all the more important.

On the economic front, the Houthis manage and use resources by controlling certain areas, while seeking external support to alleviate economic hardship caused by the conflict. In terms of military security, the Houthis are committed to consolidating their military power against the offensive of the Yemen** Army and the multinational coalition, while seeking to improve their survivability in the face of instability. Iran's role plays a crucial part in these calculations. Iran's support is one of the key factors that have enabled the Houthis to sustain their activities. However, Iran's support may come in different forms and degrees. The most direct support is through military assistance, such as *** training or even direct military involvement.

Conversely, if Iran believes that full support for the Houthis could lead to overexposure or greater opposition from the international community, it may choose a more cautious and covert approach to support. In addition, Iran may adjust its support for the Houthis according to domestic and international circumstances. For example, Iran may reduce its support for the Houthis if it faces greater international pressure or needs to concentrate resources in other regional conflicts. Conversely, if Iran believes that supporting the Houthis will be effective in expanding its influence in the Middle East, it may increase its investment. For its part, the Houthis must balance its relationship with Iran while considering its own interests.

Therefore, the nature and trends of the relationship between the two sides can only be indirectly inferred by observing the public actions, statements and policy changes of the Houthis and Iran. However, through long-term observation and in-depth analysis, an understanding of the relationship between the Houthis and Iran can be gradually established. Over time, their patterns of interaction, their external statements, and the reactions of other countries and organizations in the region can provide clues to the outside world to assess this complex relationship. In the course of the interaction between the Houthis and Iran, we have not only witnessed the complex relationship and mutual influence between the two, but also seen a microcosm of sectarian political strife in the Middle East.

Against this backdrop, understanding the actions of the Houthis and Iran's influence is important for promoting peace and stability in the region. Through comprehensive analysis and in-depth understanding, the international community can better develop response strategies aimed at de-escalating conflicts, restoring peace, and ultimately achieving long-term stability in the region. Such an effort requires extensive international cooperation and a deep insight into regional dynamics, and solutions can only be found after understanding the interests and motivations of all the forces involved.

In the future, we must continue to focus on the interaction between the Houthis and Iran, and how this relationship is shaping the security landscape in Yemen and the Middle East. Whatever the outcome, this complex situation will continue to have far-reaching implications for international affairs. Therefore, maintaining and promoting peace and stability in the region is a shared responsibility and challenge not only for the people of Yemen, but also for the whole world.

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