Straight News: Mr. Chen, Israel** said that it was willing to reach a new interim truce agreement with Hamas in Gaza, what prompted Israel to change its position?
Special Commentator Chen Bing: The second ceasefire in Gaza is now on the horizon. According to the latest reports, the outlook is still relatively optimistic. Qatar, the main broker of the ceasefire in Gaza, has made progress in negotiations with the CIA and Israel's Mossad, with the message that the trilateral meeting is positive and that Israel is willing to negotiate with Hamas. Qatar is currently in contact with Hamas about the possibility of a new truce.
In other news, Hamas leader Haniyeh will hold talks with Egypt** to discuss a new ceasefire in Gaza. Israel** said yesterday that it was willing to reach a new interim truce with Hamas to ensure the release of more hostages. From this point of view, there is still hope for a second ceasefire in Gaza.
The question arises, why is it time to talk about a temporary ceasefire again?How did Israel figure it out?
First, the first temporary ceasefire, in which both Hamas and Israel released hostages and prisoners, as required by the agreement, shows that even a temporary ceasefire can alleviate the humanitarian crisis and build even a modicum of mutual trust between the two sides. However, at Israel's insistence, attacks on Gaza have resumed, triggering a new humanitarian catastrophe.
Second, the international community is putting increasing pressure on Israel to suspend its attacks on Gaza and to allow more humanitarian aid to enter Gaza. Not only is the United States adjusting its attitude toward Israel, criticizing Israel's bombing of Gaza as "indiscriminate," but France, Britain, and Germany, which previously supported the United States and Israel, have also recently called for a ceasefire and cannot continue to create a humanitarian catastrophe. The UN Security Council called for an end to the fighting in Gaza and a vote on a resolution. The International Red Cross even described the failure to stop the war in Gaza as a "moral failure" of the international community and called for the immediate signing of a new truce agreement. You know, the Red Cross is working on the ground in Gaza, and they have a big say.
Third, Israel has recently made some progress in the war in Gaza, especially the entry of Israeli troops into the so-called largest underground passage of Hamas, which can be regarded as a "victory result", so it is willing to make a new truce.
Fourth, if the war in Gaza continues, it is likely that the war will expand. The Houthi attacks on Israeli ships passing through the Red Sea have affected the international and Western economies, and the United States has had to intervene to organize a multinational task force to respond. If the fire in Gaza does not stop, then the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will expand into a war in the Middle East, and neither the United States nor Israel will be able to eat and walk around.
These four reasons are contributing to a renewed ceasefire in Gaza. Besides, it's Christmas and New Year's Day soon, and all parties involved in the war and rescue may have a little desire to take a breather. I suspect that this temporary ceasefire agreement is likely to be reached, and we will wait until after New Year's Day.
Straight News: Is the U.S. leading the Red Sea multinational task force a move to expand the war?Can Houthi attacks on Israeli ships be stopped?
Special Commentator Chen Bing: That's a good question. The U.S.-led multinational task force, known as Operation Protect Prosperity, is effectively an effort to expand the war, except that their goal is to fight the Houthis and secure their own economic interests.
The Houthi attack on Israeli ships in the Red Sea is aimed at stopping the war in Gaza and cutting off Israel's logistics, so the formation of a multinational task force is, strictly speaking, an expansion of the war. Countries participating in the new U.S. operation include the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, and Spain, each of which will send ships and other resources. The reason why so many countries are involved is that the Houthis attacked Israeli ships, but the ships of other countries are also unsafe, and four of the world's five largest container companies have suspended shipping operations in the Red Sea, which has caused a major shock to Western economies.
The preliminary calculation is that the Red Sea will be cut off, the cost of container companies will increase by 9%, Israeli goods will be 30% to 40%, international oil prices will be 1% to 2%, and inflation in Europe and the United States will be increased. So the United States organized a multinational task force to ensure the safety of shipping in the Red Sea. Europe and the United States are reluctant to expand the war. However, the missiles of the multinational task force cannot ensure precise strikes against the Houthis, and if they accidentally hit facilities in Yemen or other Middle Eastern countries, the expansion of the war cannot be ruled out.
We should also note that none of the countries of the Middle East, with the exception of Bahrain, participate in the United States Red Sea task force. None of the countries in the Red Sea region are willing to join, which shows that Biden's diplomatic ability is very limited, his mobilization power is not strong, and it shows that the countries of the Middle East are very, very dissatisfied with the inability of the United States to prevent the war in Gaza. Precisely because the U.S. Red Sea coalition does not have the support of littoral states, it becomes difficult to contain the Houthis. However, compared with the Houthis, the Red Sea coalition may have stronger equipment and combat capabilities, and it is possible to temporarily suppress the Houthi attacks. But as long as there is no permanent ceasefire in Gaza, the Houthis will not stop their guerrilla attacks on Israel and state-backed vessels, which is a headache for the United States, but there is no cure.
Author丨Chen Bing, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".