On December 29, 2023, the China Meteorological Administration held a press conference in January 2024 to summarize the weather in December 2023 and make an outlook for the weather in January 2024 and subsequent extensions.
According to the information of the press conference, in the early part of January 2024, there will be a period of high temperatures in most parts of China. However, with the re-activity of cold air in the later period, China still needs to pay attention to the impact of adverse weather, especially in the southern part of China during the Spring Festival, which needs to guard against the impact of rain and snow. In addition, the ongoing El Niño event is likely to decay rapidly in the first half of 2024 after a peak period.
In December 2023, the temperature in China fluctuated greatly, and the number of warnings issued reached the highest value in the same period in history.
Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center, said that as of December 28, 2023, China's weather in December 2023 will be characterized by temperatures close to the same period of the year and more precipitation. The national average temperature is -28, close to the same period of the year. Among them, the temperature in most of the central and eastern regions is lower than that of the same period in normal years, and the temperature in most western areas is close to the same period of normal year or higher.
Combing China's temperature data in December, Jia Xiaolong pointed out that China's temperature fluctuated greatly in December, and from December 2 to 13, the national average temperature was the warmest in the same period in historyFrom the 14th to the 24th, extreme cold weather was experiencedFrom the 25th, the temperature began to warm up across the country and entered a state of warmth. Overall, this change in temperature and cold is very drastic.
Jia Xiaolong said that the reason for such a sharp contrast is mainly that the Eurasian middle and high latitude circulation shows meridional characteristics, and the northwest airflow in front of the Osan high pressure ridge guides the strong cold air from Siberia to move eastward and southward, encountering an unusually strong high pressure in the northwest Pacific Ocean, forming a long-term standoff, and the main body of cold air controls the central and eastern parts of China and penetrates deep into South China. During this period, China has experienced a national strong cold air and a national cold wave process, and the temperature in most parts of the central and eastern regions is significantly lower than that of the same period in normal years. In the early part of December, the longitudinal direction of the Eurasian middle and high latitude circulation weakened, the high pressure ridge gradually controlled China, the cold air affecting China weakened significantly, and the temperature began to rise in most areas.
In order to remind the public to pay attention to weather changes, a total of early warning information was issued nationwide in December2870,000, an increase of 53 year-on-year1%, an increase of 331%。Warning information such as heavy snowfall, low temperature, road ice, cold wave, and frost increased year-on-year. 0%, and the above five types of early warning information are the highest values released in the same period of the previous year (2017-2022).
In January 2024, there may be four cold air processes in China, and most of South China will have more precipitation.
In the upcoming January 2024, will there be a strong cold air and even a cold wave process that will affect the whole country again in my country like in December 2023?
Jia Xiaolong introduced that it is expected that in the next ten days (December 30, 2023 to January 8, 2024), the cold air activities affecting China will be frequent, but the early force is not strong, and the temperature in most parts of the country is high, including the average temperature in Northwest China, North China, the central part of Northeast China and Guizhou, Hunan, Guangxi, Guangdong and other places is 2 3 high, and the northwest of Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin are more than 4 high. From January 6 to 8, a strong stream of cold air is expected to affect most parts of the country from north to south.
Looking forward to the whole of January, there are four main cold air processes affecting China, and the occurrence time and intensity are the early part of the first half (moderate), the late part of the first half (weak), the late middle (moderate), and the late part of the second half (weak).
In terms of temperature, it is expected that in January, the temperature in northeast Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, northern Liaoning, most of Guangxi, western Guangdong, southwestern Sichuan, western Yunnan, and southwestern Qinghai will be 0 lower than that of the same period in normal years5℃～1℃；The temperature in Xinjiang, western Inner Mongolia, northern Qinghai, central and northern Gansu, most of Ningxia, Shanghai, southern Jiangsu, southern Anhui, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, southeastern Hubei and eastern Hunan was 05 or above, of which the temperature in northern Xinjiang is higher 1 2;The temperature in most of the rest of the country is close to the same period of the year.
In terms of precipitation, it is expected that in January, the precipitation in northeast Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, most of Jilin, Shanghai, southern Anhui, Zhejiang, Fujian, southeastern Hubei, Jiangxi, most of Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, most of Guizhou, southwest Sichuan, Yunnan, most of **, and southwestern Qinghai will be more than the same period in normal years, of which most of Heilongjiang, most of Jiangxi, northwest Fujian, most of Hunan, northwestern Guangxi, northeast Guangxi, most of Yunnan, and ** south will be more than 2 5 percent. The precipitation in the rest of the country is close to the same period of the normal year to less, among which the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia, most of Gansu, northeast Qinghai, Ningxia, central and northern Shaanxi, and western Shanxi are less than 2 5 percent.
Jia Xiaolong introduced that combined with the forecast conclusion of the early stage of warming up and the later period of cold air and precipitation, it is expected that the cold and warm changes in the central and eastern parts of China will change greatly in January.
It is recommended that relevant departments prepare for wind and wind, cold and frost prevention and emergency plans for disaster prevention and mitigation in advance, especially in agricultural and pastoral areas, and do a good job in facility agriculture and animal husbandry to prevent snow disasters.
There is more precipitation in southeast China, southern central China, most of South China, and southern southwest China, and the temperature is low in some areas, so there is a risk of soil waterlogging and frost disasters caused by low temperature and rain. It is suggested that the southern agricultural areas should make preparations for field drainage and drainage to prevent soil damage and take preventive measures against frost disasters.
The precipitation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surroundings, the Fenwei Plain and other places are low, the temperature is close to normal, and the atmospheric diffusion conditions are weaker during the intermittent period of cold air activities, and there may be phased fog or haze weather, so it is recommended to take preventive measures in terms of human health, residents' lives and transportation.
The fire danger level of forest and grassland in eastern Sichuan, Guizhou, Chongqing and other places is relatively high, and it is recommended that relevant departments do a good job in forest and grassland fire prevention.
During the Spring Festival, the southern region will be protected from periodic rain and snow, and El Niño events are expected to decay rapidly.
Starting at the end of January 2024, the country will enter the annual Spring Festival travel period. Jia Xiaolong introduced that the National Climate Center will organize relevant departments to further analyze and judge the weather and climate trends and the impact of meteorological disasters during the Spring Festival transportation period.
According to the current analysis, during the Spring Festival transportation period (January 26 to March 5, 2024), the intensity of the east monsoon in Central Asia in China is generally close to the same period of the normal year to weak, and the temperature in most parts of China is close to the same period of the normal year as a whole, but the cold and warm fluctuations are more obvious. In terms of precipitation, the northern part of Northeast China, the northeast part of Inner Mongolia, most of East China, the southeastern part of East China, the southern part of South China, the southern part of Southwest China, and the northern part of Xinjiang received more snowfall than usual. It is suggested that Northeast China, North China and Xinjiang should be prepared to deal with the phased strong cooling and heavy snowfallThe southern region needs to be prepared for the impact of periodic rain and snow.
In addition to the preliminary analysis of the weather during the Spring Festival, Jia Xiaolong also introduced China's monitoring and ** of El Niño events. It is reported that the El Niño event will start in May 2023 and enter the peak period in November. The SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific is expected to fluctuate slightly near the peak in January 2024, and the period from November 2023 to January 2024 will be the peak period of this El Niño event, with a peak intensity of 15 2, it is a moderately strong east-type warm event. After that, the El Niño event will decay rapidly, possibly until March or April 2024, and then end in extinction.
Text reporter Liang Yitao.