GDP in 2023 may be less than $18 trillion, and may even be lower than last year.
There are still 2 days left, 2023 is over, can this year's economic growth rate achieve the target set at the beginning of the year?
The economic data for the first three quarters are already out. The growth rate in the first quarter was 45%, which is considered to be stable and stable, the epidemic has just been released, and the Spring Festival has been superimposed, and consumption has ushered in a big **, which has contributed a lot.
Growth of 63%, the growth rate looks good, but it was only 0The growth rate of 4% was pushed up by the low base effect. The two-year average growth rate is only 335%, which is very low. Growth fell to 4 in the third quarter9%, mainly due to the fact that consumption has stabilized, external demand continues to be weak, and there is no low base.
However, calculated down, in the first three quarters, my country achieved 5The growth rate of 2% is more than twice that of the United States, and it ranks second among the world's top 20 economies, second only to India.
So, what does Q4 hold?According to the "2024 Economic and Financial Outlook Report" released by the Bank of China Research Institute, China's economic growth is expected to reach 56%。
5.A growth rate of 6% should not be a problem, because the troika is all working. First of all, consumption showed a rapid recovery momentum, with a year-on-year increase of 7% in October6%, up to 10 in November1%, you must know that the zero growth in the first three quarters was only 68%。
Specific to large-scale consumption, the retail sales of automobiles in October increased by 11 year-on-year4%, and in November it increased by 147%。Mobile phone shipments increased by 19% year-on-year in October7%, up 127%, the data is good.
Looking at exports, imports and exports increased in November, and exports achieved 0The 5% increase, especially for the United States, ended a 14-month decline with a year-on-year increase of 96%。Exports are starting to pick up, and it is expected that the fourth quarter will no longer be a drag.
In addition, the growth rate in the same period last year was 29% is also a relatively low base, so it will push up the growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year.
If the growth rate in the fourth quarter can reach 56%, that growth will reach 53%, exceeding the 5% growth target set at the beginning of the year.
In 2022, China's GDP will be 12102 trillion yuan, according to 5With a growth rate of 3%, what will be the GDP in 2023?
Since the beginning of this year, China's CPI and PPI have shown negative growth in many months, and the ** of goods and services is not in**, but declining, which will make the nominal increase in GDP smaller, according to the data of the first three quarters, it is expected that GDP will reach 126 in 20237 trillion yuan.
Converted to dollars or less than $18 trillion, it was $17 last year96 trillion dollars, so it is possible to be lower than last year. The main reason is the depreciation of the RMB, which averaged 7 against the US dollar in the first three quarters of 20230148, a year-on-year depreciation of 582%, and the fourth quarter is expected to be similar.
Looking at the United States, GDP grew by 2 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters5%, and the total reached 20$28 trillion. Driven by many factors such as high prices and revised statistical rules, GDP is likely to reach 27 in 2023$4 trillion. In this way, in 2023, China's GDP may be equivalent to 657%, compared to nearly 70% last year, and the GDP gap between China and the United States has widened.
For this year's economic growth, many people don't seem to feel it, saying that business is still difficult to do, companies are still laying off employees, the youth unemployment rate has not been low, and online car-hailing drivers are saturated.
According to official data, in the first three quarters, final consumption expenditure contributed 83 percent to economic growth2%, driving GDP growth by 44 percentage points. Some people may say, aren't they all saving money and not spending?
Let's take a look at the two charts released by Hurun Report, one is about the consumption ** index. In 2023, the total level of consumption of China's high-net-worth individuals will be 54%, while the national household consumption level is -03%, which shows that the rich are still spending like crazy.
As can be seen from another chart, yacht and aircraft consumption** increased by 14% year-on-year8%, accessories and skincare products increased by 9 year-on-year4%, high-end tobacco, alcohol and tea increased by 8 year-on-year1%, only property growth is -02%。
Yesterday, Xiaomi released its first car SU7, although it was not announced, but the industry believes that it should be more than 300,000 yuan. If you look closely, China's new energy vehicles are selling more and more expensive, and the price of the M9 is 46 a few days agoFrom 980,000 yuan. They dare to sell so expensive, which shows that the consumption potential of the mid-to-high-end market is huge.
In fact, it is a very realistic situation, even in good economic times, ordinary people do not have much extra consumption except for basic daily expenses. As Cao Dewang said, of China's 1.4 billion people, only 200 million people really have spending power.
2023 is coming to an end, will 2024 get better?The Bank of China Research Institute** will grow China's GDP by about 5% in 2024, while the Standard & Poor's, one of the three major international rating agencies, will be 46%, and the international investment bank Goldman Sachs** is 48%。After reading these ** data, do you think it will be better?