**: CBN.
South Asia is the most populous and densely populated region in the world, and in the past the outside world had the impression that the economy of South Asia was poor and inadequate. Today, however, many economists are optimistic about the prospects of the South Asian economy, and even believe that it will become another engine of world economic development.
Hamidrashid, Director of Global Economic Monitoring at the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, recently said: "South Asia will be the driving force for future growth (of the world economy). "South Asia's economy has sprung up, and India's contribution is not small.
According to the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024 report (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released by the United Nations recently, India's economy is expected to grow by 6.20242%, maintaining its position as the world's fastest-growing large economy.
According to the report, India's strong domestic demand, rapid growth in manufacturing and services, and increased investment have effectively offset the current downward pressure on the global economic malaise. The report also ** world economic growth will increase from 2. % in 20237% to 2. in 20244%。
Liu Zongyi, secretary-general of the China-South Asia Cooperation Research Center of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, told the first financial reporter that in the context of increasing investment, India has indeed made progress in infrastructure after the epidemic, especially Modi is facing election pressure this year, which has further promoted its investment to increase its investment and stimulate economic growth.
Indian Economy. Although compared to the previous time, the United Nations lowered the ** of the Indian economy by 05%, a slight slowdown from 2023, but with 6With a growth rate of 2%, India can still rank first among major economies.
This ** of the United Nations is broadly in line with the ** of other agencies, after the Bank of Asia ** India's economy would grow by 6 for the 2023 fiscal year 2024 (i.e. April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024).7%, compared to 6 for both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank3%。
For an economy with a large population like India, the development of infrastructure construction and related supporting mechanisms is the only way to go. Roads, bridges and airports under construction can be found almost everywhere in India today. It has been commented that Mumbai, known as India's financial capital, has been transformed into a huge construction site.
In August 2021, when India was still plagued by the new crown epidemic, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India would start with a scale of 100 trillion rupees (about 8.).61 trillion yuan).
The World Bank has previously praised the approach, saying it has increased infrastructure spending during the pandemic when the country's private sector needed bailouts. Since then, India** has stepped up its investment in infrastructure, renovating poor roads, ports and power facilities that once hindered business investment.
In March 2023, Modi also urged infrastructure development, saying that infrastructure development is the driving force of India's economy and that "there is a need to increase the pace and pace to achieve the goal of making India a developed country by 2047." ”
With the improvement of urban infrastructure, the level of social governance in India is also improving. Zhang Jiadong, director of the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, recently wrote: "From the streets, New Delhi's urban governance has improved. Although the smog is still severe, the unique smell that used to be smelled as soon as you leave the airport has largely disappeared. This shows that the public health situation in New Delhi has improved somewhat. ”
On January 3, India's Minister of Commerce and Industry (Piyushgoyal) said that India would become a $4 trillion economy before the arrival of the first day, "in 2 2In five years' time, India will be a $5 trillion economy."
India** is expected to take place between April and May this year. While Goyal's pre-election remarks were inevitably a sign of electoral momentum, they were not unfounded, with India's gross domestic product (GDP) expected to reach 4 in 2026, according to the IMF's World Economic Outlook released in October 202395 trillion dollars.
Supported by optimism, India** achieved an eight-year winning streak in 2023, with India** exceeding the $4 trillion mark in terms of market capitalization, about tripling its total market capitalization from its March 2020 low.
On January 4, Nomura analysts released a report titled "Outlook for India 2024", Nomura said that optimistic expectations for India's economic growth prospects and corporate earnings, the expansion of domestic market participants and the continued inflow of foreign capital, the central bank's interest rate cut, and the possibility of Modi's re-election have contributed to investors' expectations for India's "continuation".
Nomura expects India** to return 12% in 2024. However, it is worth noting that the influx of capital into India** has coincided with a decline in long-term investment from overseas. Small and medium-sized investors have always been an important part of India**.
The outside world is optimistic about India's property market while also being optimistic about India's property market. DLF Group, India's largest property developer, said on January 8 that it had sold all 1,113 high-end apartments in just three days before construction began on a real estate project near New Delhi. The DLF revealed that a quarter of the apartments were purchased by non-Indian residents.
South Asia is booming. The United Nations said in the report that interest rates continue to be high, conflicts have escalated, international weakness, and climate disasters have brought huge challenges to global growth. Global economic growth is expected to grow from 27% to 2. in 20244%, down from 30%。
South Asia's economic growth will remain solid in 2024, reaching 52%, just below the estimated 53%, in addition to the strong expansion of the Indian economy, many other South Asian countries have also performed well.
India's neighbor, Bangladesh, has also made great strides in recent years. Bangladesh's GDP growth in fiscal 2024 is expected to reach 6., albeit at a slower pace, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released on December 19, 20232%, second only to India among economies with a population of more than 100 million.
Since the 90s of the 20th century, Bangladesh has reached a consensus between the two parties in China to attract foreign investment to develop the economy, and according to its own national conditions, it has found a garment industry suitable for its own development, so as to guide the industry to strive for development.
Today, Bangladesh is the world's second-largest garment exporter after China, with more than 70 percent of exports to the United States and Europe, and millions of people employed in the country, most of whom are women.
Schmittrow Chatterjee, an economist at Pennsylvania State University in the United States, and Arvind Subramanian, a former chief economic adviser to India, said in a related article that Bangladesh's economy is doing well because it is following the path of previous successful Asian economies, where the share of exports of labor-intensive products is in line with the share of its working-age population in poor countries.
At the same time, Chinese companies have also created a large number of local employment opportunities in infrastructure construction. Bangladesh is the first country in South Asia to sign a memorandum of understanding with China on Belt and Road cooperation. According to the People's Road on January 5, up to now, Chinese enterprises have built 12 highways and 21 bridges in Bangladesh, and a number of transportation infrastructure projects are under construction or about to be put into operation, successfully driving hundreds of thousands of local people to work.
In 2020, Bangladesh overtook India in GDP per capita, causing anxiety among Indians, who in the past had targeted other major economies for development, but did not want to be overtaken by neighboring Bangladesh, which had not been seen before. According to the latest data from the IMF, Bangladesh's per capita GDP has surpassed India's by about $200.
At the same time, Pakistan's economy, which is in deep trouble, has also improved. According to the Asian Development Bank, Pakistan's GDP growth rate in fiscal year 2023 (July 2023 to June 2024) will increase from 03% moderately rebounded to 19%, showing a rebound momentum.
The report expects South Asian inflation to increase from an estimated 13 in 20234% slowed to 9 in 20242%。For example, the United Nations report said that South Asia is "highly vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, and the return of the El Niño weather phenomenon will also pose a significant risk to the economic outlook".
The South Asian subcontinent, which faces the Indian Ocean on the roof of the world, is facing the effects of climate change, such as melting glaciers in Nepal and rising sea levels near India and Bangladesh, forcing more and more people to flee their homes and become "climate migrants" in search of new livelihoods.