In the global electric vehicle sales market, Tesla has always been the hegemon, but with the rise of Chinese car companies such as BYD, the global sales king may change hands, and foreign media such as Bloomberg and Business Insider Network have **, BYD tram sales surpass Tesla "probably in this quarter".
Bloomberg said in an article on December 27 that in the fourth quarter of 2023, BYD's electric car sales are expected to become the world's first, "which will be a symbolic turning point in the electric vehicle market, and will further confirm China's growing influence in the global automotive industry." The article quoted investment institutions as saying that although Tesla is still ahead of BYD in indicators such as revenue, profit and market capitalization, these gaps will be significantly narrowed next year.
Business Insider used data to prove this upcoming sales crown handover: in the third quarter of this year, BYD's electric car sales were only 3,000 fewer than Tesla's, and when the fourth-quarter data is released in early January next year, BYD is likely to surpass Tesla.
On December 22, 2023 local time, Fukuoka Motor Show in Japan, BYD Auto Exhibition Area. (Source: Visual China).
Bloomberg, in its account of this different competitive landscape, turned up Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk's mockery of BYD's electric car in 2011.
Back then, when Musk was interviewed by Bloomberg, the host mentioned that BYD was a competitor of Tesla, and Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett's investment company, held 10% of BYD's shares at the time. In May, Musk responded: "That was many years ago. Nowadays their cars are very competitive. ”
According to the article, BYD is a rare automaker that produces batteries independently, which is its unique advantage. In addition, BYD is also trying to make up for the "shortcomings" of automobile exterior design. In 2016, German Wolfgang Egger was invited to serve as the global design director of BYD, and he has served as the head of design for car brands such as Audi.
Today, the automaker, run by Wang Chuanfu, is ready to become the new global EV boss, writes Bloomberg. The article quoted BYD's slogan when it launched the ATTO 3 in Ireland in April, "Meet the biggest car brand you've never heard of," saying the slogan may soon have to change as BYD is poised to become the new global leader in the battery electric vehicle market.
By then, most likely in the current quarter, this will be a symbolic turning point for the EV market and further confirmation of China's growing influence in the global automotive industry. ”
Business Insider mentioned that in 2022, China was the global leader in electric vehicles, accounting for 64% of the world's total production and 59% of global sales. In the third quarter of this year, BYD sold only 3,000 fewer electric vehicles than Tesla, and analysts believe that BYD is likely to surpass Tesla when the fourth-quarter data is released in early January.
Seth Goldstein, an analyst at Morningstar, said in an interview with Business Insider: "In addition to providing entry-level luxury cars, BYD is also trying to serve a wider market with more affordable models. One of their strategies to expand sales is to offer cars to the places where they have the most customers. Judging by the results, the results are very good. ”
The German news wire also captured the catch-up trend of Chinese companies, saying that Tesla's strongest catch-up is not the established car companies in Germany, Japan or the United States, but the Chinese car company BYD, which is still little known in Germany. BYD, which only started producing electric vehicles in 2008, is challenging Tesla's global dominance in the field of electric vehicles.
Chinese automakers such as BYD and SAIC are making significant progress in the auto industry, where established automakers such as Toyota, Volkswagen and GM still dominate, Bloomberg mentioned. After overtaking the United States, South Korea and Germany in the past few years, China is now competing with Japan for global leadership in passenger car exports. As of October, 1.3 million of the 3.6 million vehicles exported from Chinese mainland were electric.
According to a report released by a German research institute on November 23, China's auto exports from January to September have surpassed those of Japan and Germany, and the export figures are growing rapidly, and China is expected to be the largest auto exporter in 2023.
Bridget McCarthy, head of China at Snow Bull Capital, which invests in both BYD and Tesla, said: "The competitive landscape in the automotive industry has changed. It's no longer about the size and history of the car companies, it's about how quickly they innovate and iterate. BYD has been preparing for a long time to achieve this faster than people think, and now the rest of the industry must catch up. ”
According to Bloomberg, the handover of the electric vehicle sales champion also reflects the change in the competition pattern between Musk and Wang Chuanfu. Compared with Tesla's ** grid, BYD has firmly taken the offensive, and its high-sales models are more competitive than Tesla in terms of **.
However, Bloomberg said that BYD wants to replicate the success of the domestic market in overseas markets, which is somewhat tricky, which is related to the barriers set by the United States and Europe. Europe appears poised to follow the U.S. in imposing higher tariffs on Chinese cars to protect local manufacturing jobs.
In September this year, EU leaders announced that they would launch a countervailing investigation into Chinese electric vehicles, and in October, the European Commission launched a countervailing investigation into Chinese electric vehicles without an application from the EU industry. China is highly concerned about and strongly dissatisfied with this. China believes that the EU's move is a naked protectionist act to protect its own industry in the name of "fair competition", which will seriously disrupt and distort the global automotive industry chain, including the EU.
Bloomberg notes that while the West has been trying to explain the huge growth of electric vehicles in China with so-called subsidies, industry researchers believe that the bigger boost is the level of competition in the Chinese market. Paul Gong, head of UBS China's automotive research division, said: "They must be committed to innovation, they must work to find the real needs of consumers, and they must optimize costs to ensure that their electric vehicles have a place in this competitive market." ”
UBS Group's China Automotive Research Group believes that by 2030, Chinese automakers could account for one-third of the global auto market in terms of total sales.
Bloomberg added that Tesla is still ahead of BYD in key metrics such as revenue, profit and market capitalization. But analysts at Bernstein, an American investment research firm, expect some of these gaps to close significantly next year. They expect Tesla's full-year sales in 2024 to reach $114 billion, while BYD's sales will reach $112 billion.
Analysts**, BYD will launch the third generation of electric vehicles next year, showing more technologies including autonomous driving. The article also mentions that although BYD's competitors in China's auto industry have shrunk from more than 500 to about 100, new competitors are emerging.
Yuqian Ding, head of China auto business at HSBC Qianhai** Co., Ltd., believes that staying ahead of the curve requires a mindset that is different from climbing to the top: "You have to redefine yourself – you have to find a way to beat yourself." ”
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