Special Invitation |Darkiron
Recently, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng AH H-share Index both rewrote new lows this year, falling to the level of December 11 last year. Whether Hong Kong stocks can take the lead in jumping out of the bear market quagmire may be the key to the stabilization of A-shares.
The "active cattle" policy has been somewhat effective in maintaining stability
According to StockQ Global** Rankings, as of December 6, Shanghai's B-shares, Thailand, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and the State-owned Enterprises Index fell the most this year, respectively. 72% and 1553%, all in the new low area of the year. The Shanghai Composite Index, which is relatively resistant, fell 398%, the "active cattle" policy to maintain stability has been slightly effective.
As of the 7th, from the perspective of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index closed in the negative for 15 years in its 33-year history, and the smallest decline was 397%, which is close to this year. The Shanghai Composite Index shrank by about 13 percent from its peak during the year2%, which is currently a weak market pattern.
On the 6th, Li Daxiao, chief economist of Yingda**, said when talking about the 53rd 3000-point defense war, "There are three things to encourage at the moment, buy a house, have a baby, and buy **." In terms of sector performance, in the past three months, the A-share share prices of Ping An, China Merchants Bank and Vanke, the leaders of the financial real estate sector, have continued to be under pressure, and the blue chips in the past seem to have become the trigger for smashing the market.
As of the 7th**, the price-to-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen H-share sectors were 858 times and 052 times is already a valuation depression, and it is still 50% higher than the average premium of H shares with the same rights and shares. Valuations of H-shares are extremely low, with loss effects and risk aversion at extreme levels.
Lottery, **trading sentiment** two days
Recently, two wealth news have been hot searches: one is to spend 100,000 to buy lottery tickets and win 200 million;Second, A-shares fell below 3,000 points. However, according to the calculation of education blogger Li Yongle, assuming that it costs two yuan a day to bet Fucai Happy 8, the time required to win the jackpot of 5 million is 24410 years. ** and buy lottery tickets to make a fortune is a small probability event, why is the hot and cold so uneven?
Data show,1 October,A total of about 475.9 billion yuan of lottery tickets were sold nationwide,An increase of 53% year-on-year,Average monthly sales of 475.900 million yuan. In terms of the public offering in October and November, 32 shares were issued in October, raising less than 8.5 billion shares. In November, 43 new stock bases were established, raising a total of nearly 16.9 billion yuan. The above data is reminiscent,Whether investors who speculated in A-shares have turned to the lottery market.
On the 5th, Ben Powell, chief Asia-Pacific investment strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, suggested adding Japan and India next year. This is the speculative style of the winner to bet on the strong and strong. Compared to the trough in 2009, the Nikkei 225 and the Bombay Sensitive 30 Index each **37 times and 764 times. Currently, MSCI India is trading at around 32 times earnings, which is well above its valuation of 572 times the H-share sector.
According to preliminary calculations, from 1991 to 2022, India's GDP and monetary volume were 10 respectively6 times and 93 times, since 1991 the sensitive 30 has risen 65 times. There are two major measures in India that are different from A-shares: one is the implementation of the preferential trading model, which is T+0 (i.e., buy and sell) and T+3 respectively, and has the right of first refusalThe second is the delisting system with large inflows and large exits, which has given birth to a blue-chip premium effect. From 1996 to 2018, a total of 2,869 companies were delisted in India, forcing institutions to stay away from underperforming stocks.
**Blue chips are approaching, but leverage should be used with caution
From the perspective of the year**, the Hang Seng Index and the CSI 300 are both in the history of the four consecutive yin pattern, the two fell by 17 respectively during the year4% and 124%, the index trend has clearly deviated from the status quo that China's economic growth is the world's largest engine. The author believes that the current policy support or even a bailout is imminent.
For most people, the time for blue chips is approaching, but leverage should be used sparingly. Because the decline in global economic growth next year is a high probability event, will the bubble in the U.S. stock market rest or even burst?It's hard to say for sure. Investment master Gann has experienced the big failures of many financial experts in "45 Years on Wall Street", and there are two things in common: one is not to stop losses;Second, the leverage is too large.
The weak market seems simple, but in fact, it is extremely difficult to judge the bottom. General Motors founder William Durant used 10 times leverage**GM**, as a result, the stock quickly fell by about two-thirds of its market value from April to November 1920, and finally transferred equity to pay off debts, losing $90 million in a short period of time, the largest loss of wealth in the history of Wall Street. At that time, in 1920, the GDP of the United States was about $88.4 billion (about 46% of the world), and $90 million accounted for more than 1% of the total GDP. In that year, the Dow Jones **329%, the year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI has dropped from more than 20% in the middle of the year to 26%, and inflation in capital goods and consumer goods shrank sharply at the same time.
Will a similar situation be repeated in the United States and around the world next year?It is also difficult to draw conclusions at this time. The author believes that in the context of uncertainty, investors should avoid big ones. Because when the concept of speculation becomes a trend, there are many people who fish in troubled waters. As shown in the announcement on the evening of the 6th, a number of executives of listed companies "overturned" due to suspected internal transactions or ** transactions. This means that the supervision of listed companies has begun to land. In contrast, the Beijing Stock Exchange is a market maker system, which is different from the bidding model of the main board, and it is a new market, and the immediate regulatory risk is much lower than that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. This may be an alternative benefit for the current Beijing Stock Exchange.
(This article was published in the December 9 issue of Market Weekly.) The article only represents the author's personal views and does not represent the position of this journal. The ** mentioned in the article is for example only and does not make a recommendation for buying and selling. ）