Recently, in the face of the slowdown in domestic economic growth and the recession of the real estate industry, some experts, scholars and well-known figures have attributed the reason to the expansion of "ultra-left" ideology. Is there any truth to such a statement?
To understand this, we must first understand what "ultra-leftism" is and what its main characteristics are. In a general context, "ultra-left" means that public ownership will completely occupy the whole of the social economy, and private ownership will be completely eliminated. Private property is not fully respected. On the other hand, in our society today, it is obvious that there is no such problem as "ultra-leftism." As for the occasional whining of the "leftist" voices among the people, there are still a few of them, but they are not ultra-left in nature, and they will not have the slightest impact on economic development. The existence of such voices is actually reasonable and necessary, and it would be strange if in a socialist country it was not even allowed to mention the "communist ideal" or even call for the protection of the rights and interests of the poor at the bottom.
Since the influence of the "ultra-leftist" trend of thought is not the cause of the economic recession, what is the real cause of the domestic economic recession?
First of all, it is because of the influence of the international environment. Due to the impact of the epidemic, war and other factors in recent years, the economic growth of various countries is generally poor. Under such circumstances, China's export orders and the foreign investment that can be attracted will inevitably decrease.
Secondly, because of the excessive dependence on the real estate industry, the scale of domestic capital investment in this field is too large, and the supply of real estate is too large, which has far exceeded the scale of effective domestic housing demand.
What is the effective demand scale?To put it bluntly, it is the number of people who want to buy a house and can afford it. Obviously, in today's economic downturn and the number of people declining year by year, such effective demand is becoming less and less. However, real estate developers do not see this, and feel that houses in China are always not for sale, and they can be speculated for a thousand years ......and 10,000 years
Under this unrealistic expectation, they are becoming more and more emboldened, on the one hand, relying on borrowing and financing to desperately expand their scale, and on the other hand, relying on rising housing prices to recover costs and make money. Until one day, they found that not only did most people have incomes that could no longer afford to buy a house, but even the population began to decline. In the face of this unfavorable situation, domestic and foreign financial institutions that issued loans to real estate developers began to collect debts, and the houses in the hands of real estate developers could not be sold, so there was a situation where the capital chain ......of real estate developers was broken and real estate projects were unfinished
Although this situation is very similar to the situation of "milk cannot be sold, it is thrown away for nothing" in the United States, but it is much more complicated to solve. Because "milk" is a real thing, you can just throw it away if you can't sell it. However, under the pre-sale model, many unfinished properties have actually been sold, and the property rights already belong to the buyersApparently not. Can a house that has been sold and a house that has not been sold be blown up in the same neighborhood or even in a building?Apparently not. Moreover, even if the real estate developer blows up the building, they must repay the money they borrowed from the financial institutionIt can be seen that in today's real estate market, a "pentagram bond" relationship has been formed between banks, home buyers, real estate developers, construction companies, and building materials developers. In this case, the real estate agent wants to blow up the house that cannot be sold, which is a fool's dream. Banks, home buyers, construction companies, building material dealers, and real estate developers will not be allowed to do this.
In short, the root cause of the economic recession is not the expansion of the "ultra-left" trend of thought as some experts say, but the fact that our economic policy freedom is too high, and we have not used macroeconomic control tools such as loan approval to impose necessary restrictions on the scale and speed of expansion of real estate developers, resulting in them being driven by the profit-seeking nature of capital and committing the same mistakes as the American capitalists in the twenties and thirties of the last century. The outbreak of this internal crisis in real estate, coupled with the deterioration of the international economic environment, eventually led to the current domestic economic recession.