Since the beginning of the 21st century, the United States has repeatedly tried to shift its strategic focus to China, but it has been repeatedly distracted by other events. During the George W. Bush era, he said for the first time that he would turn his attention to East Asia, but the East Asia strategy was undermined by the fact that the United States invested major military resources in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq after 9/11. The continuation of these two so-called wars on terror during the Obama years has resulted in negligible military resources in East Asia. TrumpAttempts to free up military resources by waging a war and lobbying Middle Eastern countries to establish diplomatic relations with Israel, but the election failure became a stumbling block for him. After taking office, Biden has faced internal problems such as the pandemic, debt, and inflation, as well as the shrinking of his naval forces, and he has been unable to strengthen his strategic deployment against China. At the same time, the war in Ukraine andIsraeli-Palestinian conflictIt has involved a large amount of US resources, further making the US strategy of pivoting to East Asia a vain position. It can be seen that AmericanGrand StrategybeIsraeli-Palestinian conflictbroke again, and China became the "big winner" for the time being.
In this information-first age, where global news is almost all-encompassing, the strategic planning of the United States has naturally become a hot topic. However,Israeli-Palestinian conflictThe outbreak not only changed the strategic direction of the United States, but also provided an opportunity for China. Although it may sound like China's "luck", in fact, all this is not accidental, but a historical necessity. As a country with the world's second-largest economy and powerful military power, China is no longer a "soft persimmon" that the United States can manipulate at will. In the past, China's army was relatively strong, but its naval and air forces were relatively weak.
Therefore, the United States simply needs to deploy a large army force on the Korean Peninsula and inThe first island chainStrengthening the navy and air force can effectively curb China's influence. However, with the rapid growth of China's naval and air forces, the number of capital ships exceededU.S. military, the massive use of stealth fighters and high-performance drones, and the threat of anti-ship ballistic missiles, the United States will not turn to East Asia overnight. United States**Over the past 20 years, military spending has been increasing and plans to use it in front of China. In addition, the United States has actively enlisted allies such as Japan, Canada, and Australia to invest troops in East Asia, but these countries have insignificant military power compared to the Chinese People's Liberation Army. As a result, the United States is actually faced with the problem of insufficient troops.
According to on a global scaleU.S. militaryof the deployment,U.S. militaryThe question of insufficient strength has already arisen. The issue in Ukraine has not yet been resolvedIsraeli-Palestinian conflictand again erupted in the caseU.S. militaryThe gap in strength is even more obvious. AlthoughUnited States**They have always wanted to confront China, but now they have to face the reality of the war situation, Israel is already in the midst of an actual war, the situation is even more urgent, and the East Asian problem can only be put aside. If the war in Ukraine ends and a Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire is achieved, there is no doubt that the United States will turn to East Asia against China. Of course, there's nothing scary about that. China has no intention of engaging in a global war with the United States, and if the conflict between China and the United States escalates, it will inevitably be confined to China's periphery. In the conditions of conventional warfare,U.S. militaryThe basic conditions for victory over the PLA in East Asia have been lost. Therefore, it makes no sense whether the United States turns to East Asia to put pressure on China.
InIsraeli-Palestinian conflictBreak the American againGrand StrategyAgainst the backdrop, China is known as the "big winner". However, it can be seen that this is not a coincidence, but a historical necessity. China, as a country with strong economic and military strength, is no longer a "soft persimmon" that can be swayed at will. The U.S. strategy to pivot to East Asia is not just about moving two aircraft carriers, but about increasing the number of troops in the region. However, due to the war in Ukraine andIsraeli-Palestinian conflictand other factorsU.S. militaryThe problem of insufficient troops is even more obvious. AlthoughUnited States**They have always been anxious to confront China, but the reality of the situation requires them to think rationally. If the Ukraine issue is resolved and a Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire is achieved, the possibility of the United States turning to East Asia to confront China is inevitable. However, in the conditions of conventional warfare,U.S. militaryThe basic conditions for defeating the Chinese People's Liberation Army in East Asia have been lost. Therefore, it makes no sense whether the United States turns to East Asia to put pressure on China. Under this trend, China has become the "big winner".
Israeli-Palestinian conflictBreak the American againGrand StrategyThe view that China has become a "big winner" has a certain degree of rationality from both a strategic and a historical point of view. The United States has been trying to turn to East Asia to deal with China, but various factors have prevented them from achieving their desired goals over the years. Israeli-Palestinian conflictThe outbreak undoubtedly gave China a respite from the all-out oppression of the United States. But this is not an accident, but is the result of China's own significant increase in power and the strategic mistakes of the United States.
Whether it is in the army, navy or air force, China has demonstrated great strength. This makes it more difficult, if not realistic, for the United States to turn to East Asia to confront China. In the conditions of war,U.S. militaryThe basic conditions for victory over the Chinese PLA in East Asia have been lost. So, thoughIsraeli-Palestinian conflictbroke the strategic planning of the United States, but for China, this happened to be an opportunity. But we must also realize that China is not a country that wants to engage in a global war with the United States, but more wants to maintain its security and interests at its own doorstep. Therefore, whether the United States turns to an East Asian strategy or not does not have much significance for China. In general,Israeli-Palestinian conflictAgain undermined the United StatesGrand Strategy, and China has gained certain opportunities in the process.