The end of the year is approaching, soybean cake and corn are both changing, and corn production is increasing
Preface. Towards the end of 2023, soybean meal and cereals** have changed dramatically. Due to the large amount of tide grain entering the market, the supply has increased, but the soybean meal market has been affected by factors such as weak supply and demand, excessive supply, etc., and has declined sharply. This article is about the reasons for this change, and the direction of future development.
Grains in flux**.
Recently, the focus of the market has been mainly on the Northeast. Affected by many heavy snowfalls in northern China since November last year, there is less precipitation in northern China in winter. First, due to the rising temperatures, many farmers feel that the quality of corn has decreased significantly, and it is difficult to store it. In addition, as the temperature continues to drop, the corn buried in the ground will also be frozen. But by the end of November, as the weather cooled, farmers were less willing to stock up on grain, and they sold their grains. This has led to an increase in the supply of grain on the bottom grain threshing machine and on the drying table.
However, affected by the inventory of raw material enterprises and the recession of the breeding industry, there is not much demand for corn in the warehouse, and deep processing enterprises rely on the inertia of inventory. Therefore, in the Northeast, due to the relatively sufficient supply, the bullish ** has strengthened. At the same time, Hubei's demand for corn from Northeast China has also risen, resulting in a large inflow of imported corn. The intensive processing enterprises of agricultural products in Shandong have obtained more orders.
Although the volume of the corn market has fallen slightly in the last two days, it still remains high. On the whole, the current corn is a short-term downside and difficult. However, the author thinks that due to the increase in corn procurement enthusiasm in early December, some downstream grain-using enterprises will also build warehouses one after another, so in the short term, ** or will remain in the range of fluctuations.
Changes in soybean meal**.
In terms of soybean meal, domestic soybean meal ** has also been squeezed to a certain extent. Due to the recent downturn in the domestic soybean market, coupled with the fact that the export volume of soybeans in the United States is less than expected, the current U.S. soybean ** fluctuates in a narrow range between 1300-1400 yuan. This reduces the import cost of domestic soybeans, which in turn plays a role in the continuous development of soybean meal. According to the statistics of relevant departments, in November, forsythia soybean meal remained in a small mode, and closed at 3885 at the end of the month. In addition, with the continuation of soybean meal**, the import cost of domestic soybeans has also decreased.
In November, China's soybean imports reached 8.5 million metric tons, coupled with nearly 4.5 million tons of dumps last month, so that soybean oil factories have enough supplies and high operating rates, and soybean meal inventories have also increased greatly. Some oil companies are under pressure to overstock inventories. Therefore, in the long run, the supply of domestic soybean meal will be easier, because a large number of imports will lead to a decline in demand for animal husbandry. Soybean meal, in particular, is expected to be poor, and traders prefer to buy what they need rather than stock up. At present, the soybean meal transaction of major oil enterprises in the country is light, which further exacerbates the pressure on the soybean meal market.
Judging from the current situation, China's soybean imports in December are expected to be around 9.8 million metric tons, and the supply of soybean meal is still relatively tight, or will continue to fluctuate. At present, in several important coastal areas such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong, the spot price of soybean meal has dropped to 3880-3960 per ton. Since the high in early September, the cumulative decline of soybean meal has exceeded 1,100 yuan, and the overall ** is still in ** weak. However, there was some support for the Unit, as it remained in place under the influence of events such as the drought in Brazil. The subsequent trend mainly depends on the trend of US soybeans and the adjustment of domestic soybean producers.
The conclusion is: near the end of the year, the soybean meal and corn have "changed", the corn has continued to decline, and the soybean meal has also declined sharply. There are many factors that have contributed to this shift. In terms of corn in China, affected by heavy snowfall, the temperature continues to rise, resulting in the deterioration of grain quality, increasing the difficulty of storage, and affecting the willingness of grassroots farmers to sell grain. More supply and weaker demand led to a decline in cereals**. In terms of soybean meal, due to the weakness of U.S. soybeans and the fact that U.S. soybean exports are less than expected, soybean meal has led to soybean meal due to the influx of imported soybeans and the recession of animal husbandry, which has made soybean meal supply insufficient and consumption weak, making soybean meal fluctuate and trend in the market.