In 2023, China's economy will rebound and solidly promote high-quality development, but there are still some challenges to further promote economic development. ** The Economic Work Conference pointed out that, on the whole, the favorable conditions facing China's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the basic trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed, and it is necessary to enhance confidence and confidence.
In July 2023, the Beijing News launched the China Entrepreneur Confidence Index, which is a semi-annual survey of the target enterprises covering the whole country, and the survey mainly includes the overall profitability of enterprises, operating costs, industry development, expansion (compression) business plans and other aspects, mainly using Likert scale to quantify the reality.
With 2024 approaching, Beijing News Shell Finance launched a questionnaire survey of 186 entrepreneurs in various industries to see what changes they expect from the future economyWhat is the confidence in the business process and what are the expectations for the economy?And how will it be dealt with?In the face of the market environment of new technology iteration and diversified demand, what strategies and layouts do they have in 2024?
Overall, the average business confidence index of the surveyed companies was 712. An increase of 7 compared with the first half of the year5. The confidence index in the eight business latitudes has increased. The development confidence index of entrepreneurs in the potential of the industry still maintained the first place, with an average value of more than 80, an increase of 7 compared with the first half of the year6。
Discover the "confidence" of China's economic growth from the data, explore the dynamic curve of the market from the index changes, and gain insight into the "confidence code" of Chinese entrepreneurs through data.
1.The Entrepreneur Confidence Index rose to 712
Confidence in talent development and revenue capabilities increased the most.
A total of 186 entrepreneurs from more than 20 industries participated in the survey, more than half of them were large enterprises, and 551% of companies have been established for more than 10 years.
Overall, the average confidence index of the surveyed entrepreneurs was 712. An increase of 7 compared with the first half of the year5. The confidence index has increased in eight business latitudes.
The development confidence index of entrepreneurs in the potential of the industry still maintained the first place, with an average value of more than 80, an increase of 7 compared with the first half of the year6；Secondly, the confidence in the development of enterprises, which is 761。From the perspective of changes, the confidence index of talent training and revenue capacity is 722. The most growth. The cost control confidence index of the surveyed entrepreneurs was 689, an increase of 5 compared with the first half of the year5。
Surveyed entrepreneurs are still conservative about future profitability, and profit margin confidence is still in the last place among the eight business confidence indicators. However, it is worth noting that compared with the first half of the year, the profit margin confidence increased by 75, with an average of 630, which means that the surveyed entrepreneurs have good expectations for future profitability.
Compared with the first half of the year, more and more respondents have increased their confidence in the development of their enterprises and the industry in which they operate, with an average score increase of 063。According to the questionnaire survey, the average confidence score of the surveyed entrepreneurs in the development of the enterprise and the industry in 2024 is 735，78.9% of the surveyed entrepreneurs said that compared with the previous year, their confidence in the development of their enterprises and the industry has increased, and the respondents with a score of 8 are the most, accounting for 292%。It is worth noting that the proportion of entrepreneurs surveyed who scored less than 5 points has decreased, from 1234% to 7%, 141% of the companies surveyed said their confidence was unchanged from the previous year.
The data shows that the confidence of the surveyed entrepreneurs in the development of 2024 is positively correlated with their own scale, and the larger the enterprise, the higher the confidence in the future development, with the average score of medium-sized enterprises and large enterprises exceeding 735 points. China's small and micro enterprises have a large number and vitality, but their ability to resist risks is not as good as that of medium-sized and large enterprises, and how to boost the confidence of small and micro enterprises in development is still the key.
Compared to the first half of the survey, small business development confidence grew the fastest, from 616 to 689。In the past year, various localities and departments in China have introduced a series of policies and measures to help small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to support their development and boost their confidence. According to data previously released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, last year alone, more than 40 policies were introduced at the national level to support the development of small, medium and micro enterprises, driving more than 270 supporting policy documents issued by local governments.
2.What factors affect entrepreneur confidence?
The trend of economic growth and the intensification of market competition are the primary factors.
The economic environment remains the number one factor, with more than 70% of entrepreneurs surveyed saying that "unstable economic growth trends" will affect their confidence in the future development prospects of their companies. GDP in the first three quarters of this year was 913 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52%, to a certain extent, improve market expectations and boost the confidence of entrepreneurs.
At the same time, the 2023 ** Economic Work Conference mentioned that China's economy still has difficulties such as insufficient effective demand, and some industries have overcapacity, which urgently needs to be structurally adjusted. According to the survey data of Beijing News Shell Finance, the second factor affecting entrepreneurs' confidence has shifted from "changes in regulatory policies" to "intensified competition in the industry and market", 616% of respondents believe that "intensified competition in the industry and market will affect future confidence", an increase of 12 compared to the first half of the year9 percentage points.
In addition, with the increasing complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment, the scope of influence of the international situation on domestic enterprises has expanded. 40% of the respondents said that "the impact of the international situation on future development is confidence", an increase of 11 compared with the first half of the year4 percentage points. Comparing enterprises of different sizes, it can be found that for small enterprises, the problem of tight funds and high financing costs has become the third major factor affecting development confidenceFor medium-sized enterprises, the impact of regulatory policy changes is higher than that of industry and market competition.
3.How will the business develop in 2023?
More than eighty percent of the entrepreneurs surveyed said that their revenues were balanced or above.
The Beijing News Shell Finance Entrepreneur Confidence Index measures the development of enterprises in 2023 from seven dimensions, and finds that in each dimension, more than seventy percent of the surveyed entrepreneurs said that they are at the level of stable development and above, and the proportion of enterprises concentrated in the state of "stable development" and "good development" is the largest. Compared with the first half of the year, the company's revenue situation has further improved, and the proportion of surveyed enterprises in "extremely difficult" and "somewhat difficult" has dropped to 43% and 13%. 42.7% of entrepreneurs surveyed said that their revenue situation was "stable development", 335% are in "good development". In addition, 487% of the companies surveyed are in good shape in terms of R&D, 454% of the surveyed companies are in a good position in terms of talent development.
In 2023, the operating conditions of most enterprises will gradually recover, and more than eighty percent of the surveyed entrepreneurs said that their revenue capacity is balanced or above, 65% achieved double growth in revenue and profit, 124% is below the break-even state of revenue. If the business performance of the enterprise in 2023 is scored on a scale of 1-10 points (5 points for revenue balance, 10 points for revenue and profit growth), the overall average score is 637 points, an increase of 062 points.
4.What is the obvious improvement of the enterprise in 2023?
In the second half of the year, the consumer market rebounded significantly, and the financial situation was significantly boosted.
What aspects of business have improved this year?The improvement in overseas business is the most obvious, with 60% of entrepreneurs surveyed believing that there are more opportunities for external expansion. However, in the second half of the year, affected by the global downturn, the growth rate of China's total goods slowed down, and the overseas business sectors of some enterprises were blocked. According to the survey data, compared with the first half of the year, the proportion of surveyed entrepreneurs who believe that "there are more opportunities for external expansion" has decreased by 7 percentage points.
In the second half of the year, the improvement of business operations gradually shifted from external business to internal business, and 57% of the surveyed entrepreneurs felt that market demand had recovered significantly. The 2023 "** Work Report" proposes to focus on expanding domestic demand and give priority to the recovery and expansion of consumption;The Ministry of Commerce has also planned early to boost consumption, positioning 2023 as the "Year of Consumption Boost". In this context, whether it is online platforms, offline stores or live broadcast e-commerce, they all focus on boosting consumption. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first 11 months of 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4279 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%。This shows that the consumption situation is stable and improving, and has become one of the important driving forces for steady economic growth.
Compared to the first half of the year, the entrepreneurs surveyed had the biggest change in their perception of their financial situation. In this round of survey, 46% of entrepreneurs surveyed reported that their financial situation has improved, an increase of 13% compared to the first half of the year. At the same time, the first Chain Expo was held in Beijing, providing a platform for upstream and downstream industrial chain enterprises in different industries to promote the cooperation and development of enterprises. 42% of the surveyed entrepreneurs felt that the circulation of the industrial chain was smooth, an increase of 11 percentage points compared with the first half of the year.
In terms of segmentation, enterprises of different sizes have different feelings, small and micro enterprises have a more direct feeling of good market demand, while large and medium-sized enterprises feel more obvious that there are more opportunities for external expansion. This year, the domestic market has gradually recovered, and corporate orders have gradually increased. According to the survey of the National Bureau of Statistics, 5The production orders and operating conditions of 90,000 small and micro enterprises have generally improved, and the prosperity index has increased by 1 month-on-month5 percentage points.
5.What is the expected performance confidence in 2024?
With an 82% increase in the average value, the surveyed entrepreneurs will promote the development of their enterprises by optimizing their products.
The interviewed entrepreneurs are more confident in the performance expectations of enterprises next year, if the performance of enterprises next year, the score is 1-10 points (1 is serious loss, 5 is revenue balance, 10 is revenue and profit double growth), the average value is 672, exceeding entrepreneurs' business expectations for the second half of 2023. In this survey, 784% of respondents scored above 5 points, mainly concentrated in 6-8 points, 38% of respondents believe that companies will achieve both revenue and profit growth next year.
The manufacturing industry's expectations for the company's business performance next year are higher than those of other industries, with an average score of 711 points. Only one of the 27 manufacturing companies surveyed scored less than 5 points, and the rest of the manufacturing enterprises scored 7-8 points.
What will entrepreneurs do to improve the development of their businesses?Eighty-two percent of respondents said they would "optimize product or service quality to improve customer satisfaction." In addition, more than half of the surveyed entrepreneurs chose the three paths of "developing new business lines", "increasing R&D investment, improving product or service innovation", and "controlling costs and improving profit margins".
Through cross-analysis, the Beijing News Shell Finance reporter found that enterprises in different industries have different "priorities" in their choices, and the manufacturing industry is more inclined to increase R&D investment and improve the innovation of products or servicesThe culture, sports and entertainment industry is more inclined to explore new lines of business.
6 What to do in 2024?
62.7% of companies surveyed have expansion plans 454% chose "trot forward".
Overall, market competition is the number one factor influencing expansion plans, with more than half of the entrepreneurs surveyed making expansion plans due to increased market competition. **The Economic Work Conference pointed out that at present, China's economy still has the problem of insufficient domestic demand, and entrepreneurs are more inclined to tap potential demand through technological innovation. Survey data shows that the second biggest factor in entrepreneurs' decision to expand is that technology upgrades generate new businesses. In the last survey, market demand and technology upgrades were the second most important factors for generating new business, and in this round, 31% of respondents believe that market demand will be affected by the development of expansion plans. In addition, some entrepreneurs pursue economies of scale, hoping to reduce production costs by increasing profits on scale.
Enterprises of different sizes are at different stages of development, and the main factors that determine whether to expand are different. Due to the limitations of financial strength, technical foundation and other factors, micro enterprises will consider the existing business development situation. For medium-sized enterprises, in the environment of intensified competition, it is easier to take the lead in seizing the development "outlet" and achieve "corner overtaking".
In this survey, 62Seven percent of the entrepreneurs surveyed said they had plans to expand their business, a decrease in the proportion. 45.41% chose to "trot forward", which means that they will expand their business slightly173%, an increase compared to the first half of the year. 4 only86% of entrepreneurs have plans to reduce their business, and nearly 20% of the surveyed entrepreneurs are still in the "wait-and-see" stage, which will be adjusted according to the market situation and enterprise development next year.
More than 60% of respondents who plan to expand will invest more in new products and expand product or service offerings to improve their operations. The respondents who plan to reduce their business mainly start by optimizing their business layout to improve efficiency, and some companies will also reduce office costs and suspend non-profit businesses.
7.What difficulties will entrepreneurs encounter in 2023?
Nearly half of the entrepreneurs surveyed felt that the market was not in demand for effective demand and uncertainty was rising.
This year, a number of economic operation data continue to improve, but it is worth noting that the foundation for China's economic recovery still needs to be consolidated. This year's ** economic work conference pointed out that it is necessary to overcome some difficulties and challenges to further promote the economic recovery.
Among the surveyed entrepreneurs, the number of people who felt the problems of weak social growth expectations and the increasing complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment was the largest, accounting for 611%。At the same time, nearly half of the entrepreneurs surveyed felt that the effective demand in the market was insufficient, 465% believe that the pressure on production and operating costs will increase. According to the survey data, more than half of the surveyed entrepreneurs said that the operating costs of enterprises this year have increased compared with the first half of the year1% indicates a surge in costs.
The slowdown in global economic growth is most evident in large enterprises. The United Nations and the Development Conference report report that global economic growth will slow to 2 in 20234% compared to last year, economic growth slowed in most parts of the world, of respondents, 724% of large enterprises feel that the external environment is more complex, severe and uncertain. Insufficient market demand is still a problem for the development of micro-enterprises, and weak social growth expectations are the problems faced by most small and medium-sized enterprises.
8.What do entrepreneurs care about most in 2024?
Scientific and technological innovation, expansion of domestic demand, and opening up have attracted the most attention.
The 2023 ** Economic Work Conference will deploy up to 9 key tasks for next year, of which scientific and technological innovation and other related content have attracted the most attention of the interviewed entrepreneurs. From the beginning of the year to the end of the year, ChatGPT has driven the development of the entire science and technology industry, and this year's ** economic work conference proposed to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, especially to promote new industries, new models, new kinetic energy with disruptive technologies and cutting-edge technologies, and develop new quality productivity.
* For the second year in a row, the Economic Work Conference has focused on expanding domestic demand, with more than 70% of the entrepreneurs surveyed saying they will pay attention to this task, with the wholesale and retail trade, as well as the culture, sports and entertainment industries, paying more attention to it.
Which policies will become the focus of entrepreneurs next year?The development of the digital economy remains the focus, 762% of the respondents said that they would pay attention to the deployment of work related to "developing the digital economy and accelerating the development of artificial intelligence".The development of small and medium-sized enterprises is also the focus of entrepreneurs, 454% will pay attention to relevant policies to promote the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, the surveyed entrepreneurs ranked in the top five for the deployment of green consumption and green production.
This year's first economic work conference pointed out that next year we should adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, establishing first and then breaking down, and creating more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth, and stabilizing employment. 2024 is coming, and behind the confidence index** is the expectation and vision of entrepreneurs for the economy. As the largest engine of global economic growth, China will continue to ride the wind in 2024.