On December 18, North Korea launched the Hwasong-18 new intercontinental ballistic missile for the third time this year, and it was also the first intercontinental ballistic missile launched after the snowfall in winter. Kim Jong-un and his daughter, dressed in a pink coat, appeared at the launch site covered in snow. KCNA reported that the maximum launch height of the missile was 6,5182 km, slightly lower than the last test launch in July, flying 1002After 3 kilometers, it landed in the target water area in the eastern part of the peninsula, and the whole journey took 73 minutes and 35 seconds.
On December 18, Kim Jong-un and his daughter appeared at the Hwasong-18 new intercontinental ballistic missile launch training site. Photo: KCNA.
KCNA stressed that the background of the launch training was that "the enemy is intent on increasing regional tensions by expanding and forcibly targeting the largest military exercises in the history of our Republic every month, and has long hyped up plans for New Year's war drills that will be more detailed and aggressive in nature Xi Xi KCNA stressed. ”
Since November, with the termination of the relevant provisions of the 2018 "919 Military Agreement" between the DPRK and the ROK, the bilateral military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula has been escalating, the border posts of the "demilitarized zone" have resumed operation, the security personnel of both sides in Panmunjom have been redeployed to their posts, and the United States, Japan and South Korea have also launched the "North Korean Missile Early Warning Information Sharing System" on December 19. All this was called by the KCNA news agency "an ominous sign of the total destruction of the security environment on the Korean Peninsula." The most "coincidental" thing is that on the day that North Korea launched the "Hwasong-18", the South Korean side announced that the US and South Korean special forces would start a joint military exercise Xi to share "special operations technologies such as internal sweeping operations in the core area". Yonhap News Agency pointed out that the military's public rehearsal of Xi live footage is rare, and these images show South Korean and American special forces jointly infiltrating buildings to shoot character targets, which seems to be a "targeted 'decapitation' operation." However, the South Korean side then said that this exercise Xi had nothing to do with the "decapitation" operation. At present, it is unclear whether North Korea will make another move in response to this "provocation" by the South Korean and US military.
It is worth noting that North Korea's launch of an ICBM was a "launch training" rather than a "test launch." In North Korea's official statement, "test launch" is one of the links in research and development, and "launch training" is the daily drill of the troops. Historically, North Korea has conducted launch training after the official deployment of early intercontinental ballistic missiles such as the Hwasong-12.
In addition, this is the third time that Kim Jong-un's daughter has appeared at the ICBM launch site, but its nature is different from the previous two. In November last year, Kim Jong-un and his daughter watched the test launch of the "Hwasong-17" for the first time, which was also the official "debut" of Kim Jong-un's daughter. Since then, Kim Jong-un's daughter has appeared on many ceremonial occasions such as military parades and dinners. In April this year, when Kim Jong-un personally directed the first test launch of the Hwasong-18, Kim Jong-un's daughter, wife and sister Kim Yo-jong were all present at the scene**.
On December 18, Kim Jong-un and his daughter appeared at the Hwasong-18 new intercontinental ballistic missile launch training site. Photo: KCNA.
However, until the launch training, Mr. Kim's daughter had not appeared in the North Korean military's drills. In February, North Korea conducted its first combat intercontinental missile launch training since 2018, when Mr. Kim's daughter did not show up. The training was conducted by the 1st Red Banner Hero Company of the General Missile Administration using the mature "Hwasong-15" ICBMs instead of the "Hwasong-17" and "Hwasong-18" new missiles.
This time, the launch training was conducted by the 2nd Hongqi Company of the DPRK Missile Administration, and the missile used was the Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile newly developed by the DPRK. The missile was test-fired only twice in April and July this year. On the other hand, the "Hwasong-17" intercontinental ballistic missile, which has been tasked with the test-launch mission by the Hongqi First Company, has not yet been trained to be launched. Yonhap News Agency quoted an analysis as saying that the launch training means that the "actual combat deployment" of the "Hwasong-18" intercontinental missile is imminent.
On December 18, North Korea launched the Hwasong-18 missile. Figure Visual China.
According to the analysis, the DPRK may continue to conduct the "Hwasong-17" launch training in the near future to accelerate the actual combat deployment of the two intercontinental missiles, which also means the completion of the nuclear arsenal construction plan proposed by Kim Jong-un at the Eighth National Congress of the Workers' Party. But another possibility: North Korea is in no hurry to deploy the Hwasong-17.
The Hwasong-18 uses solid-fuel rockets to improve the mobility and survivability of North Korea's nuclear **, and the deployment of this type of intercontinental missile is a response to North Korea's recent attempts by South Korea and the United States to rebuild "nuclear deterrence against North Korea." In November, North Korea also conducted two ignition tests of solid-fuel rockets for medium-range missiles, and publicly proposed to upgrade its medium-range missiles with solid fuel. Considering North Korea's research and development of diversified missile launch platforms this year, as some US experts have said, if North Korea increases the mobility and survivability of its main strike force, the US deterrence of "one strike (ending the war)" against North Korea will be dissipated, and the two sides will have to finally return to the path of acknowledging the status quo and engaging through dialogue.
Issued in 202312.25. The 1122nd issue of China News Weekly.
Magazine title: North Korea launches "Hwasong-18" again
Reporter: Cao Ran.
Editor: Xu Fangqing.