"Some agencies ** 11 million, we think a little conservative. Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, is more optimistic, he believes that in 2024, China's new energy vehicle production and sales scale is expected to reach 13 million, with a growth rate of about 40% and an overall penetration rate of more than 40%. 
How to achieve a 13 million new energy market, 100 people will judge from multiple dimensions such as market, policy and technology. On the one hand, the PHEV (including extended range) market, the 100,000-150,000 passenger car market, and the third- and fourth-tier markets still have a lot of room for growth, which is expected to become the growth point of the new energy market. On the other hand, policies and technologies have paved the way for new energy vehicles and become a guarantee for sales to increase range.
However, it cannot be ignored that the market has a long way to go, the market share increases, the pressure will fall on the car companies, and the brand will usher in unprecedented competition. All car companies are gearing up and preparing to hit the decisive year of 2024.
Three market segments determine the trend of new energy
At the market segment level, Zhang Yongwei believesPHEV market, 100,000-150,000 passenger car market, sinking market (new energy to the countryside).It will become the main force of new energy vehicles in 2024.
PHEV (including extended range) is becoming a new driving force for the growth of new energy vehicles, and data shows that sales from January to November 2023 increased by 83% year-on-year5%。Zhang Yongwei**PHEV (including extended range) will contribute 1 3 new energy vehicle sales in 2024.
Chery unveiled the Kunpeng Super Hybrid C-DM
Domestic brands have accumulated technology in the field of PHEV for many years and have applied it to their products. For example, Geely Thor hybrid system, Great Wall Hi4 electric hybrid system, and Chery Kunpeng super hybrid. Although the technical routes are different, they have all been recognized by the market.
Geely Automobile Group launched models such as Geely Galaxy L7 and Geely Emgrand L HIP Champion Edition, Great Wall Motor Group launched models such as Haval Thunder MAX and Tank 400Hi4-T, Chery Automobile launched Chery Fengyun A8 at the end of 2023, and the Jie Tu Shanhai L9 has also been launched earlier.
Great Wall Hi4-T model
Many plug-in hybrid models have poured into the market, setting off a big explosion of hybrid technology. PHEV hybrid technology is recognized by the industry as the best transition product for electric transformation, which is more suitable for the current market. The industry believes that there is a lag in the transformation of new energy vehicle technology into market sales. The PHEV plug-in hybrid technology, which will be gradually improved from 2022 to 2023, is likely to set off further market sales in 2024.
It is worth noting that the sales of extended-range models will also increase significantly in 2023, and Zhang Xiang, director of the International Cooperation and Research Center for Vodaf Digital Vehicles, believes that the growth of sales of extended-range models has a lot to do with the outbreak of Li Auto and AITO. Li Auto's sales exceeded 50,000 units in December 2023, bringing its annual sales to 376,000 units. AITO Wenjie sold 24,468 units in December 2023 and 9 units for the year440,000 units.
Li Auto L Series
Li Xiang, CEO of Li Auto, said that in 2024, Li Auto will challenge annual sales of 800,000 units. Yu Chengdong, Executive Director of the Board of Directors of Huawei and Chairman of the Intelligent Vehicle Solution BU, said that the monthly delivery capacity of Wenjie is expected to exceed 30,000 vehicles in 2024.
According to the expected deliveries of Li Auto and AITO, the extended-range model will contribute new growth to the PHEV plug-in hybrid market in 2024.
Data shows that from January to November 2023, the sales of new energy vehicles with a transaction price of 100,000-150,000 yuan increased by more than 60% year-on-year. Zhang Yongwei predicts that in 2024, 100,000-150,000 yuan A-class cars and B-class sedans will become key incremental markets, which will contribute 1 3 new energy sales.
BYD Qin PLUS DM-i
According to the industry's comprehensive sales data, 6 of the top 10 A-class car sales in 2023 have new energy configurations, of which all the configurations of Qin Plus are new energy models, and it is worth mentioning that this model ranks first in A-class car sales.
A-class car users are more sensitive to daily car expenses, and some of them are online car-hailing users. According to the data of the Passenger Association, the new energy penetration rate of A-class vehicles in 2023 will be 23%, the lowest among all class models, and there is still a lot of room for improvement.
In addition, in the B-segment new energy vehicle market, models such as Wuling Starlight and Deep Blue SL03 have become new growth points, attracting consumers through higher configurations. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, believes that the new energy penetration rate of B-class vehicles will increase significantly to more than 39 in 20235%, the average annual improvement rate is very fast.
Wuling Xingguang Zhang Hong, secretary general of the new energy vehicle branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association, pointed out that in recent years, consumers are more inclined to wait and see, and low-end models are more popular in the market in the context of the first war.
According to the data of the China Passenger Car Association, in 2023, the proportion of new energy vehicles will reach 50% in the A-class and B-class in pure electric vehicles, and the total proportion of A-class and B-class in plug-in hybrids will reach 92%. It can be seen that A-class and B-class cars are the main categories of new energy growth.
The data shows that from January to November 2023, the penetration rate of new energy in third- and fourth-tier cities is close to that of 2022.
Level of first- and second-tier cities. Zhang Yongwei predicts that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the sinking market will exceed 1 3 in 2024.
According to the news, Henan, Xinjiang and other places have recently promoted charging piles to the countryside, which can better support new energy vehicles to the countryside. Shandong also plans to carry out 100 new energy activities in the countryside in 2024. On the whole, the policy has laid a good foundation, combined with activities such as new energy vehicle consumption vouchers, the sales of new energy vehicles in third- and fourth-tier cities are expected to further increase.
Policy first, technology paves the way
The rapid development of the new energy industry is inseparable from policy support and technical support. The "Work Plan for the Steady Growth of the Automobile Industry" points out that it supports the expansion of new energy vehicle consumption, and proposes to implement the existing new energy vehicle purchase tax policy and organize new energy vehicles to go to the countryside.
The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions have extended the new energy purchase tax reduction and exemption policy in 2023, and the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2024 can still enjoy a 30,000 yuan exemption quota, which means that consumers buy 33New energy vehicles within 90,000 yuan can continue to subsidize the full purchase tax.
It is worth mentioning that at this stage, the main models of new energy vehicles are still 150,000-300,000 yuan, all of which are included in the new energy reduction and exemption policy, which will also help further sales growth in 2024.
On the other hand, new energy technology has accumulated to a certain extent in 2023 and will usher in an explosion in 2024, which will also help promote the development of new energy vehicles.
Zhang Yongwei Zhang Yongwei predicts that large cylindrical batteries will be mass-produced on a large scale, and lithium iron phosphate is also evolving. Compared to prismatic batteries, cylindrical batteries have a higher upper limit of energy density and are more safe. It can be divided into two categories: small cylinders and large cylinders, the former is a mature product, and the latter has just entered the market.
Large cylindrical battery.
According to the existing news, BYD has begun to deploy large cylindrical batteries in 2023, and has applied for a patent for positive hexagonal prismatic cells, which are also regarded by the industry as a variant of large cylindrical batteries.
In December 2023, Sunwoda said on the investor platform that it had planned and was developing large cylindrical batteries. EVE also said that the large cylindrical battery factory has been built at the Jingmen base. The secretary of the board of directors of EVE said that large cylindrical batteries have obvious advantages in terms of economy, safety and utilization value.
At present, Tesla, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, General Motors and other car companies have announced the use of large cylindrical batteries, which can effectively improve the range of electric vehicles due to the increase in the energy density of large cylindrical batteries.
Zhijie S7 Huawei "Giant Whale" 800V high-voltage battery platform
In addition to battery technology, the development of charging technology is also contributing to the popularization of new energy vehicles. Zhang Yongwei**, 800V high-voltage fast charging and 5C ultra-rechargeable batteries will be launched on a variety of models.
At this stage, Xiaopeng, Zhiji, Ideal, Zeekr, Jihu and other brands have been equipped with 800V high-voltage fast charging technology on new cars, it is worth mentioning that models with prices in the range of 200,000 such as Zeekrypton 007 and Jihu Alpha T5 already have 800V supercharging platform, which also indicates that 800V supercharging technology has begun to popularize to mid-range new energy models.
Ideal 5C Supercharger
In addition, CATL Kirin batteries, Shenxing super rechargeable batteries, Juwan Technology fast rechargeable batteries, Haobo flash rechargeable batteries, etc., have reached the 4C or 5C level. Equipped with the above batteries, there are Xingtu Star Era ES, ZEEKR 007, Wenjie M9, Hechuang V09 and other models.
If it is equipped with an 800V high-voltage fast charging platform and a 4C fast-charging battery at the same time, then after 10 minutes of charging, it can be charged to about 53 kWh and complete a range of about 500 kilometers.
On the whole, the development of technology has greatly alleviated the range anxiety of new energy vehicles, and fundamentally solved consumers' concerns about buying new energy vehicles.
The year 2024 is both high and bad, but also life and death
2023 is a year of concentrated explosion in China's new energy vehicle market, and in this year alone, there areMore than 1,100 new energy modelsListed. Entering 2024, the involution of new energy vehicles will not end, but will only continue to involute at a higher level, from volume to volume technology.
For example, Great Wall Motors said in 2023 that the future of new energy vehicles is not to roll up but to roll technology, and the solution to "anxiety" is not to fight the first war, but to return to the original intention of making cars.
With the intelligent configuration, the speed of chip replacement is increasing, and the life cycle of new models is also shortening. Moore's law exists in the chip industry, and chip products must be updated once every 18 months. Zhang Yongwei believes that automobile products will also enter the "Moore era", and the replacement cycle of automobile products will also be shortened to 12 to 18 months.
It is worth noting that the success of Wenjie and Zhijie indicates that mobile phone manufacturers have begun to enter the automotive industry across borders. At the end of 2023, Xiaomi Auto will hold a technology conference, and Xiaomi Auto SU7 will also be released in 2024.
Xiaomi Car SU7
In the era of intelligent new energy vehicles, Huawei, Xiaomi and other companies in the communication field have inherent advantages in intelligence, which will not only bring a new definition to new energy vehicles, but also challenge other new energy vehicle brands.
It is foreseeable that in 2024, the release of new energy vehicles will be more intensive, the new energy vehicle market will be larger, and the competition will be more intense. Li Xueyong, deputy general manager of Chery Automobile Co., Ltd., said at the Chery Fengyun A8** exchange meeting that the market will be under great pressure in 2024, and the competition will be more bloody.
The industry generally believes that the period from 2024 to 2025 will be a decisive year for new energy brands, and after these two years, it will basically determine the new energy market pattern. Cui Dongshu believes that the core of car manufacturing is to require its own strength.
Daniel Zhang, CEO of Nezha Automobile, once said that sales of 300,000 to 500,000 vehicles can only break even. Industry analysts expect that in the next two to three years, 60%-70% of brands will face shutdown and turnover.
Xpeng X9
Zhang Yongwei bluntly said that in 2024, other industries will still have a chance to breathe, and they can take a breather when they are tired. The new energy vehicle industry can only run faster and faster, without stopping, slowing down, and respite.
On the first day of the first year of 2024, Xpeng Motors released Xpeng X9, and Changan Qiyuan announced its cooperation with Jay Chou. Xiaomi SU7 has not yet been launched, and the same level of Extreme Krypton 007 and Geely Galaxy E8 have been rolled up in configuration. It can be said that in the first week of 2024, the new energy vehicle market has been full of gunsmoke.
2024 will be the best year, with consumers having more choices and buying better configurations with lower **. This will also be the most difficult year, car companies will have to use their lifelong learning to make better products and work hard to survive.