On December 1, the China Index Research Institute released data that the average second-hand residential properties in 100 cities across the country in November were 15,400 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month increase of 056%, a decline of 011 percentage points. The number of second-hand housing listings in key cities remains high, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and second-hand housing prices are still facing downward pressure.
In November, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the four super first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen was higher than that in October, and the first range of transaction volume in Beijing ranked first. According to data released by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the number of online signatures for second-hand houses in November was 12,545, an increase of 17 from the previous month8%, a year-on-year increase of 167%。
According to data released by the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, 3,133 second-hand houses were sold in November, an increase of 12 from the previous month9%, a year-on-year increase of 445%。According to data released by the Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediary Industry Association, from October 26, 2023 to November 25, 2023, 10,182 second-hand housing units were signed online in Guangzhou, an increase of 877%, an increase of 83 percent year-on-year69%。According to data released by the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, a total of 16,173 second-hand houses were traded in November, about 7 percent month-on-month12%。
According to data released by the Zhejiang News Real Estate Research Institute, 8,801 second-hand houses were traded in Hangzhou in November, compared with 6,277 units in October**402%, compared with 5,752 units in November last year**53%. The transaction volume of Gongshu District, Shangcheng District and Xihu District increased significantly, the transaction volume of Linping District and Fuyang District was slightly **, and the willingness of residents to improve their demand was obvious, and the proportion of second-hand houses with a total price of less than 3 million yuan declined, and the proportion of transactions of 3 million to 8 million yuan increased.
The "policy effect" of the real estate market is obvious in the short term, and the combined new policies introduced in October and before basically reached the peak of the effect in November, and the maximization effect and effect maximization are manifested in the concentrated release of effective demand. Hangzhou has repeatedly introduced property market policies since October. On October 16, the scope of Hangzhou's purchase restriction was reduced to four main urban areas: Shangcheng District, Gongshu District, Xihu District, and Binjiang District, where households with household registration in Hangzhou can buy 2 houses in the restricted area, and non-registered families with a record of paying urban social security or individual income tax in the urban area of Hangzhou can buy 1 house in the restricted area.
Hangzhou has cancelled the purchase restriction on foreclosure houses, extended the term of provident fund loans, and reduced the down payment ratio of the first set in restricted areas to 25% and 20% in non-restricted areas. In addition to the policy effect, the rebound in the transaction volume of first-hand houses and non-price-limited second-hand houses in hot cities in the real estate market is actually driven by the "superposition effect" of policies and policies. The seller made adjustments on the **, and many owners took the initiative to lower the listing price, and the transaction volume rose rapidly with the price reduction in place. In Hangzhou's November transactions, price reductions accounted for 946%, and 735%, and the price reduction of 5%-10% accounts for 146%。
On November 30, economist Ren Zeping posted on social ** that real estate is the first pillar industry, and the housing market is stable The economy is stable, employment is stable, and finance is stable. The first move is to set up a housing bank to acquire the developer's land and inventory commercial housing for rental housing and affordable housing, the second move is to completely cancel the purchase restrictions, and the third move is to significantly reduce the interest rate of the stock housing loan.
"It is not prescient to use Hangzhou and other cities in the property market downturn many years ago to buy back unsalable houses and low-cost houses and use them as public rental housing." The strength of the "three moves" is not enough to "wait", and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou will not fully cancel the purchase restrictions for the time being, but for example, Hangzhou Linping District has implemented a loan discount policy for time-limited house purchases, implemented the "mortgage transfer" of second-hand housing transactions, and used the provident fund to pay for the down payment of the house.