The shipment of "going north" led to profit-taking, and the national team made efforts to regain 2,930 points
Today's news:
[U.S. stocks opened higher and closed higher, and the three major indexes collectively closed higher].U.S. stocks opened higher and closed higher overnight, with the three major indexes collectively closing higher, and the Nasdaq up 126%, the S&P 500 rose 103%, the Dow rose 087%。Large technology stocks rose, Tesla rose about 3%, Nvidia, Google, Amazon, and Meta rose more than 1%. Airline stocks across the board**, United Airlines rose more than 3%, and American Airlines rose more than 2%.
[The maximum 3-year period is only 2.]35%！After 3 months, the bank lowered the deposit interest rate again].According to the reporter's understanding, since December 22, the state-owned banks will start a new round of deposit interest rate adjustment, which is only more than three months after the last round of centralized adjustment (September 1). On the afternoon of December 21, ICBC took the lead in "officially announcing" this adjustment plan on the mobile banking APP, with a maximum reduction of 25bp consistent with the previous round of adjustment, but the scope of adjustment is larger, and the prime interest rate level of some deposit varieties will also be optimized. Some bankers told reporters that in the context of the recovery of credit demand less than expected and the pressure on interest margins, small and medium-sized banks have greater momentum to follow up and adjust in the face of market pricing competition pressure on the asset side. However, some industry insiders pointed out that considering the different asset and liability management strategies of various banks, especially at the end of the year, they are facing pressure to collect reserves, and the time, rhythm and magnitude of follow-up may be different.
[The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a symposium!]It is related to mergers and acquisitions].Recently, the Shanghai Stock Exchange held a symposium on mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in Shanghai. Experts at the meeting said that since the comprehensive registration system, new policies for market-oriented reform of mergers and acquisitions have been issued one after another, and positive signals have created a good opportunity for the development of mergers and acquisitions business, but there are still relatively few major mergers and acquisitions and restructuring projects in the field of science and technology, and there is still room for improvement of relevant support policies, and market vitality still needs to be further stimulated. The reporter learned that the regulatory authorities are actively studying the establishment and improvement of the "green channel" for the merger and reorganization of technology-based enterprises that break through key core technologies, optimize the "small and fast" review mechanism, and implement the inclusive policy of appropriately improving the valuation of asset-light technology-based enterprises.
[The valuation of A-shares is at a historical low, pay attention to the opportunity of over-falling in the market next year].After more than two years of adjustment, A-shares are expected to usher in an over-falling opportunity, which is the common view of some foreign institutions. For example, Gao Ting, chief strategic analyst of Nomura Oriental International**, said on December 19 that the valuation of the A** field is now lower than that of the beginning of 2016 and the end of 2018, and in such an extreme situation, the future valuation repair is worth paying attention to. Goldman Sachs believes that the improvement in the economic situation is expected to promote the recovery of corporate earnings, and maintains an "overweight" stance on A-shares because the valuation of A-shares is at a historically low level. Even Morgan Stanley, which has a cautious view on A-shares since 2023, believes that A-shares will pick up in 2024. Recently, Morgan Stanley set the target point of the CSI 300 Index at 3,850 points by the end of 2024.
[Nearly eighty percent of private equity companies have gradually become the consensus of leading institutions in the balanced layout of the market outlook].Recently, the A** market has intensified, but private equity is still actively deploying opportunities in the coming year. According to the latest survey data of the private placement network, nearly eighty percent of private placements believe that in the context of the gradual recovery of the economy and the continuous improvement of overseas liquidity, A-shares are expected to rise next year. As of December 8, the average of **strategic private placement** has risen for 3 consecutive weeks, and medium-sized institutions have increased their positions significantly. From the perspective of investment opportunities, a number of tens of billions of private equity believe that after extreme differentiation, the market style is expected to return to equilibrium next year, and there are investment opportunities in both value stocks and growth stocks.
[The central bank's net investment in the open market is 281 billion yuan].The central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 40 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 180%, the same as before;A 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 291 billion yuan was carried out, and the winning interest rate was 195%, the same as before. Due to the expiration of 50 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase today, a net investment of 281 billion yuan was realized.
[The financing balance of the two cities increased by 14.]4.4 billion yuan].As of December 21, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 83493.3 billion yuan, an increase of 33.8 billion yuan;The financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was reported at 75656.3 billion yuan, an increase of 11 from the previous trading day0.6 billion yuan;The total of the two cities is 159149.6 billion yuan, an increase of 14 from the previous trading day4.4 billion yuan].
[The net outflow of northbound funds was 2.2 billion yuan].As of noon**, there was a net outflow of 223.8 billion.
This morning, ** opened 1 point 2919 points higher, bottomed out 22907 points, rushed up 2935 points, and closed 2933 points before noon. SSE 50, CSI 300, SSE Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, STAR Market, CSI 500, CSI 1000 rose. 30%。*The change-to-change ratio is 2345:2733, and the change-limit ratio is 32:0. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 423.6 billion, a decrease of 45.4 billion from the previous trading day.
On Thursday, the bottom was 2882 points, a new low on October 31 last year, and then the national team and northbound funds worked together to do long, **40 points, 2900 points were lost, and the majority of investors who were nervous were slightly relieved.
Below 2900 points yesterday, who mainly copied the bottom?I think it's the national team and social security**, how can you see it?
One of the reasons is that the six major banks announced interest rate cuts last night, which is when the world's central banks are just beginning to stop raising interest rates, the People's Bank of China is the first to cut interest rates, and the longer the deposit life, the more it will fall. This news is obviously only known in advance to those who are close to the water.
The second reason is that after shorting the northbound funds for 5 months, after a net inflow of more than 3 billion yuan yesterday afternoon, it was suppressed backhandedly, and only a net inflow of 1.2 billion was made. Today, when they heard that the interest rate cut was good, they were still unwilling to go up, and there was a continuous net outflow after the opening, up to 4.5 billion. triggered the profit-taking of the market, which suppressed the market to 2907 points. However, the national team refused to probe below 2900 points, and through the four major ETFs and four major bank stocks, the force rose sharply, pulling ** to 2935 points, closing at 2933 points before noon, recovering the key level of 2930 points. This move is obviously to defend the achievements of the national team and social security below 2900 points, and not to give other investors a chance to dip below 2900 points for a second time.
The third reason is that at present, it is rare to be in a state of big bottom at the same time, and the average price-earnings ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen is only 116 times, lower than the valuation of 2638 points in 2016 and 1664 points in 2008, and half lower than the valuation of the Beijing Stock Exchange and the United States, Europe, Japan and India, the national team and social security ** have no reason not to be resolute**.
The fourth reason is that when the Shanghai Composite Index has hit a new low in more than 1 year, the Shenzhen Component Index has hit a new low in more than 4 years, the ChiNext has hit a new low in 3 years and 9 months, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board has hit a record low, the national team and social security, as "patient capital", have the unshirkable responsibility to stabilize China's capital market.
Today, the 3-year bank deposit rate fell to 195%, quite shocking. For depositors in banks, you might as well look up at China**, in the current position, instead of depositing in the bank, it is better to buy the four major bank stocks, and the dividend rate can be 5%-6% in just half a year. If you have the mentality of investing for half a year, the profit in half a year can exceed the accumulated interest of the bank for 3 years, so why not. As long as there is a mindset that ignores the fluctuations of the stock price during the period, it is fine. Therefore, after the opening of the market this morning, even if it is a bottom of 2907 points, the four major stocks are all in the red, and it is obvious that some savings funds have begun.
Of course, starting next week, winter planting is the best time. At a position close to 2900 points, it is an excellent layout period for winter sowing and spring harvest.
Yesterday, when the CSI ** rose, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 reappeared the seesaw effect, diving from 1085 points to 973 points, 169 of the 234 shares fell by more than 10%-22%, and 1184 points and 1085 points were suspected of building a double head. With the success of the Shanghai and Shenzhen ** bottoming, the capital entering the Beijing Stock Exchange will inevitably return to Shanghai and Shenzhen**. After fighting for a month or two on the Beijing Stock Exchange, the tour capital and large investors are facing the choice of taking profit and stop loss because they have lost the advantage of valuation. The Beijing Stock Exchange fell 7% yesterday, with a volume of 22.7 billion, and continued to fall this morning, with a rise and fall ratio of 48:184, which is still a shipment, but it is facing the problems of shrinking volume, not taking orders, and shipping difficulties.
Afternoon attention: **Can the lower part close above the 5-day line at 2923 points?Can the upper side close above the key level of 2930?Will the national team continue to stabilize its pull-up?Can the northbound capital change from a net outflow of 2.2 billion to a net inflow?2345:2733 ** down more up less situation can be improved?Can the trading volume be above 750 billion?