The inventory is full, and the peak is staggered;Insufficient demand, staggered peaks;** Sluggish, staggered. In recent years, peak staggering seems to have become a "lifesaver" for the cement industry.
However, the number of days of staggered kiln shutdown across the country is increasing rapidly year by year, but the effect of staggered production is weakening year by year. Especially this year, as the contradiction between supply and demand has become more acute, the impact of staggered kiln shutdown on cement has been greatly weakened. What do people in the cement industry think about off-peak production?China Cement Network interviewed Li Rongshan, Secretary General of Suzhou Cement Association. 
Li Rongshan introduced that cement staggered peak production originated from the Northeast in 2014. At that time, it was winter, and the people in Northeast China needed a large amount of coal for heating, and coal burning was very tense for a while, so in line with the principle of production giving way to life, the cement plant began to stagger production.
Li Rongshan pointed out that the staggered production of cement plants can not only solve the problem of coal consumption for heating by the people, but also have the following five benefits:
1. Help alleviate the problem of excess capacity in the cement industry and avoid vicious competition in the industry caused by blind production, thereby improving the utilization value of resources.
2. A large amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) will be produced in the cement production process, so reducing clinker production is an important means to reduce carbon emissions, which is in line with the national carbon emission reduction policy.
3. From environmental considerations, staggered production can help reduce air pollution, especially in winter and during the rainy season, when the cement market demand is low, and plant shutdowns can reduce soot pollution emissions from coal burning.
Fourth, promote technological innovation. Staggered production is generally carried out in non-peak seasons, which provides enterprises with a time window for technological transformation and helps to promote the progress of manufacturing technology.
Fifth, off-peak production helps to balance the relationship between supply and demand, stabilize cement, and is beneficial to consumers and enterprises. In general, cement off-peak production is a win-win policy, which is not only conducive to the protection of the environment, but also conducive to the healthy development of the industry and the protection of consumers' rights and interests. Since 2014, this mature experience has gradually been promoted to North China, South China and even the whole country. After years of practice, cement off-peak production has become an important measure of normalization during the period when cement production capacity has not been greatly reduced.
In order to make time and space for reducing production capacity, the state formulated the "Guiding Catalogue for the Structural Adjustment of the Cement and Glass Industry" in 2019 to clarify the backward production capacity of cement that will be eliminated. In 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced the revised Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Cement Industry. The actual situation is: first, the cement hollow kiln, the machine vertical kiln, the wet kiln, the vertical kiln, the diameter of 3 meters (exclusive) below the cement mill has been eliminated, second, the capacity replacement implementation method to a certain extent exhausted the increase of cement production capacity, three, the cement capacity replacement is mostly a daily output of 2500 tons of clinker (inclusive) below the production line, and these production lines are difficult to reach the energy consumption benchmark production line to a certain extent, the future is on the verge of elimination, the replacement of these production capacity is reactivated, the negative impact on the shrinkage of cement production capacity. In addition, it must be noted that although the new clinker production line is reduced and replaced according to the proportion specified in the policy, the actual production capacity is often much larger than the approved design capacity, which is generally 1About 2 times. At the same time, according to the implementation measures for replacement, the two in one can be replaced in equal proportions in the region. Therefore, in some places, there is a phenomenon that capacity replacement not only does not decrease, but increases production capacity.
Li Rongshan pointed out that there are usually two ways to reduce production capacity. First, the market mechanism. With quality, environmental protection, energy consumption, safety, performance, survival of the fittest. 2. Administrative means. With industrial planning, industry restructuring, and asset optimization, the company will be closed, stopped, merged, and transferred. The former, reducing production capacity, long time, and low input cost. The latter, reducing production capacity, has quick results, and has a large input cost, but it involves many policy issues.
In addition to the above two ways, an effective way to restrict cement production capacity at present and in the future is a combination of administration and market, that is, carbon emission trading. In 2020, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People's Republic of China formulated the Administrative Measures for Carbon Emission Trading (for Trial Implementation). The measures stipulate that the Ministry of Ecology and Environment shall formulate a plan for the determination and allocation of total carbon emission allowances in accordance with the national greenhouse gas emission control requirements, combined with factors such as economic growth, industrial structure, energy structure optimization, and coordinated control of air pollutant emissions. This major measure actually determined the total amount of cement production capacity, and after the cement companies finally got the free allocation quota, they were pushed to the carbon emission trading market. If companies want to expand their production capacity, they can only reduce energy consumption, reduce CO2 emissions, or go to the trading market for a fee. Enterprises with high energy consumption and increased CO2 emissions can only reduce production capacity or even withdraw from the market. On January 5 this year, according to the legislative plan, the interim regulations on the management of carbon emission trading were formulated, and the regulations have a clearer definition of the legal attributes of carbon emission rights, which is not only conducive to the expansion of the national carbon emission trading market, but also conducive to the extension of financial business in the field of green and low-carbon.
To sum up, first, cement staggered production, only reduce output, not reduce production capacity. In the context of serious overcapacity of cement, the implementation of off-peak production has the advantages of alleviating overcapacity, balancing the contradiction between supply and demand, and reducing air pollution, and will become an effective measure for normalization at this stage.
Second, the replacement capacity can reduce production capacity and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial technology, and the replacement capacity method needs to be further revised, refined and improved.
Third, to solve the serious overcapacity of cement, through the market, administrative channels, but carbon emission trading is the most effective means to control cement production capacity at a lower cost, and it is also an international practice.
Fourth, with the strict implementation of the dual carbon goals, carbon emission quotas are becoming more and more tightened, so carbon emission quotas will become a scarce resource, and carbon prices will only get higher and higher.